Super Bowl 58: A Look at Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce Player Props
The superstars on the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs that have dominated your television screens this season are expected to play massive roles in deciding Super Bowl 58.
You could spend hours going through NJ sports betting apps and scanning PA sportsbooks for Super Bowl player props, of which there are many. Among the wide-ranging offers, Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey should be the most popular non-quarterbacks.
But finding actual “value” on the two stars is tough because the prop lines are so sharp.
Christian McCaffrey
- Over/Under 91.5 Rushing Yards
- Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
- Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
- Anytime TD Scorer (-215)
McCaffrey’s anytime TD scorer price is the lowest it’s been in weeks, which is absurd in its own right.
The 49ers running back scored a pair of rushing touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. His 2 TD price is +240 at FanDuel and +245 at DraftKings. That’s a lower price than all but seven players to score a single touchdown in Super Bowl 58.
McCaffrey hit the 90-yard mark on the ground in both playoff contests. He had 11 receptions for 72 yards, but it must be noted he had seven catches against the Packers because Deebo Samuel was out injured.
The Chiefs held the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens to under 85 team rushing yards and their 182-yard concession on the ground against the Buffalo Bills was inflated by 72 yards from Josh Allen. None of Buffalo’s running backs had more than 62 yards.
Kansas City allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards and 13th-fewest receptions to opposing running backs this season.
Those numbers, plus San Francisco’s pass-game variety with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle may make it difficult for McCaffrey to cruise over his receiving props.
Travis Kelce
- Over/Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
- Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
- Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Kelce’s receptions and receiving yard props are higher than at any point of the postseason.
The oddsmakers had to shift his totals up to the 70-yard mark after he had 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.
Kelce has crossed the 70-yard threshold in each of his last 12 postseason appearances. He had at least seven receptions in nine of those games. There’s heavy correlation between Kelce’s reception and receiving yards props going over together. He only averaged above 15 yards per reception in one of those 12 games. We will most likely see a bunch of 10-15-yard pass hookups between him and Patrick Mahomes.
Kelce found the endzone in 10 of his last 12 postseason games. He scored on one of his six catches against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57. He did not score in Super Bowl 55, but he did have 10 receptions for 133 yards.
The 49ers had trouble containing Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship Game. The Detroit tight end had nine catches for 97 yards. Green Bay’s duo of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft combined for six receptions, but they only had 23 yards between them.
San Francisco had mixed results covering the top tight ends in the NFL this season. T.J. Hockenson had 11 catches for 86 yards against them, but the 49ers also held Evan Engram and David Njoku under 40 yards. Hockenson, Njoku, Engram, LaPorta, Kelce, and Kittle were the top six tight ends in receiving yards in the regular season.