The Stanley Cup Final is playing out exactly like the NBA Finals.

The better team, in this case the Florida Panthers, won the first three games. The Edmonton Oilers then took out all of their frustration in an 8-1 win at home in Game 4, similar to how the Dallas Mavericks stayed alive against the Boston Celtics.

So if you’re following along here, that means the Panthers should cruise in Tuesday’s Game 5 and hoist the Stanley Cup on home ice. They’re favored to do just that, sitting at -140 across the board at most sportsbooks.

It’s difficult to argue with that price because the Panthers overwhelmed the Oilers with their defensive pressure in the first three games. Connor McDavid did not score until Game 4 and Zach Hyman did not record a point until Saturday night.

Florida outscored Edmonton 7-1 on home ice in Games 1 and 2 and shut down the Oilers’ dominant power-play unit, which was a major factor in getting them to the Cup Final.

The Panthers moneyline, puck line, and the under hit in Games 1 and 2. Florida won its last four playoff games at home and they’re 8-3 straight up in the postseason inside Amerant Bank Arena. The under is 7-4 in those contests and it hit in the last four Panthers home games.

Translation: Florida’s defense has gotten much better as it advanced deeper into the postseason. It would not be a surprise if the Panthers replicate those recent home performances to win Game 5.

The big question then is who wins the Conn Smythe (MVP) Award. Sergei Bobrovsky and Aleksander Barkov are even at most books.

Bobrovsky’s case was hurt by a five-goal concession in Game 4 and being pulled for Anthony Stolarz in the second period. Barkov has four points (one goal, three assists) and has been vital in defending the McDavid line.

Evan Rodrigues, who leads the series with three goals, is +50000 to win the Conn Smythe. He probably needs multiple goals to at least be in contention for the award.

None of Florida’s top scorers through the first three rounds of the postseason (Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart) feel like good long shot looks for the Conn Smythe. They have two goals between them.

Even taking a flier on McDavid to win the Conn Smythe seems very risky right now because even if he rallies the Oilers to a Game 5 win he needs to win two more games against a defense he wasn’t able to solve until Game 4.

I would at least look into McDavid’s shots on goal prop. He leads the series with 17 attempts on target and should be more willing to shoot with his season on the line. The same goes for Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Leon Draisaitl.

For Florida, Vladimir Tarasenko is worth the bet at over 1.5 SOG. He leads the Panthers in SOGs. Verhaeghe and Tkachuk have 11 each. They are both worth consideration at over 2.5 SOG. Each player had five SOGs across Games 1 and 2 and hit their over once at home in the series. This might be your last opportunity to bet hockey on PA sports betting apps and NJ sports betting apps until next season begins.