Eagles vs. Falcons Predictions: Betting Preview, Odds, and Picks

eagles falcons predictions

The Eagles will look to extend their winning streak over the Falcons to four on Sunday night, and there’s absolutely no doubt that it will be one of the most heavily bet games of Week 2. So let’s take a look at what you need to know ahead of this one before locking in your bets with our Eagles-Falcons predictions.

Both the Eagles and Falcons got off to slow starts last Sunday, but while Doug Pederson’s squad was able to flip the script at halftime of a 32-27 comeback win over Washington, Dan Quinn’s team never recovered in a 28-12 blowout loss at Minnesota.

That sets up a critical meeting between these two teams on Sunday night as the Eagles look to make an emphatic statement that they’re among the NFL’s elite, while the Falcons simply hope to avoid joining the Panthers at 0-2.

Despite the Seahawks and Texans each dropping their first two games (the Texans would drop their first three) last season, both teams still rallied to reach the postseason. Still, dating back to 2007, it has been an uphill battle for 0-2 squads as roughly only 10% of such teams go on to make the playoffs.

So, this is the backdrop–Matt Ryan and the desperate Falcons seeking revenge against the Eagles as they look to also put a damper on Carson Wentz’s revenge tour.

Who’s going to get it done on Sunday night? Let’s find out.

How to Bet on Eagles-Falcons

The initial NFL Week 1 rush of legal online sports betting in Pennsylvania may be over, but the signup bonuses, promos, and odds boosts keep coming both in PA and with NJ online sports betting. Let’s run through some of the best offers at the top sportsbooks this week.

Pennsylvania

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. Only 1x Wager Applies, Playable in PA Only

FanDuel Sportsbook PA is running a touchdown bonus on the Eagles and Falcons. Here’s how it works, from FanDuel:

Bet $25+ on any player to score the first TD in select games, and we’ll give you a bonus every time his team scores a TD.
Promotion Details:
Opt-in required
Minimum $25 bet to qualify
1 eligible wager per person, per game
Cash out bets ineligible
Live bets ineligible
First TD market bets only
Max bonus $25 per game
Bonus issued as site credit
Amount equal to site credit must be wagered before winnings can be withdrawn
Bonus expires 7 days after receipt

It is available to both new and current players.

 

New Jersey

Here are some our top picks available in New Jersey:

PointsBet is offering -105 spread lines on all NFL games and they have a $6 touchdown bonus for every TD the Eagles score if you place a spread bet of $50 or more on them.

Meanwhile, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a late-start NFL Pick ‘Em contest with $1 million in prizes. Entry is $500. It’s available to both new and current users. You can sign up here .

 

How to Watch Eagles-Falcons

  • Date: Sunday, September 15
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Network: NBC
  • Announcers:  Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), 92.9 The Game (Atlanta), XM 88

 

Eagles-Falcons Odds

Here are the current Eagles-Falcons betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     -2 (-110)  -116   O 52.5 (-110)
Falcons     +2 (-110)  +102   U 52.5 (-110)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     -1.5 (-110)  -124   O 52.5 (-110)
Falcons     +1.5 (-110)  +102   U 52.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     -1.5 (-110)  -120   O 52.5 (-110)
Falcons     +1.5 (-110)  +106   U 52.5 (-110)

PointsBet

    Spread     Money        Total 
Eagles     -1.5 (-105)   -125   O 52.5 (-110)
Falcons      +1.5 (-105)   +105   U 52.5 (-110)

 

Over-Under

The over-under of 52.5 in this one feels high, especially when you consider the relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams the past few years. But all of those games were in Philly. Atlanta is a different venue, and Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense is much better at home.

There’s also the case to be made for the Eagles as a top offensive unit in the NFL, one which hasn’t been priced accordingly yet.

There’s also some trends here.

This will only be the third game with Doug Pederson as a head coach where the total closed over 50, so if there’s ever an instance of the line telling you something, this might be it.

The over is also 18-9 in Doug Pederson road games, the opposite of what it is at home.

Do with that what you will.

 

Win Probability

As always, we like to take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it matches up with legal sportsbook odds in case there’s any potential value on the board.

FiveThirtyEight has the Eagles favored by 1.5 points and at a 55% win probability. With the Eagles currently installed as a two-point favorite at most sportsbooks, there is some ever so slight value on an Atlanta spread bet, though I don’t recommend this (spoiler alert!).

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FanDuel’s Eagles -128 moneyline odds, the current cheapest moneyline price at legal PA and NJ sportsbooks, is 56.1%. In relation to the ELO projection of 55%, the Eagles are just a tick overpriced on the moneyline, but basically in line with it.

As for the Falcons, the implied probability of their +112 moneyline odds is 47.2%, which is a little less of a payout than what the ELO projection suggests (+122).

Basically, there’s no substantial value gap on any of these plays, but neither side is egregiously overpriced or underpriced.

 

Betting Preview

Surely, the Falcons would like to pay back the Eagles for that 2016 mid-season loss at Lincoln Financial Field…and the 2017 postseason loss at Lincoln Financial Field…and that 2018 Week 1 loss at Lincoln Financial Field.

See a pattern here?

The Falcons will finally get the Eagles on their home turf this time around after being outscored by a 57-37 margin during their those three fruitless trips to Philadelphia, and they will also be hoping to turn the tables and avoid the aforementioned dreaded 0-2 start in the process.

