Phillies Weekly Mailbag: Bullpen Potential, Playoff Bench Bats, and Ranger Suarez Concern
The Phillies are on their way to their first NL East title in 13 years. The vibes are high, the Braves are falling apart in front of our eyes, and this lineup is getting healthy again when it matters most.
I’m going to be doing these mailbags every Monday. This won’t be one of those hard-hitting question stories where your brain has to work overtime. I’m here to answer questions, discuss what’s hot, and spitball some thoughts with the team.
Going to be starting a Phillies Weekly Mailbag on @CrossingBroad tomorrow. I wanna answer your questions, react to some takes, and sort of just talk about what’s trending with the Phils.
Drop any questions/thoughts/takes in this tweet’s replies, and I’ll answer them!
— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) September 16, 2024
The “send questions” tweet will go out every Sunday, and you can drop your takes/questions in the replies. Let’s get into it:
“With the Dodgers losing Glasnow, who is the top team you don’t want to see in the playoffs?”
The Arizona Diamondbacks. That team still scares me to death. Their team ERA has gone up recently, and some arms are going down. But something about returning to Chase Field in October scares me to death. I don’t think the Padres are as good as everyone thinks. The Brewers are good, but their rotation isn’t all that. Dbacks is a pretty easy answer for me, and even if the Dodgers didn’t lose Glasnow, Arizona still might have been my answer.
“Are you concerned at all about Ranger in the playoffs? His second half has me concerned!”
I wouldn’t say I’m “concerned,” but I do think the Phillies have to be careful. You can’t run Ranger out there and force him twice through the order in October if he doesn’t have his stuff, and luckily, I trust Rob Thomson to make that decision.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more of a 2022 Ranger vibe in the coming weeks. I think they’ll experiment with him out of the bullpen in the playoffs if the need is there. They won’t be afraid to use him as the swiss army knife, especially with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez. He’ll start games, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a late-game inning from Ranger at some point.
“Who is the Phillies team MVP?”
Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has and always will be, the backbone of this offense. He raised his batting average by nearly 50 points this season. He’s hitting for more contact. He’s spraying it all over the field. He’s an immediate threat, breaking the all-time leadoff home run record for a season.
Other Close Options: Jeff Hoffman and Nick Castellanos – I still don’t think people understand how good and valuable Jeff Hoffman is. As far as Castellanos, he’s played every single game and has been incredible in the second half.
“I would love to hear your thoughts about the number two starter for the playoffs. I feel like Topper will go with Nola, but idk how you don’t set up Sanchez for two potential home starts. I believe Sanchez has the lowest era at home this season”
I wrote a story about this decision this morning: check that out here. It’s a tough call. Sanchez has been a dawg at home this year; you have to consider it.
“Do you think this offense can stay hot enough for 3 playoff series? We have not seen it happen in the last 3 years. And that concerns me far more than pitching.”
I do. If you have Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto leading the charge in your lineup, you’re going to be able to win every game. The playoffs are about getting hot at the right time. I’ve said it all year, and I’ll say it again…something about this year just feels different. I think they’re coming into October with a different mindset.
“How are the Phillies better equipped to avoid a repeat of being unceremoniously ousted after being heavily favored (NLCS)? Cause of death: poor managing of pitchers in crucial game, and swinging at absolute crap too often?”
The offense has to stay hot, that’s obvious. But my biggest reason why I think this year is different is due to the level of the bullpen. It’s night and day from the last two years.
Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, Jose Ruiz. That’s an unbelievable Top 6…better than any team in the NL, and maybe all of baseball. Rob Thomson’s made some great decisions over the last few years in October that failed due to poor execution, not bad decision making.
“Who do you think the Phillies match up with best in the playoffs? Where do you fall on the rust vs rest debate?”
Luckily for the Phillies, one of their best matchups in the NL is the Dodgers, a team they could very well see in the NLCS. The Dodgers pitching is still a bit of a disaster, and the Phillies have taken advantage of that this season. They hold the season series 5-1.
The rust vs. rest debate is interesting. I think it’s definitely weird that you get rewarded with catching a hot team, but that’s the sport. I don’t see this team being a group that will be worse because of more rest. If they’re the better team, they should win the series.
“What date do you think the Phillies will lose the division to the Mets or Braves? Thanks!”
Ratio. The pennant is ours. LOLMets.
“Dancing on my Own: Bring it back, yay or nay?”
I’m pro what the players want. Garrett Stubbs has already confirmed that the song as a whole probably won’t come back by itself. The team is working with some awesome local DJs to create a playoff mix for the clubhouse. Learn more about that here.
“I would love for you to dig into this lineup a little, the switches made based on the starting pitcher has worked at times, but has it actually hurt some of these struggling guys? Consistency is everything in baseball and you know with Topper that just might not happen.”
Splits are a big part of baseball. Weston Wilson has a 1.100 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He has earned playing time against the southpaws. The postseason roster will depend on what the opposing team’s pitching staff looks like. I think Marsh has been affected by it a bit, but it was hard to trot him out there in the middle of the season at the rate that he was striking out.
“Do you continue the lefty/righty lineup changes into the playoffs? Have Marsh/Stott/Rojas earned their spots or do you play the Wilson/Sosa (hopefully)/Stevenson games when we have to face a tough lefty in the NLDS?”
Building off of the question above, I think you have to. You don’t change something that’s worked. I’d assume Bryson Stott will be the one that will get more leniency compared to Marsh/Rojas. I want Bryson Stott out there every night, but if there’s a glaring need for a guy that can crush LHP, you have to do what you have to do to win baseball games. Once again…guys like Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens have earned a chance to get a big hit in October.
“What does 4-5-6 in the lineup look like in the playoffs, I believe it should be Casty-Bohm-JT”
Nick Castellanos has been fantastic in the 5-hole this year. He’s hitting .289 in that spot, compared to .178 in the 4-hole and .250 in the 6-hole. Bohm’s RISP abilities are the most valuable in the cleanup spot. If it was up to me:
- Schwarber
- Turner
- Harper
- Bohm
- Castellanos
- Realmuto
“I know we have the best record in baseball but should we be concerned how the entire lineup can go into a hitting slump at the same time? We’ll be facing the best pitchers in the game come October.”
I know it’s hard to not think about the negatives, but you have to trust the lineup. This team has been fantastic this year against playoff teams. You’re going to see some great pitchers. I trust these bats to get it done.