Eagles vs. Redskins Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

eagles redskins betting preview
PHOTO CREDIT: ERIC HARTLINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

The Eagles kickoff a season of great expectations on Sunday afternoon against the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. Prior to the game, burgers will be grilled, beers (and White Claws) will be drank, and, for the first time ever, legal bets at PA online sportsbooks will be placed. Let’s get it in our Eagles-Redskins betting preview.

In fact, if you’re going to the game, you can make both pregame and in-game live wagers right from the comfort of your seat at The Linc as the action unfolds right in front of you.

That’s a beautiful thing.

With Carson Wentz now fully healthy, most fans and experts alike expect big things from the Eagles this season. They, along with oddsmakers, also expect big things from the Eagles this Sunday against the Redskins as they are the heaviest favorite on the board this week.

Can they start the season with a win and cover? I’ll tackle that question and take a look at the best sportsbook promotions, betting odds, and game trends.

Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Eagles-Redskins

With football season back in full swing, legal online sportsbooks are offering tons of generous sign-up bonuses and lucrative promotions. Here are some of the best deals out there this week.

Pennsylvania

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. Only 1x Wager Applies, Playable in PA Only

We recommend the newly launched FOX Bet. The app is fun, with a level of engagement we haven’t seen from other sportsbooks. New users can get a $20 free bet and a $100 deposit match when they sign up right here .

 

New Jersey

Here are some our top picks available in the Garden State:

 

How to Watch Redskins-Eagles

  • Date: Sunday, September 8
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
  • Network: FOX
  • Announcers:  Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis, Pam Oliver

 

Eagles-Redskins Odds

Here are the current Redskins-Eagles betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:

FOX Bet

    Spread     Money        Total
Redskins     +10 (-110)  +380   O 44.5 (-110)
Eagles     -10 (-110)  -500   U 44.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Redskins     +10 (-110)  +350   O 45 (-110)
Eagles     -10  (-110)  -430   U 45 (-110)

PointsBet

    Spread     Money        Total 
Redskins     +10 (-105)   +350   O 45 (-105)
Eagles      -10 (-105)   -470   U 45 (-115)

 

Win Probability

Here is a look at the sportsbook moneyline probability in relation to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projections.

FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection has the Eagles as an 8.5-point favorite and gives them a 77% chance of winning the game. By this measure, with the Eagles currently a heavy 10-point favorite at most sportsbooks, there is some value on a Washington moneyline bet, though I don’t recommend this.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -430 moneyline odds at FanDuel, the current cheapest moneyline price at the legal PA and NJ sportsbooks, is 81.1%. In relation to the ELO projection of 77%, the Eagles are more expensive on the moneyline than they should be.

On the other hand, the implied probability of Washington at +350 moneyline odds is 22.2%, which is almost right in line with the ELO probability.

Even though a bet on the Redskins outright isn’t recommended, it’s clear the Eagles are being juiced up because local sprotsbooks take so much action on the home team. This extends to the spread, too, which… let’s get into it.

 

Betting Preview

Fascinating storylines are aplenty in this one. Carson Wentz begins his revenge tour on Sunday afternoon as he looks to silence his doubters and recapture the magic of his first 13 games back in 2017 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Like this kind of magic:

Speaking of revenge, Redskins quarterback Case Keenum would like some after a nightmarish performance with the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game game back in January 2018.

You probably recall that game, yes?

Revenge aside, Washington head coach Jay Gruden is looking to end a four-game losing streak to the Eagles in which his team has experienced four double-digit losses by an average of more than 15 points per game. With the spread currently set at 10, conventional wisdom suggests there’s a pretty good chance that streak could run to five games.

Frankly, the matchups, both head-to-head and narrative-based, appear daunting for Washington:

Head-to-head: Ereck Flowers vs. Fletcher Cox and 100-year-old Donald Penn vs. Derek Barnett

Narrative-based: Carson Wentz vs. Case Keenum

Bonus narrative-based: DeSean Jackson vs. his former team

As for that last one, if Jackson’s recent history against his former teams holds up, the Eagles should be in pretty good shape. You may recall his performance against the Eagles last season, which mirrored many of his other performances against his once former team:

 

More of that, please.

