Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Notre Dame Vs. Georgia Betting Preview
PHOTO CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER HANEWINCKEL-USA TODAY SPORTS

There’s good news for Notre Dame critics this week as the Fighting Irish travel to Georgia for a matchup between two Top 10 teams that, well, frankly, not too many believe they can win. Many PA sports betting sites have Notre Dame as much as a two touchdown underdog, including over at FOX Bet, where the Bulldogs currently sit at -14 as of early Saturday morning. Let’s get into it in our Notre Dame-Georgia betting preview.

Despite racing out to a 12-0 start a season ago, which included a convincing 38-17 September win over then No. 7 Stanford, Notre Dame heard all of the familiar doubts about their legitimacy as it charged its way into the College Football Playoff.

Then the Irish were blown out by Clemson in the semifinal.

If Notre Dame wants to ensure a shot at redemption, then its going to have to find a way tonight, and as for the school’s detractors that don’t want to see the Fighting Irish occupy one of the final four playoff spots come late-December, well, you better hope Georgia puts it on them because this is, by far, their toughest test.

Notre Dame’s late-October matchup against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor could be problematic. But Michigan once again looks vulnerable, and it’s hard to imagine the November run of Virginia Tech, Duke, Navy, Boston College and Stanford will stand in their way.

Who’s going to get it done tonight, and which team will cover the spread? Here’s how to bet it.

How to Bet on Notre Dame-Georgia

Pennsylvania

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As we near the quarter pole of the college football season, there’s no let up from PA online sports betting as there’s once again big signup bonuses, risk-free bets, odds boosts, and other fun promotional offers this week.

We mention this because prospective sports bettors should always shop for deals that help limit risk and maximize payouts. As such, make sure you’re getting the best odds, most advantageous spreads, and the most lucrative bonuses by checking out multiple sportsbooks.

Here’s a look at this week’s top deals:

FOX Bet has quickly emerged as one of the best legal online sportsbooks because of its quality welcome offer, user-friendly interface, fun odds boosts, and brand power fueled by FOX Sports. New users can cash on a free $20 sign up bonus and a $100 bet match on first deposit when they sign up here .

New Jersey

We strongly urger those of you in New Jersey to check out our must-see NJ online sports betting page for a thorough rundown of all the best promos and sign-up bonuses.

Among the top options this week include FanDuel Sportsbook, which is offering a $500 risk-free bet and Close Loss Insurance on the Notre Dame-Georgia game. Just place a moneyline bet on either side prior to kickoff and your bet will be refunded up to $50 if your team loses by six points or less.

William Hill NJ is another top option. Take advantage of a free $50 when you place a $50 bet by signing up here .

William Hill also has a Saturday Upset Special promotion that allows users to get 100% cash back if a moneyline bet of +300 or greater loses by six points or less, which, obviously, would apply to this matchup and dozens of others on today’s slate.

PointsBet is another top option offering a generous new promo–deposit $50, get $100 . Free money, always good. Always.

 

How to Watch Notre Dame-Georgia

It will be Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson on the call in this one with sideline reports from Jamie Erdahl.

  • Date: Saturday, September 21
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Sanford Stadium (Athens, GA)
  • Network: CBS
  • Satellite: Sirius XM Radio Channel 84

 

Notre Dame-Georgia Odds

Here are the current Notre Dame-Georgia odds at the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10 a.m. Saturday morning:

FOX Bet

    Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame     +14 (+100)   +450   O 57.5 (-118)
Georgia     -14 (-118)   -650   U 57.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook.

    Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame     +14 (-110)  +470  57 (-110)
Georgia     -14 (-110)  -650  57 (-110)

William Hill

    Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame     +14.5 (-110)  +500  57.5 (-110)
Georgia     -14.5 (-110)  -700  57.5 (-110)

 

Win Probability

Projection systems such as FPI aren’t always accurate predictors of a game’s outcome, but we like to take a look at how different models stack up against the implied probability of moneyline odds to see if any potential betting value exists. If there’s such a pronounced disparity in the numbers, there could be an opportunity for bettors to hammer.

ESPN’s FPI index gives Georgia a 67.3% win probability.

The Georgia moneyline of -650 at FanDuel carries an implied win probability of 86.7%, so in relation to the FPI number, they’re wildly overpriced on the moneyline.

