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Phillies a -142 Favorite to Complete Dodgers Sweep Behind Aaron Nola
By Joe Tansey
Published:
This week could not have gone better for the Philadelphia Phillies so far.
They’ve already clinched a series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers and can finish off the sweep behind Aaron Nola on Thursday night.
The Phils are only a -142 money line favorite behind Nola despite holding the edge in the pitching matchup against Landon Knack.
Knack has some solid numbers for the Dodgers, but he’s coming off the worst start of his season against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona hit three home runs off the right-handed pitcher, and that’s the good sign for the Phillies offense as they look to finish off the series strong.
The Phillies produced 14 runs in the first two games. They scored 10 in the opener and four on Wednesday night without Bryce Harper in the lineup.
Harper’s bruised hand will be monitored closely and there probably will not be any further update until closer to first pitch.
Even if Harper is in the lineup, he may not fare well against Knack, who has held left-handed hitters to a .182 batting average. Righties are only hitting .213 off him, but five of the seven home runs given up by Knack have come against right-handed bats.
Trea Turner is the Phillies’ hottest hitter at the moment with eight hits, three home runs, and 10 RBI in the last seven days.
Turner is the Phillies’ biggest home run threat when you match up Knack’s splits to the Phillies lineup. Alec Bohm would be up next.
The Dodgers lineup, although it hasn’t looked great in the series, is better equipped to deal with the opposing starting pitcher because of how often their batters have seen Nola.
Freddie Freeman has two home runs and a .239 average in 71 career at-bats against Nola. Kike Hernandez, Will Smith, and Miguel Vargas all have homers against Nola as well in their careers.
Nola has given up three homers in his last two starts, but he’s limited the damage in a majority of his appearances. He has a single outing with more than three earned runs allowed since May 14.
Lefties have done the most long ball damage against Nola, which makes it concerning with Shohei Ohtani and Freeman at the top of the Dodgers order.
However, the Dodgers lineup is still weaker than it would be at full strength and that could help Nola manage through the game. He’s gone into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts, which is why his outs prop is perfectly placed at over/under 18.5.
It is worth noting, though, that four of the last five starters to face the Dodgers went five innings or fewer, and with the outs prop at 18.5, it might be worth exploring the under if you’re looking at this game with NJ sports betting apps or PA sports betting apps.
As for the game itself, the Phillies are 12-5 at home since June 1st and have held opponents to three or fewer runs on 12 occasions during that stretch.
The under may not be the popular play because of the hitting conditions inside The Bank, but the Phillies’ pitchers have been good enough to keep even a team like the Dodgers at bay.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.