Phillies (-148) Favored in Series Opener Against Reds
The Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night.
It’s no surprise they’re favored and they’ll fit that role more often than not this season.
The over/under only sits at 8, but there’s a chance for this to be a decent game for scoring.
Reds starter Andrew Abbott and Phils starter Cristopher Sanchez combined to give up 32 home runs last season. Abbott had a 4.29 road ERA and gave up 20 more hits away from home compared to Great American Ball Park, which is known as a hitters’ park.
Abbott will be the third straight left-handed starter the Phillies face. Kyle Schwarber is the only left-handed batter to have multiple hits against lefties early in the season. Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos all had two each.
None of the Phillies have faced Abbott, so the best players to bet will be the guys who hit lefties best. A year ago, Castellanos had the most hits against lefties, followed by Bohm.
No Johan Rojas in tonight’s @Phillies lineup:
Schwarber DH
Turner 6
Harper 3
Realmuto 2
Bohm 5
Castellanos 9
Stott 4
Merrifield 7
Marsh 8Sánchez LHP
— Anthony SanFilippo (@AntSanPhilly) April 1, 2024
Castellanos is as frustrating of a player to bet on as he is to watch from at-bat to at-bat, but he had a hit in each of the three games against Atlanta. He is +475 at DraftKings and +560 at FanDuel to hit a home run. His total bases over/under at DK is 0.5 with the over at -165, while FD has him listed at +135 for two total bases.
Bohm had a pair of two-hit games against Atlanta and he’s also searching for his first home run. He is +550 (DK) and +600 (FD) to go yard and the over on his 1.5 total bases props sits at +120 (FD) and +135 (DK).
The Reds produced the best team OPS and third-best team batting average in Major League Baseball during the opening weekend of play.
Spencer Steer is probably the most dangerous hitter in the lineup for Monday’s game. He led the Reds in hits against lefties with 50 last season. Phenom shortstop Elly De La Cruz only hit .185 versus southpaws in his debut season.
Steer has the third-lowest odds to hit a home run at FD at +420, but as of publication, he was +650 at DK.
If you want to get crazy at Pennsylvania sportsbooks or New Jersey sportsbooks, a Bohm/Castellanos/Steer 2 total bases SGP pays out +991 on FD and +1000 on DK.