What a rollercoaster of a game that was last night, huh?

When Bryce Harper’s three-run homer in the second flew over the batter’s eye out in center field, the Phillies had a 90.6% win probability, according to ESPN. If you were one of the brave souls who grabbed the Phils at +170 to +175 at PA online sportsbooks, you had to be feeling STRONG. Of course, by the time Hector Neris surrendered a three-run homer to Matt Beaty in the ninth, the odds had completely flipped, with the Dodgers holding a 94% win probability.

Both bettors and the Phillies appeared headed for a brutal loss, though if you simply took the Phillies with PointsBet, you would’ve won your bet early on thanks to their early 3+ run lead promotion.

How? Glad you asked.

https://twitter.com/CrossingBroad/status/1151317499901816833


The more you know. Of course, you can prevent taking a beating on future bullpen meltdowns by signing up for PointsBet right here.

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Those of you in Pennsylvania, find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.

Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

Of course, things worked out for the Phils anyway because Andrew Knapp and Scott Kingery both reached base, clearing the way for Bryce Harper to deliver his first walk-off hit in a Phillies uniform. Let’s play it again and revel in its majestic beauty:

https://twitter.com/nickpiccone/status/1151324190039007232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1151324190039007232&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.crossingbroad.com%2F2019%2F07%2Fhere-are-the-tv-and-radio-calls-of-bryce-harpers-walk-off-hit.html

At +175 odds last night, the Phillies had not been that big of a home underdog in the Gabe Kapler era. Didn’t matter.

Now, they’ll try to sustain the momentum when Nick Pivetta takes the ball against Kenta Maeda tonight. If the Phillies are going to do it against baseball’s top team, they will need to find a way to keep a Dodgers lineup in check that has produced 24 runs and has swatted nine homers in two games. Can they? Let’s get into it.

Phillies-Dodgers Odds

Here are the Phillies-Dodgers odds for tonight’s game. Odds listed are as of 10 a.m. Wednesday morning.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-114) +140 O 10 (-103)
Dodgers -1.5 (-103) -159 U 10 (-114)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-114) +140 O 10.5 (-108)
Dodgers -1.5 (-103) -159 U 10.5 (-108)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-125) +130 O 10.5 (-110)
Dodgers -1.5 (+105) -150 U 10.5 (-110)

Want to grab the Dodgers? Get them at PointsBet where they are currently only -150 on the moneyline. If you like the Phillies, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also get the same price on a Dodgers moneyline bet at both of those books.

Phillies-Dodgers Pitching Matchup

Pivetta (4-4, 5.81 ERA) comes into this game off of a five inning effort against the Nationals last Friday night in which he allowed three earned runs on six hits. While he got off to a shaky start in that one, he rebounded to give the Phillies a functional start. Pivetta has big strikeout stuff, but he’s only fanned 11 batters over his last 21.1 IP. In his only start against the Dodgers this season, Pivetta turned in one of the finest performances of his career. He pitched six shutout innings, allowing only three hits while striking out nine.

On the other side, Maeda (7-6, 3.82 ERA) is coming off a loss to Boston in which he gave up three earned runs in 5.2 IP. He was hurt by a pair of long balls in an 8-1 loss. In two starts this month, Maeda has a 4.05 ERA but has surrendered four homers in just over 13 innings pitched.

What’s most interesting, though, are his awful road splits. Maeda has been outstanding at home (2.26 ERA, .165 OPP BA, .532 OPS), but has struggled on the road (5.44 ERA, .241 OPP BA, .774 OPS).

Of note, Harper and Rhys Hoskins are a combined 1 for 11 in their careers against Maeda.

The Phillies are 6-6 (-$182) in Pivetta’s starts this season, while the Dodgers are 9-9 (-$384) in Maeda’s starts.

Phillies-Dodgers Betting Trends

The Dodgers, despite having the superior club in recent seasons, are only 7-8 overall at Citizens Bank Park dating back to 2015.

The Phillies are 29-20 at home this season ($52), while the Dodgers are 26-22 (-$428) on the road. As good as Los Angeles is, they haven’t been a profitable play away from Dodgers stadium.

The Phillies won at Citizens Bank Park as an underdog for the first time this season last night. They are now 1-3 as a home dog. In general, they have struggled as an underdog, going 11-22 (-$731). The Phillies are also only 5-11 when a moneyline underdog of +135 or more. When a moneyline underdog between +130 and +145, the Phillies are 3-5 (-$87).

Overall, the Phillies continue to be one of the least profitable underdog bets in all of baseball this season.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable as a favorite at 59-30 (+$532). More specifically, however, they are 22-18 (-$323) as a road favorite this season. In terms of this specific line, LA is 8-6 when favored between -150 and -160 (-$85). When we widen that range from -140 to -170, the record moves to 14-9 (-$20). They’re 5-4 (-$83) on the road when favored in that same range.

Interestingly, despite the Dodgers’ significant pop from the left side, they are only 15-15 on the road in games started by a right-handed pitcher this season, which is pretty bizarre considering their 27-6 record at home against RHP.

Phillies-Dodgers Prediction

Do I trust the Phillies to back up their thrilling comeback win with another solid performance tonight? Consistency hasn’t exactly been their calling card this season, so I have reservations – particularly against an LA lineup that has banged nine homers over the past two nights. Still, Maeda himself has struggled keeping the ball in the yard lately and isn’t nearly the same pitcher away from Dodgers Stadium. As good as LA is, they have been rather ordinary on the road, too. I’ll take the insurance of the run line this time around. Give me the Phillies +1.5 runs at -144.