 

Betting Trends

Why Backing the Redskins is a Good Bet

Beware of the big number

Dating back to the 1993 season, the biggest Week 1 point spread favorite is 12-23 against the spread (ATS for short). At -10, the Eagles are currently the biggest favorite on the board. These Week 1 red flags, however, aren’t limited to just the biggest favorite.

Dating back to the 2003 season, favorites of a touchdown or more have struggled. Check this out:

7 or more points: 18-27 ATS

7.5 or more points: 10-23 ATS

9 or more points: 6-19 ATS

Meanwhile, favorites between exactly 8-10 points are 4-15 ATS. Brutal.

Still, if you’re an Eagles fan just hoping for a win, there’s good news. Favorites of nine or more points are 19-6 outright.

Big NFC East favorites struggle at home

All NFC East home favorites are 53-69-3 ATS in division games since the 2005 season, and the bigger the spread, the worse they fare.

Since ’05, NFC East teams favored at home in division contests by eight or more points are 6-12 ATS,  but the last eight times an NFC East team was favored by nine or more at home, they’ve failed to cover (0-8 ATS). Since the 2007 season, such teams are 1-10-1 ATS.

Good dogs

Gruden’s Washington teams are 5-1 ATS when a road dog of eight or more points, while Case Keenum is 3-1 ATS when the spread reaches that number. Keenum is also 9-4-1 ATS as a road dog of any spread.

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

They are better

The Eagles have the better coach, the better quarterback, the better offense, and the better defense. They’re also at home and should be supremely motivated to start fast with Wentz back.

Recent domination

After struggling for years with Washington, the Eagles have won four straight meetings between these two teams by double digit margins (15.5 points per game).

Good starts

Doug Pederson’s Eagles are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 games.

A small, but encouraging sample

Pederson’s Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home when favored by seven or more points and are 2-1 ATS when favored by nine or more points.

 

A Lean on the Under

Nobody wants to bet the under. Total snooze, I know, but it has hit in all three of the Eagles’ Week 1 games under Pederson. Moreover, the under is 18-8 at The Linc since Pederson took over and 13-5 when the total is 46 or less.

Meh.

 

Betting Splits

Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of 8:30 a.m. Friday morning:

63% of point spread bets and 66% of the point spread money backs the Eagles. Unsurprisingly, they are the public play across all reporting markets. I expect an even more drastic disparity at PA and NJ sportsbooks. People love to load up on the local squads.
As for the total, 76% percent of totals bets and 93% of the totals money is on the under. That’s why we’ve seen this line tick down to 44.5 at some books after sitting around the 46.5 range.

Eagles-Redskins Prediction

Prediction: Here’s what I’m not doing on Sunday: Betting on the Redskins. I can’t do it. I’m not backing Case Keenum on the road, particularly playing behind an offensive line should thoroughly get manhandled by the Eagles’ defensive front.

Still, big Week 1 spreads are historically a huge problem, as are big NFC East home favorites in division games. Those trends are enough to keep me off of this game. Still, if I had to get involved, I’d reluctantly take Washington +10 and the under.

Eagles 26, Redskins 18

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5 Comments

  • Rodney Anonymous Manilow September 6, 2019 at 5:36 pm

    I’m just going to the game to whack off to the Eagles male cheerleader. It’s gonna be a 3 sweat sock day. Oooooooooooooooogahhhh

    Reply
  • King of the Toys September 6, 2019 at 10:40 pm

    i’ll go on the record, Eagles cover the spread and it stays under. Something like 31-10 sounds right. Think it stays close for the first half, but talent just takes over in the second half. I realize it’s Week 1, but this Skins team is already a mess internally, Jay Gruden already has 1 foot out the door, Case Keenum knows he’s just a seat warmer, their o-line is going to get smashed and their skill position players on offense are non-existent. They have a decent front 7 on D and i think that will keep it close for a while, but that secondary is brutal. I’ll be back here monday morning to take my licks after the birds squeak out a 27-24 win

    Reply
  • King of all toys September 7, 2019 at 7:15 am

    I like 31-10. But if ur guna be jackin it down the Linc, do it under ur zumbas u delco scum.

    Reply
  • Unreadable September 7, 2019 at 12:28 pm

    This is the first website I’ve ever seen develop a gambling problem. Help is out there. 1-800-522-4700

    Reply
  • Vincent Joesph McFadden September 7, 2019 at 2:35 pm

    Fox bet says I csnt bet because I’m not in NJ I live in oa

    Reply
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