There are very few sure things when betting on college football.

However, Penn State head coach James Franklin is one of them.

Franklin is known for beating all of the teams he’s supposed to beat and then falling flat against the sport’s elite programs.

The betting data surrounding Franklin supports that. He is 72-40-5 against the spread versus unranked teams. He is 22-25 ATS against ranked foes.

The unranked trend is in play on Saturday against West Virginia, a game where the spread dropped a few points over the last week. Of course, whenever a point spread in college sports drops multiple points people overreact and wonder why that number is what it is.


In this case, I think it’s people buying in on preseason hype around West Virginia.

The Mountaineers saved their head coach, Neal Brown, from being fired with a 9-4 season. They won four of their final five regular-season games and beat a Drake Maye-less North Carolina by 20 points in the bowl game.

It’s the classic case of preseason hype for a team that finished strong and has a veteran quarterback in place. Garrett Greene is a dual-threat QB who only threw four interceptions last season.

West Virginia can certainly contend in the Big 12, but had trouble putting up points on Penn State last season.

Penn State held West Virginia to seven first-half points and outgained the Mountaineers by 170 yards. In fact, Penn State moved the ball but just couldn’t convert on its opportunities in the first half. The Nittany Lions missed two field goals that would’ve given them a 13-point halftime lead.

PSU pulled away in the second half and Franklin allowed the backups to run down the field to cover the spread.

So, yes, while it is a new season and personnel has changed a bit on both sides, it’s hard to explain a 13-point difference in point spread from 2023 to 2024.

West Virginia would probably get a point or two on its side for playing at home, but moving to just an eight-point underdog against a College Football Playoff contender with an experienced quarterback doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

So you have that plus Franklin’s ATS record against unranked foes and that makes for the perfect formula to buy low on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions certainly will not be a single-digit favorite in many games this season, especially if they cover in Morgantown.

Apologies to Kinkead, but I think you have to lay the points with Penn State, especially if the number stays in the single digits. Keep in mind, you’ll find a lot of Week 1 NJ sportsbook promos and PA sportsbook promos, so you’ve got some wiggle room to push the spread to -6.5 or adjust the moneyline a bit if you like one of these teams outright.

Kinkead: I laid out my take in a Tuesday column: If West Virginia Beats Penn State, I Will Burn Every Couch in the Delaware Valley