If they’re going to do just that, they’ll need to shake off an atrocious Week 1 performance at Minnesota in which they fell behind 28-0 through three quarters before finding the end zone twice during garbage time.

The popular thinking is the Falcons should be a playoff contender this season and are thus due for a bounce back this week. In fact, I’ve heard some suggest that a closer look shows that things weren’t quite as bad as they seemed for Atlanta in Week 1.

After all, the Falcons had nine more first downs, more total yards, an edge in time of possession, and less penalties than the Vikings did last week.

That’s true, I guess, but the Atlanta offense allowed 13 hurries and four sacks, turned the ball over three times, converted only two of eight third down opportunities, while the defense yielded 172 yards on the ground.

Kirk Cousins had to throw the ball only 10 times. I mean, come on.

That should never happen.

Making matters worse for the Falcons is that an already shaky offensive line is now down a starting guard after Chris Lindstrom broke his foot last week, so all eyes will be on a much-hyped Eagles defensive line that struggled to generate pressure against Case Keenum.

Speaking of the Eagles, after scoring a total of only 41 points in the first quarter last season, the Eagles shot another opening round blank against Washington before Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson got things going with less than five minutes to go in the first half:

There was plenty more where that came from as Wentz found his newest target a total of eight times for 154 yards and two scores as part of a day in which he completed 28 of 39 pass attempts for 313 yards and three touchdowns.

That the Eagles outscored the Redskins by a 25-7 second half margin is probably the reason that most are willing to overlook their issues generating pressure up front and covering on the back end, but they’ll need to sure things up against Matt Ryan and a talented group of receivers.

That being said, it wasn’t all bad for the Eagles defense as it held Washington to only 28 yards on the ground and 2.2 yards per carry.

The bottom line? Both teams should be able to effectively move the football, but the defense that comes up with one more play will likely be the one walking out of Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a win come late Sunday night.

 

Betting Trends

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

Well, the Falcons Have Been a Bad Bet

Over its last nine games, Atlanta is only 2-7 ATS. For what it’s worth (probably not too much), the Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS over their last six games.

Quite the Spread

The Eagles are 8-2 ATS under Doug Pederson when between a two-point underdog and a two-point favorite. They’ve consistently covered tight spreads, and they’re 4-1 ATS on the road in the same range.

Doug over Dan

Pederson is 3-0 both straight up and ATS against Dan Quinn.

Prime-Time Guys

Pederson’s Eagles are 9-5 ATS overall in prime-time games and 5-2 on the road in prime-time games.

Big Total is a Big Problem for Falcons

With the total set at 51, it’s worth pointing out that Quinn’s Falcons teams are only 6-13 ATS when the total closes at 50 or more and 6-11 ATS when at 51 or more.

Why Backing the Falcons is a Good Bet

Welcome Home

The Falcons have been outstanding in home openers with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Since 2008, Atlanta is 10-1 both straight up and against the spread in their first home game.

Prime-time Dogs are Hot

Underdogs are 4-1 ATS and 3-2 outright so far this season in prime-time games.

Small Dog, Good Dog

Quinn’s teams are 5-2 ATS when between a pick’em and a two-point underdog. His teams are also 3-0 ATS as a home underdog.

We’ve Been Here Before

Go back to last season when the Falcons offense produced only 12 points in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles. They followed up that performance by dropping 31 points a week later at home in a 31-24 win over Carolina. As they say, one week does not a season make, or something like that.

Home Field Advantage

The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS over the last four meetings between these two teams.

Eagles Road Struggles Following a Win

Under Pederson, the Eagles are only 5-9 ATS after winning their previous game and then playing on the road. They’re also only 2-5 ATS when doing so as a road favorite.

 

Betting Splits

Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of 7 a.m. Sunday morning:

62% of point spread bets and 58% of the point spread money backs the Eagles, and, as usual, I anticipate an even more drastic disparity at PA and NJ sportsbooks. People love to load up on the local squads.
As for the total, 73% percent of totals bets and 78% of the totals money is on the over, which is why the total has blown past 51 where it stood earlier in the week.

Eagles-Falcons Predictions

Bob: I know. The Falcons are desperate, and they want revenge against the Eagles for their recent setbacks in Philly.

That’s cool, but here’s the problem–I just don’t see it happening.

Atlanta’s offensive and defensive lines are a mess, and while Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones will make their share of plays, I think the Eagles defensive front will take away the run and create some pressure that ultimately swings the game in Philly’s favor.

While I expect a spirited effort from Atlanta, I think the Eagles’ offensive firepower will prove too much to handle as they pull away late.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Falcons 23

Kyle: The Falcons were baaaaad last week. But they can certainly bounce back at home. I keep coming back to the fact that Doug Pederson is a better coach than Dan Quinn, much like he is a better coach than Sean McVay. Consider this– he is 5-0 SU and ATS against the last two NFC Super Bowl coaches besides himself.

The line movement in this one is also curious. The Eagles were slight dogs over the summer, a push on Sunday, and have now held steady at around a two-point favorite all week. Unless the line hits 3, I like the Eagles and the over.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Falcons 27

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2 Comments

  • Kel Varnsen September 15, 2019 at 10:43 pm

    I wish this website was more than just one large gambling advertisement.

    Reply
  • Fade crossing broad September 16, 2019 at 8:39 am

    Another great prediction!!

    Reply
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