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Hot New Prop Bet: Ben Simmons Made Three-Pointers
By Kyle Scott
Published:
Markets moved when Ben Simmons splashed down a three-pointer in the Sixers’ first home preseason game.
The next day, PointsBet reached out to us and said that Simmons’ lone preseason long-range shot compelled such an influx of bets that the Australian-originated Sportsbook had to move their Simmons MVP odds from +10000 to +8000 as he quickly became their biggest MVP liability.
Now, PointsBet, along with DraftKings Sportsbook and FOX Bet are offering odds on Simmons’ three-point production.
DraftKings
Under a section called “Simmons Specials,” DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the following in New Jersey and Indiana:
Total attempted Simmons three-pointers: 66.5
Total made Simmons three-pointers: 16.5
The under in both cases is the heavy favorite– being offered at -225 on the attempt and -200 on made. The over is +160 and +148, respectively, implying Simmons has roughly 38% chance of shooting and 40% chance of making the proposed number of threes.
FOX Bet
FOX Bet, which is offering the Sixers at even odds on a max $25 bet tonight, also has the following action on Ben Simmons three-pointers for tonight only:
Simmons to attempt at least one three-pointer: +200
Simmons to make at least one three-pointer: +600
They are boosted from +100 and +450, respectively.
Will Ben Actually Shoot Threes?
I asked Kevin about this. He’s a resident sour puss and also super pragmatic and the best guy on the Sixers beat. His thoughts:
“If Ben Simmons didn’t shoot three pointers in the preseason, why would anybody think that changes during the regular season? He had ample opportunities to fire away, but made his only three in the exhibition with Guangzhou after teammates basically goaded him to do it, egging on the crowd and trying to force the situation.
If anything, I’d expect Ben’s free throw percentage to increase, but I don’t know if that translates to shooting threes. Brett Brown says he’s not going to stuff Simmons in the dunker’s spot this year, but will give him opportunities to play from the corner where he will inevitably receive kick out passes and have a chance to shoot from distance.
I personally don’t see it happening, but the good thing is that Ben’s attitude has seemed to shift on this topic, and he admitted last week in a scrum that the shot is a weakness in his game. As he continues to mature and improve from the foul line, perhaps we see him start to take more three pointers once we hit December and January. I just don’t see it happening early.”
But if it does…
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) October 23, 2019
Kyle Scott is the founder and editor of CrossingBroad.com. He has written for CBS Philly and Philly Voice, and been a panelist or contributor on NBC Sports Philly, FOX 29 and SNY TV, as well as a recurring guest on 97.5 The Fanatic, 94 WIP, 106.7 The Fan and other stations. He has more than 10 years experience running digital media properties and in online advertising and marketing.