The Eagles kickoff a season of great expectations on Sunday afternoon against the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. Prior to the game, burgers will be grilled, beers (and White Claws) will be drank, and, for the first time ever, legal bets at PA online sportsbooks will be placed. Let’s get it in our Eagles-Redskins betting preview.
In fact, if you’re going to the game, you can make both pregame and in-game live wagers right from the comfort of your seat at The Linc as the action unfolds right in front of you.
That’s a beautiful thing.
With Carson Wentz now fully healthy, most fans and experts alike expect big things from the Eagles this season. They, along with oddsmakers, also expect big things from the Eagles this Sunday against the Redskins as they are the heaviest favorite on the board this week.
Can they start the season with a win and cover? I’ll tackle that question and take a look at the best sportsbook promotions, betting odds, and game trends.
Let’s get into it.
How to Bet on Eagles-Redskins
With football season back in full swing, legal online sportsbooks are offering tons of generous sign-up bonuses and lucrative promotions. Here are some of the best deals out there this week.
We recommend the newly launched FOX Bet. The app is fun, with a level of engagement we haven’t seen from other sportsbooks. New users can get a $20 free bet and a $100 deposit match when they sign up right here.
Here are some our top picks available in the Garden State:
How to Watch Redskins-Eagles
- Date: Sunday, September 8
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- Network: FOX
- Announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver
Here are the current Redskins-Eagles betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:
|Redskins||+10 (-110)||+380||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-10 (-110)||-500||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Redskins||+10 (-110)||+350||O 45 (-110)|
|Eagles||-10 (-110)||-430||U 45 (-110)|
|Redskins||+10 (-105)||+350||O 45 (-105)|
|Eagles||-10 (-105)||-470||U 45 (-115)|
Here is a look at the sportsbook moneyline probability in relation to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projections.
FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection has the Eagles as an 8.5-point favorite and gives them a 77% chance of winning the game. By this measure, with the Eagles currently a heavy 10-point favorite at most sportsbooks, there is some value on a Washington moneyline bet, though I don’t recommend this.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -430 moneyline odds at FanDuel, the current cheapest moneyline price at the legal PA and NJ sportsbooks, is 81.1%. In relation to the ELO projection of 77%, the Eagles are more expensive on the moneyline than they should be.
On the other hand, the implied probability of Washington at +350 moneyline odds is 22.2%, which is almost right in line with the ELO probability.
Even though a bet on the Redskins outright isn’t recommended, it’s clear the Eagles are being juiced up because local sprotsbooks take so much action on the home team. This extends to the spread, too, which… let’s get into it.
Fascinating storylines are aplenty in this one. Carson Wentz begins his revenge tour on Sunday afternoon as he looks to silence his doubters and recapture the magic of his first 13 games back in 2017 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Like this kind of magic:
— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) September 10, 2017
Speaking of revenge, Redskins quarterback Case Keenum would like some after a nightmarish performance with the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game game back in January 2018.
You probably recall that game, yes?
Revenge aside, Washington head coach Jay Gruden is looking to end a four-game losing streak to the Eagles in which his team has experienced four double-digit losses by an average of more than 15 points per game. With the spread currently set at 10, conventional wisdom suggests there’s a pretty good chance that streak could run to five games.
Frankly, the matchups, both head-to-head and narrative-based, appear daunting for Washington:
Head-to-head: Ereck Flowers vs. Fletcher Cox and 100-year-old Donald Penn vs. Derek Barnett
Narrative-based: Carson Wentz vs. Case Keenum
Bonus narrative-based: DeSean Jackson vs. his former team
As for that last one, if Jackson’s recent history against his former teams holds up, the Eagles should be in pretty good shape. You may recall his performance against the Eagles last season, which mirrored many of his other performances against his once former team:
Desean Jackson!! Maybe the Bucs are for real!? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/r6H4sXv5I5
— Abdul Memon (@abdulamemon) September 16, 2018
More of that, please.
Why Backing the Redskins is a Good Bet
Beware of the big number
Dating back to the 1993 season, the biggest Week 1 point spread favorite is 12-23 against the spread (ATS for short). At -10, the Eagles are currently the biggest favorite on the board. These Week 1 red flags, however, aren’t limited to just the biggest favorite.
Dating back to the 2003 season, favorites of a touchdown or more have struggled. Check this out:
7 or more points: 18-27 ATS
7.5 or more points: 10-23 ATS
9 or more points: 6-19 ATS
Meanwhile, favorites between exactly 8-10 points are 4-15 ATS. Brutal.
Still, if you’re an Eagles fan just hoping for a win, there’s good news. Favorites of nine or more points are 19-6 outright.
Big NFC East favorites struggle at home
All NFC East home favorites are 53-69-3 ATS in division games since the 2005 season, and the bigger the spread, the worse they fare.
Since ’05, NFC East teams favored at home in division contests by eight or more points are 6-12 ATS, but the last eight times an NFC East team was favored by nine or more at home, they’ve failed to cover (0-8 ATS). Since the 2007 season, such teams are 1-10-1 ATS.
Gruden’s Washington teams are 5-1 ATS when a road dog of eight or more points, while Case Keenum is 3-1 ATS when the spread reaches that number. Keenum is also 9-4-1 ATS as a road dog of any spread.
Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet
They are better
The Eagles have the better coach, the better quarterback, the better offense, and the better defense. They’re also at home and should be supremely motivated to start fast with Wentz back.
After struggling for years with Washington, the Eagles have won four straight meetings between these two teams by double digit margins (15.5 points per game).
Doug Pederson’s Eagles are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 games.
A small, but encouraging sample
Pederson’s Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home when favored by seven or more points and are 2-1 ATS when favored by nine or more points.
A Lean on the Under
Nobody wants to bet the under. Total snooze, I know, but it has hit in all three of the Eagles’ Week 1 games under Pederson. Moreover, the under is 18-8 at The Linc since Pederson took over and 13-5 when the total is 46 or less.
Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of 8:30 a.m. Friday morning:
Prediction: Here’s what I’m not doing on Sunday: Betting on the Redskins. I can’t do it. I’m not backing Case Keenum on the road, particularly playing behind an offensive line should thoroughly get manhandled by the Eagles’ defensive front.
Still, big Week 1 spreads are historically a huge problem, as are big NFC East home favorites in division games. Those trends are enough to keep me off of this game. Still, if I had to get involved, I’d reluctantly take Washington +10 and the under.
Eagles 26, Redskins 18