As for Notre Dame, the +470 payout carries a 17.5% win probability, which is significantly less than the 32.7% FPI win probability, so there’s quite a bit of moneyline value on Notre Dame here.

 

Betting Preview

Nearly 100,000 people will pack Sanford Stadium in Athens tonight to watch two Top 10 teams with championship aspirations go head-to-head.

The stakes are high with the loser, particularly if it’s Notre Dame, potentially finding itself on the outside looking in when the dust settles from the playoff chaos come December.

The Georgia faithful aren’t messing around:

Take that, completely unaffiliated soap company!

Notre Dame enters having won 15 of its last 16 contests, the lone blemish coming in its final game last season, a 30-3 thumping in the CFP Semifinal at the hands of eventual champion Clemson. Tonight, they’ll have the opportunity to earn some respect and avenge a bitter 20-19 loss to Georgia in South Bend two seasons ago if they can vanquish a Top 5 team on the road for the first time in 14 years.

The Bulldogs don’t figure to be a willing opponent. Georgia enters at 3-0 and is outscoring teams by a 148-23 margin.

Headlining this showdown is the quarterback matchup, and it should be fun to watch.

Georgia’s Jake Fromm enters completing 75% of his passes for 5 touchdowns and 0 picks, while Notre Dame’s Ian Book has already rushed for over 100 yards and two scores while averaging over 19 yards per completion.

And yet, this game may come down to whether or not Notre Dame’s defensive line can keep Georgia’s dynamic run game in check. Led by star running back D’Andre Swift and a powerful offensive line, the Bulldogs are rushing for over 286 yards per game, good for the eighth-most among FBS teams.

 

Betting Trends

Why Backing Notre Dame Makes Sense

The Value is There

This spread has gotten a bit out of hand. It opened with Georgia as a 12-point favorite at several sportsbooks earlier this week. FPI indicates this game could be much closer than what the betting market suggests. Notre Dame is one of the most balanced teams in the country and has plenty of talent, including a defensive line that can flat-out get after the quarterback. SEC bias and Notre Dame’s absolutely abysmal performance in last year’s CFP Semifinal are undoubtedly impacting the way the public views this game.

Brian Kelly’s Success as an Underdog

  • Brian Kelly’s teams are 2-1 ATS as a 14+ point underdog against Top 10 opponents.
  • Kelly’s teams are 32-16-2 ATS as an underdog and 19-9 ATS as a road underdog throughout his career.
  • Kelly’s teams are 5-0 ATS as a road underdog of 9-16 points.

Why Backing Georgia Makes Sense

Big Spreads, Big Success

The huge point spread jumps out here, so I wanted to know how huge favorites in games between two Top 10 teams have historically performed in this spot. I wasn’t surprised by what I found:

  • In games between two Top 10 teams where one squad is favored by 10 points or more, those teams are 21-14 ATS (60% cover rate).
  • When they’re favored by 13 points or more, they’re 10-5 ATS (66% cover rate).
  • When favored by 14 points or more, they are 8-4 ATS (66% cover rate).
  • Finally, when such teams are favored by 14 points or more and are at home, they’re 6-2 ATS (75% cover rate).

So what’s the takeaway? Huge favorites in games between two Top 10 teams have been a good bet.

Kirby Smart Covers at Home

Georgia excels at home. The Bulldogs have won 15 straight games in Athens by an average of nearly 30 points per game.

Georgia is Good When it Counts the Most

Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, the Bulldogs have gone 12-5 ATS against ranked teams.

Georgia is also 11-4 ATS over its last 15 games against opponents that enter with winning records.

 

Betting Splits

As of 10 a.m. Saturday morning, 59% of the spread bets and 73% of the spread money is on Georgia across all reporting legal markets.

As for the total, 53% of totals bets and 56% of the money is on the over, so if you like to go against the money, Notre Dame and the under it is.

 

Notre Dame-Georgia Prediction

I don’t see any scenario in which Georgia loses this football game. Its powerful offensive line should slow a talented group of Notre Dame edge rushers, and I have questions about the ability of the Fighting Irish’s interior defensive line to slow Swift and the rest of the Bulldogs’ rushing attack.

The aforementioned trends about big favorites being successful in Top 10 matchups are a concern, but Notre Dame has enough talent and should be plenty motivated enough to keep this game respectable.

Pick: Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24

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