Here’s your SugarHouse Sportsbook betting update for Tuesday, August 6th..
The Phillies will try to reach seven games over .500 for the seventh time since June 19 when they take on the Diamondbacks tonight. Amazingly, they’re 0-6 in such games during that span. Jake Arrieta, who enters with a 3.20 ERA since the All-Star Break, opposes starter Mike Leake (9-8, 4.27 ERA), who’s making his first start with the Diamondbacks.
Those of you in Pennsylvania that are only seeing green as we head into the dog days of August will be relieved to know that Eagles football returns in just two more days when the Birds host the the Titans on Thursday night at The Linc. Indeed, preseason football is not typically received as the most palatable betting option, but:
- It is football.
- You can bet on it with SugarHouse Sportsbook.
So there’s that, which is nice.
SugarHouse is also running a $500k NFL Pick ‘Em which you can enter by September 8.
Starters: Jake Arrieta (PHI) vs. Mike Leake (ARI)
Money Line: PHI (+128) | ARI (-143)
Total Runs: 9.5 – Over (-109) | Under (-107)
Trends to Know
West Coast Struggles
The Phillies performance against the NL West this season is what I would term as, uh, not great. They are a brutal 12-33 (-$1,751) since the start of the 2017 season against such teams and no team in baseball has been less profitable against NL West opponents during that span. They’re also only 8-20 (-$1,062) against them under Gabe Kapler.
Note that the Phillies are currently a +128 underdog. If you believe in trends, that underdog status matters. The Phillies are only 9-30 (-$1,667) since 2017 against NL West opponents as a road underdog. They have, however, been fairly successful at Chase Field in recent years, going 7-7 (+$344) dating back to the 2015 season.
I found this hard to believe, but they’ve been an underdog in all 14 games, which explains why they’ve been so profitable despite a .500 record.
Jake Arrieta Trends
Arrieta hasn’t gone deep into games since the All-Star break, but he’s been pretty effective in the innings he’s given the Phillies. In four second half starts, Arrieta has a 3.20 ERA, while holding opponents to a .675 OPS.
The Phillies have been a solid 13-9 (+163) in Arrieta’s starts, 6-5 (+59) when he starts on the road, and 3-4 ($68) when he starts as a road underdog (-$68).
The Phillies are only 13-20 (-$386) as a road underdog, but have won three of their last four in that role. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have been a bad bet as a home favorite. They’re only 13-17 (-$762), making them the third-least profitable home favorite in baseball.
Spread: TEN: +3.5 (-110) | PHI: –3.5 (-110)
Money Line: TEN (+155) | PHI (-190)
Total Points: 37 – Over (+100) | Under (-122)
Trends to Know
The line in this one is holding steady at SugarHouse Sportsbook PA with the Eagles as a 3.5-point favorite, but the moneyline has jumped all the way up to -190, so a bet on the Eagles to win outright is a bit more expensive this afternoon.
Let’s be honest, this is preseason football we’re talking about. Doug Pederson told reporters on Tuesday morning that a decision hasn’t been made about the playing status of several key starters, including quarterback Carson Wentz or left tackle Jason Peters. There are so many unknown variables in these games, which makes it hard to provide any type of meaningful analysis. Still, there are some Eagles-related preseason trends that jump out, so if you’re looking to bet on this game, then consider the following information:
The Eagles are 19-11 ATS at home in preseason games since the 2005 season.
More recently, the Eagles are 5-1 ATS under Doug Peterson in the preseason at Lincoln Financial Field.
They are 14-6 ATS when favored between three and four points since 2005, making them the NFL’s most profitable team in that spread range during that span.
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