The Philadelphia Phillies play their first game on the west coast in 2024 on Friday night against the San Diego Padres. The Phils are the slightest of favorites with Aaron Nola on the mound against Joe Musgrove, but the numbers put up by both hurlers so far in 2024 suggest the Phils should be favored by a bit more.

Musgrove enters Friday with an ERA over two points higher than Nola and he’s given up at least five hits in all of his six starters. On the other hand, Nola has not allowed more than four hits in a single start since his first appearance of the season. Nola allowed three earned runs on eight hits while striking out 16 batters over 15.1 innings. Of course, it’s worth noting those two appearances came against the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox, but they also served as a huge confidence boost for Nola to keep up that form.

Nola’s outs prop sits at 18.5, while his hits allowed prop is at 5.5. The under on Nola’s hits allowed might be the best bet you can make for the entire game.

Speaking of the Rockies, the Padres lost two of three in Colorado this week and they are 3-5 in their last eight games despite being second in the majors in hits behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Phillies are 6-2 in their last eight game and they scored at least five runs in each of their last seven victories. The Phils’ team run total sits at 3.5 with the over at -146 for Friday night’s game. If you think that scoring trend keeps up, they are +124 at FanDuel and +130 at DraftKings to hit over 4.5 runs.

Five hitters in the Phillies lineup have more than 10 at-bats against Musgrove in their careers. Nick Castellanos has the best batting average versus the Padres righty among that group. Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto all have a home run versus him. Bryce Harper does not have a dinger off Musgrove, but he does have new dad strength that he flexed in Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon. He is +370 to go yard for a second straight day.

I would also look into the Phillies at +100 on the series money line on DK. Ranger Suarez is going head-to-head with Dylan Cease on Saturday, so they could win two straight games. Two strong performances from Nola and Suarez could lead to a full-strength bullpen to throw behind Taijuan Walker in his season debut on Sunday.

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