The third favorite to win the National League Cy Young faces off against the current American League Cy Young favorite on Tuesday night. Ranger Suarez and Tarik Skubal face off in what should one of the lowest-scoring Phillies game of the season. We all know how good Suarez performed on the mound for the Phils so far in 2024. He’s 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA and he shouldn’t concede much against a woeful Detroit lineup. Skubal enters with an 8-3 record, a 2.50 ERA and 105 strikeouts. The Phils could be in for another night with a ton of strikeouts after Casey Mize fanned 10 batters for the Tigers last night:

It’s really no surprise that Tuesday’s game at Comerica Park has an over/under of 7.5 runs. Skubal’s only allowed four earned runs four times this season and three of those occurrences came on the road. He conceded two or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts in Detroit. Suarez gave up only 18 earned runs all season. He owns a 1.94 road ERA and pitched at least six full innings on 11 occasions. Get ready to see a lot of strikeouts and potentially the quickest Phillies game of the season. Detroit ranks 10th in team strikeouts, but strangely enough, it ranks in the bottom third in the majors in punchouts against left-handed pitching. But the Tigers have also had the third-fewest at-bats against southpaws. They have 138 Ks in 532 at-bats versus lefties, which is around a 25 percent strikeout rate.

The Phillies have the second-most strikeouts versus left-handed pitching in the second-most at-bats. Their strikeout rate against lefties is around 25 percent as well, so it evens out in the Tuesday matchup. Suarez reached the six-strikeout mark in 10 of his 15 starts. His over/under for strikeouts is 5.5 at NJ sports betting apps. Skubal, whose over/under is 6.5 strikeouts at PA sports betting apps, hit the seven-strikeout threshold on seven occasions in 2024. Skubal’s strikeout over is in play because of the 17 Ks the Phillies had on Monday, 10 of which were against a starter in Mize who isn’t known for his punchout power. The reality right now is that the bottom half of the Phillies lineup is more susceptible to strikeouts, and when you have free swingers at the top, especially Nick Castellanos, it could turn into a strikeout feast for opposing pitchers.

The other key factor to consider here is the lack of experience each lineup has against Suarez and Skubal. That should play to the advantage of both pitchers the first time through the order. I would look into the under on the first three innings or first five innings game totals with everything in play.

The wind is also projected to blow across from right to left, not straight out, and there’s the potential for bad weather in the forecast. Chalk this one up as an ugly night for the offense, and if Ranger outpitches Skubal, you could argue he should be the NL Cy Young favorite coming out of Tuesday.