Phillies

Can Aaron Nola Join the Phillies’ Run and Topple Marlins?

By Chris Wright

Published: May 4th, 2026 · 2:53 PM EDT

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We know, OK? The Phillies are winning, but they aren’t beating world-beaters.

Bygones.

They bounced back from Saturday’s loss at Miami and hammered the Marlins on Sunday. They’re now 5-1 under interim Don Mattingly and could win their second consecutive series tonight.

Say what you want about the recent opposition — we know, the Giants and Marlins are both under .500 — but 2026 postseason obits were written just a week ago.

Now? Mattingly’s best players are starting to play like it with a bit more regularity. The Phillies are 6-4 over their past 10 games — matching their best stretch of the season.

Can they keep it going tonight against the overachieving Marlins? To do so, Aaron Nola (1-3, 6.03 ERA) will have to pitch a lot better than he has thus far in 2026 — against a team that has historically had his number. Nola is just 5-12 lifetime vs. the Marlins, though his 3.72 ERA across those 25 starts is a serviceable 3.72. He hasn’t won a game since April 3 — and that’s the only time the Phillies have won in his 6 starts.

Nola will go against Marlins righty Janson Junk (2-2, 3.00), who was just OK in his only career start vs. the Phillies last season.

Let’s dive in and find the best bets as the Phils and Marlins complete their 4-game set in Miami tonight.

Phillies vs Marlins Odds

The graphic above displays the best available odds, which are subject to change

Phillies vs Marlins Betting Picks & Prediction

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-110 at Bet365)

Let’s talk value. Betting the moneyline for either team is risky, so we are logically locking in the Over 8.5 Runs (-110 at Bet365).

Why the over? Because neither pitching staff is putting on a defensive clinic. We’ve outlined Nola’s struggles, in general and specifically vs. the Marlins. Meanwhile, the Marlins are surprisingly competent at loanDepot park, manufacturing 4.53 runs per game at home.

Miami has hit the over in 60.00% of their past 10 games.

These teams cleared 8.5 runs twice in the first three games, including the Phillies’ 7-2 win Sunday.

Take the Over 8.5, and pair it with the Phillies -1.5 runline (+146 at FanDuel). Philadelphia showed it can shift the momentum, string together hits, and exploit Miami’s bullpen. Expect another multi-run victory to cash both tickets as the Phillies win their second consecutive series.

Phillies Player Props & Predictions

Kyle Schwarber – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116) at Caesars

We correctly called another Schwarbomb in Game 1 of this series. That’s the third time this season we’ve nailed Schwarber’s home run prop. As much fun as that is, it’s financially irresponsible to keep going to that well too often. As we know, the man does swing and miss.

So we’ll dial it down a notch. Schwarber is the living embodiment of the “three true outcomes” baseball philosophy. For this matchup, we are banking on his .553 slugging to carry the day. Given Miami’s unimpressive pitching staff, Schwarber likely only needs one solid contact swing to cash this ticket. It’s a high-variance lifestyle, but we’re here for the ride.

Aaron Nola – Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+115) at BetMGM

It’s a good thing Schwarber has been a reliable allowance, because we’ve missed twice on Nola strikeout props.

Tonight’s the night. There’s being due, and then there’s escaping whatever funk he’s been in this season.

But despite giving up runs like free samples at a Wawa checkout counter, Nola continues to miss bats. Through 31.1 innings pitched, Nola has recorded 35 strikeouts, calculating to 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings. The problem? He’s only seen the 6th inning twice this season, and for this prop to cash, he’ll likely need to get there tonight.

He might surrender a few extra-base hits, but as long as he continues striking out roughly one batter per inning before getting chased from the mound, this prop offers highly logical value.

Trea Turner – Over 0.5 Runs (+102) at DraftKings

If the Phillies are going to cover the runline and help push this game over the total, they need their table-setters to execute. Trea Turner is critical to generating early offense before the heavy hitters step into the box. Turner has scored at least 1 run in 5 of his past 8 games. Since we are already banking on a high-scoring affair with a vulnerable Miami pitching staff, expecting Turner to get on base, score, or drive in a run is just common sense. He has the speed to turn a routine grounder into an infield single or beat out a double play, making this a highly correlated, reliable play with a DraftKings promo code alongside our game total projection.

Did You Know? Schwarber Edition …

Kyle Schwarber is on pace to hit 52 home runs and collect 129 hits this season. If that holds, Schwarber would break Mark McGwire’s record for fewest hits in a 50+ HR season. Schwarber already is tied for 2nd on the all-time list.

Season	Player	Team	HR	H	HR PCT.
2026 PACE	Kyle Schwarber	Phillies	52	129	40.3
1996	Mark McGwire	Athletics	52	132	39.4
2025	Kyle Schwarber	Phillies	56	145	38.6
1999	Mark McGwire	Cardinals	65	145	44.8
2002	Jim Thome	Indians	52	146	35.6
2025	Cal Raleigh	Mariners	60	147	40.8
2010	Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	54	148	36.5
1997	Mark McGwire	A’s/Cardinals	58	148	39.1
1998	Mark McGwire	Cardinals	70	152	46.1
2017	Aaron Judge	Yankees	52	154	33.8
2005	Andruw Jones	Braves	51	154	33.1
2019	Pete Alonso	Mets	53	155	34.2
2001	Barry Bonds	Giants	73	156	46.8
1998	Greg Vaughn	Padres	50	156	32.1
1990	Cecil Fielder	Tigers	51	159	32.1
1961	Roger Maris	Yankees	61	159	38.4