Oregon-Auburn Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

oregon auburn betting preview

We have arrived at our destination. College football. Full slate. Let’s go. Our Oregon-Auburn betting preview.

There are plenty of intriguing matchups across the country on the Week 1 schedule, but only one game features two Top 25 teams squaring off. That game is pits No. 11 Oregon against No. 16 Auburn at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in the long-awaited (exaggeration for effect) 2010 National Championship Game rematch.

Unsurprisingly, this game will be nationally broadcast and figures to be draw a substantial amount of action across both the PA online sports betting and NJ online sports betting landscapes. Let’s run down everything you need to know before locking in your picks for this one.

How to Bet on Oregon-Auburn

Pennsylvania

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New Jersey

Our top picks include:

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William Hill NJ recently rolled out its new online sports betting platform. They are offering a free $50 when you place a $50 bet .

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering up to $200 first bet match .

How to Watch Oregon-Auburn

The College GameDay crew will be doing their thing live from Jerry World on Saturday morning. Here’s the watch info:

  • Date: Saturday, August 31
  • Time: 7:30 p.m.
  • Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
  • Network: ABC

Oregon-Auburn Odds

Here are the current Oregon-Auburn odds at the top online sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Oregon     +3.5 (-110)  +140   O 55.5 (-110)
Auburn     -3.5  (-110)  -165   U 55.5 (-110)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Oregon     +4 (-110)  +160   O 55.5 (-110)
Auburn     -4 (-110)  -195   U 55.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Oregon     +4 (-110)   +155   O 55.5 (-110)
Auburn     -4 (-110)  -195   U 55.5 (-110)

PointsBet

    Spread     Money        Total 
Oregon     +3.5 (-110)  +140   O 55.5 (-110)
Auburn     -3.5  (-110)  -165   U 55.5 (-110)

Win Probability

ESPN’s FPI index gives Auburn a 53.4% win probability. The implied win probability at most legal sportsbooks, as of writing this between 62 percent and 66 percent, so if you’re looking for moneyline value compared to FPI win probability, it’s decidedly on the Ducks.

Why?

Depending on the sportsbook, Oregon has an implied win probability of somewhere between 34 and 38 percent, which is a quite a bit lower than their ESPN probability of 46.6%.

Oregon-Auburn Betting Preview

You’re going to hear a ton about youth versus experience in this game. For Oregon, Heisman hopeful Justin Herbert is back for his senior season after passing up a shot at what would have been a sure-fire first round selection in the 2019 NFL Draft. On the opposite sideline it will be true freshman Bo Nix leading the huddle for Auburn. Nix will become the SEC’s first true freshman quarterback to start an opener since the 2004 season.

Let’s first start with Oregon. Herbert’s return positions the Ducks for a run at a PAC-12 title, and if all breaks right, a possible shot at a College Football Playoff spot.

He will operate behind what is arguably one of the country’s top offensive lines and has plenty of weapons, including Penn State graduate transfer Juwan Johnson along with highly-touted true freshman Mycah Pittman. The hype is real in Eugene this season, but the Ducks will be up against arguably their toughest test of the season in the opener.

Meanwhile, Auburn fields what is expected to be one the nation’s elite defenses and they will have to lead the way not only in the opener but throughout the season as the Tigers attempt to navigate the rigors of a brutal SEC schedule.

Oregon’s offensive line better meet the hype early as it will have its hands full with a dominant defensive line led by Nick Coe, Marlon Davidson, and Derrick Brown. Those three accounted for 14 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss a season ago. Oh, and Auburn brings back an experienced secondary with four starters returning from a season ago.

But the story in this one for Auburn will be how Nix handles the pressure of the national stage in primetime. Offense usually grabs the headlines with the Ducks, but a vastly improved defense was a big reason they won nine games a season ago. They return several linemen and members of the secondary, posing a formidable challenge for Auburn’s offense. Don’t be surprised if they rely heavily upon playmaking running back Jatarvious Whitlow in this one as Nix gets acclimated.

Betting Trends

Why Backing Auburn is a Good Bet

Auburn typically gets off to a fast start. The Tigers have won 11 of their last 13 season-openers, including a 21-16 win over eventual PAC-12 Champion Washington as a short favorite last season.

Auburn is also 5-1 ATS since the start of the 2016 season when favored between three and six points and 6-2 ATS when favored by six points or less.

It’s early in the season and with so many unknown variables at play, I like to step back and look at trends at the conference level to gain some historical understanding how teams tend to play one another. In this case, the trends strongly support Auburn. Consider that in their last five meetings, SEC teams are a perfect 5-0 against PAC-12 squads when favored by six points or less. They are a perfect 4-0 when favored by four points or less.

Again, it’s early in the season, so how do SEC teams play as a short favorite in the opening weeks? Well, they are a perfect 5-0 when playing as a three to four-point favorite in August games and they are 26-17-2 ATS as a favorite of any number in August and September.

SEC teams are 20-11 ATS in non-conference games in August and September when favored between 3-6 points, while PAC-12 teams are 5-14 ATS in neutral site games as an underdog since the start of the 2015 season.

Also be aware that despite Oregon taking a step forward with a nine-win season ago, the Ducks were only 5-8 ATS in 2018. Meanwhile, Mario Cristobal teams haven’t been particularly good as an underdog, and they haven’t been good when an underdog of 3-6 points, going only 3-9 ATS in that spot.

Consider, too, that Oregon has been an absolutely miserable play as an underdog since the start of the 2016 season with a 4-10-1 ATS record. Moreover, they are 2-9-1 ATS when an underdog of three or more points.

Yikes.

Why Backing Oregon is a Good Bet

Well, they certainly should have the edge at quarterback. Short spread, neutral site game (though it will feature a pro-Auburn crowd), and the better quarterback presents a favorable contextual backdrop for the Ducks.

Gus Malzahn doesn’t have a great track record as Auburn’s head coach when favored in non-conference games. His teams are only 11-15 ATS, but they are 3-1 ATS when favored by less than six points.

Other than that, I have to be honest, there’s not much out there in terms of trend data that supports a play on Oregon in this spot.

A Slight Lean on the Under

I’ll say this. I know there’s lots of hype around Oregon’s offense, but this Auburn defense is deep at every level, and I suspect it will present problems for Herbert. Meanwhile, as good as Nix may eventually be, it’s hard to imagine Malzahn will be overly aggressive in this game. This one should shape up as a nice under play.

Betting Splits

DraftKings has provided us with betting splits on Oregon-Auburn. Data is from Thursday afternoon:

oregon auburn betting splits

Oregon-Auburn Prediction

There’s not much guesswork left here. Even with the inexperience at quarterback, I’ll rely on Auburn because of its superior defense and lean on the overwhelming historical trends that back SEC teams in this spot.

Prediction: Auburn 26, Oregon 20

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