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Bet the MLB All-Star Game at Your Own Risk
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Major League Baseball All-Star Game is a great showcase of the league’s top superstars.
It’s also a horrible event to bet on.
The exhibition is full of pitchers who throw their best stuff for one inning.
Paul Skenes isn’t going to out to the mound to finesse his way through the first inning. He’s going to deliver all sorts of power and velocity to the hitters he faces in the bottom of the opening frame.
The same goes for American League starter Corbin Burnes, who will try to blow a few pitches past Ketel Marte, Shohei Ohtani, and Trea Turner.
Rinse, lather, repeat for the next three-to-four pitchers who come into the game for both leagues. None of the pitchers who throw in the ASG want to be embarrassed. Neither do the hitters, obviously, but their approach is thrown off when a pitcher gives maximum effort for nine to 12 pitches.
That’s why the over/under for Tuesday’s game inside Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas is set at 7.
The last four ASGs had seven or fewer runs, and if you go back to 2010, nine of the 13 ASGs had seven or fewer runs.
A year ago, only two runs were scored in the first five innings. Colorado catcher Elias Diaz won the Most Valuable Player with a two-run home run in the top of the eighth. No one in their right mind would have pegged Diaz as an MVP winner before the game started.
For what it’s worth, the ASG MVPs in recent years have been notable names. Giancarlo Stanton and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won in 2021 and 2022. Both Stanton and Guerrero homered on their way to winning their MVPs.
So the formula seems pretty simple based on the last three years: Just bet on a guy to win MVP who you think will hit a homer.
Seems easy, right?
Well, in that case, we’d all be millionaires and I wouldn’t be here typing about how to have a cautious approach with the MLB ASG.
Aaron Judge is the favorite to win MVP, and well yeah that makes sense because he’s hit the most homers of anyone in baseball.
Judge is +800 to win MVP. I’d look into Yordan Alvarez or Vladdy as players from the AL lineup who will have multiple at-bats early in the game who can go yard off anyone.
We all know Bryce Harper is the ultimate showman, so he can’t be counted out to win MVP at +1100. Harper is also +550 to hit a home run in the game.
All of the props seem fun, and there are PA sportsbook promos for the ASG, but you’re playing with chance ala NJ online casinos.
Each pitcher on the AL and NL roster has a strikeout prop attached to them, but it’s quite literally all situational after Skenes and Burnes leave the mound.
In 2023, the National League used nine pitchers for nine innings, but the AL used 11 hurlers and none of the final five relievers entered into the game pitched a full frame.
We don’t have a clue about how Torey Luvullo and Bruce Bochy will manage their staffs throughout the game either. Bochy’s been an ASG manager four previous times, but the last occurrence was in 2015, when Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke started. There’s an obscure trivia answer for you.
Anyway, bet the MLB ASG at your own peril. Don’t go overboard. Maybe make a few picks for funsies, but definitely don’t claim you knew what you were doing if you win because this event, more than any in the calendar, is a complete and total crapshoot to predict.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.