The Philadelphia Phillies have to do something they’ve rarely done in the last decade to cash one of their most popular futures bets.

We’re talking 2024 win total, which sits at 89.5 or 90.5 depending on what sportsbook you’re using.

That’s a fair number considering the Phillies last season won 90 games for the first time since 2011, and are expected to at least remain in the same spot in the National League East this year. FanDuel lists the win total at 89.5, while DraftKings has it at 90.5. The over is even-money for DK’s prop, while FD listed both the over and under at -110.

The Phillies are one of the deepest teams one through seven in the batting order. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and a healthy Bryce Harper are probably going to hit a lot of bombs this summer at Citizens Bank Park. Harper’s return to full strength could be the X-factor in winning or losing a few games. Keep in mind that the Phillies entered June at 25-31 last season, then ripped off 65 wins after that. So when you’re going through the various PA sportsbooks and NJ sports betting apps, remember that the Phils looked like a completely different team once they got through the early part of the 2023 schedule.

Rhys Hoskins’ move to Milwaukee would have affected the Phillies’ lineup a lot more had he been in the order for most of the 2023 season, but we already know what it looks like without him due to his long-term injury from a year ago.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are expected to be in the NL Cy Young conversation and Ranger Suarez is reliable as they come in the No. 3 role.

The bullpen seems far more stable without Craig Kimbrel, so that should not be much of a concern closing out the quality starts from the top pitchers.

Then it comes down to Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez at the back end of the rotation. Walker is what he is at this point of his career. He started at least 29 games and threw over 150 innings in each of his last three seasons, but his ERA topped 4.0 in two of those campaigns. Sanchez improved as the regular season went on in 2023, but he has not had a full year as a starter in the majors.

Even if Walker and Sanchez struggle, the Phillies should at least be in contention to win a majority of the Nola, Wheeler, and Suarez starts.

The schedule also matters. The Phils play 16 of their first 22 games at Citizens Bank Park, with 13 of those games against the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox. There’s also 14 home games in May, plus early-season road series against bad teams, like the Rockies and Los Angeles Angels.

The bad part, though, is only 10 home games in September, two extended August road trips, and a late August home stand against the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.

Translation: The Phillies need to stack wins in April and May for any win total bets to feel comfortable.

Kinkead: I’d add that the number of 90+ win teams in Major League Baseball has fallen in the eight to twelve range over the past half decade. The Dodgers and Braves will be there this season. Astros, Rangers, Orioles, likely 90-100 win type teams. Then a couple of teams in the A.L. East and perhaps the Diamondbacks as well. The Phillies are right in the thick of it, and unless we get surprising seasons from one or more N.L. Central teams, and/or an overperformer like the Mariners or Twins, I feel like I’m leaning towards the over 90. I’m just not sure who else would enter that conversation.