Let’s start this breakdown with something I like to call “Fun Fact Friday” –

  1. The Philadelphia Phillies are tied for the most wins in baseball and hold a 16.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins in the National League East.
  2. The Phillies have two seven-game winning streaks.
  3. The Marlins have one winning streak all season. That was from a three-game sweep of the equally-awful Colorado Rockies.
  4. Miami also has four wins since April 22nd. The Phillies have 12.

So then why in the hell are the Phillies only listed at -190 to win the three-game series in Miami this weekend?

I would respectfully take the sledgehammer out of your shed and use it to hammer the Phils’ series price at New Jersey sports betting apps and Sportsbook apps in PA.

Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler bookend the series on the mound for the Phillies.

Suarez allowed five earned runs in his last five starts. Trevor Rogers, who opposes Suarez on Friday, gave up eight earned runs in his last start against the Oakland Athletics.

We’re talking about pitchers in a completely different stratosphere right now!

Wheeler will face Braxton Garrett in his season debut for the Marlins on Sunday. Garrett is a solid pitcher, but he is also going up against the team with the fourth-most hits against left-handed pitching.

Those numbers are also relevant for the Friday night clash against Rogers, who has a 6.15 ERA.

Pitching has been a problem for the Marlins since the start of the season because basically every good pitcher they have started the year on the injured list. Garrett was one of them.

As for Saturday, Taijuan Walker just has to throw a serviceable five or six innings before the top bullpen arms take over.

Miami does not have a starter announced yet for Saturday, but that may not matter if the good version of Walker, which we saw on Sunday against San Francisco, limits the Miami offense.

Even if the Marlins steal Saturday’s game, it’s hard to imagine Sunday going the way of the Fish because of the singular winning streak this season and Wheeler’s recent dominance.

Wheeler is in Cy Young Award form at the moment. He allowed 11 hits and two earned runs over his last four starts. Miami would kill for one of those types of performances at the moment.

So yeah, it’s hard to see Miami winning one game in the series, let alone multiple contests, to cash in on the +165 series price, which is disrespectful to even see given how both teams have played so far in 2024.

Kinkead: it makes me wonder if there’s some recency bias at play.. the Phils won a four-game series in Miami last year and lost a three-game series, but in years past this Marlins team has been a bogeyman of sorts. not sure though, just spitballing..