Jalen Hurts has never thrown for more than 3,900 yards in a single NFL season.

So that takes him out of the conversation to lead the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, right?

Well, the sportsbooks at least believe that because Hurts is listed anywhere from +2500 to +2800 to lead the league in both categories.

It’s not that Hurts is a bad passer. In fact, he increased his passing yards and passing touchdown totals in each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the interceptions skyrocketed as well last season.

Statistically, Hurts is on an upward trajectory, and the expectations are that he at least gets close to 4,000 yards with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith once again at his disposal.


There are two X-factors that contribute to whether Hurts can actually reach the league-leading mark, which last season was Tua Tagovaolia’s 4,624 yards.

The first is the introduction of Saquon Barkley to the backfield.

Will Hurts still run the ball? Absolutely yes, but Saquon can at least take some pressure off Hurts in the ground game so that he can focus more on throwing the ball.

The other X-factor is what Kellen Moore can do for Hurts’ skill set in his first year as offensive coordinator.

Dak Prescott threw for 4,000 yards on two occasions inside Moore’s Dallas offense, including an eye-popping 4,902 yards in Moore’s first year, back in 2019.

That Cowboys team also had a 1,350-yard rusher in Ezekiel Elliott and three wide receivers over 800 yards in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Randall Cobb. Jason Witten even had more than 500 receiving yards.

In 2021, Prescott’s other 4,000-yard season under Moore, the Cowboys got 800+ yards out of Cooper and Dalton Schultz, a 1,000-yard campaign from CeeDee Lamb and more than 600 yards from Cedrick Wilson.

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I know it pains everyone, including myself, to even compare the Eagles to the Cowboys in any regard, but the best-case scenario for the Eagles offense in 2024 is exactly what the Cowboys produced in 2019 and 2021.

The Cowboys only went 8-8 with that offense in 2019 and lost in the wild-card round in 2021, but that has more to do with the Cowboys just being generally incompetent the second the playoffs come around.

Dallas Goedert is most likely the third pass-catcher to emerge behind Brown and Smith. Who the fourth guy in that rotation is right now is big mystery because Britain Covey is out here getting snaps as the No. 3 wide receiver.

The chances are, with Moore in charge of the offense, one of the wide outs we’re currently discrediting has a decent enough season to elevate Hurts’ passing-yard total, just like Wilson, Cobb, and Gallup.

The much more reasonable approach would be to bet the over on Hurts’ season passing yard prop (3,525.5) and passing touchdown prop (21.5).

You can separately bet Hurts to throw for 4,000 yards (+250 on FanDuel) and 4,500 yards (+1200, FD) instead of hammering the long shot league-leading props at PA sports betting apps.

The outlook is positive if you just look at it from an Eagles perspective, and if the best-case scenario emerges, Hurts could be alongside the likes of Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff atop the passing leaderboards in 2024.