Packers vs. Bears Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks
After a brutally long and largely uneventful summer, the NFL’s 100th season officially kicks off tonight at Soldier Field with an NFC North clash. Let’s get into it in our Bears-Packers betting preview.
Meaningful professional football is back, and while that alone is reason enough to tune in to NBC at 8 pm tonight, those of you in Pennsylvania and New Jersey can also legally bet on it. With PA online sports betting now live with five sportsbooks ready to take your bets, there’s no shortage of action in this one.
Close your eyes, breathe in that truth, and let the goodness of this glorious reality course through your body.
As if that isn’t enough, this game is rife with intriguing storylines and betting angle.
Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur will make his regular season head coaching debut against Matt Nagy and the Bears. Of course, it was the Packers that spoiled Nagy’s first regular season game back in Week 1 of last season when they erased a 20-0 third quarter deficit on their way to an improbable 24-23 win.
The Bears got the last laugh last season, however, as they cruised to an NFC North title, while the Packers fired Mike McCarthy on their way to a disappointing 6-9-1 finish.
Will the Bears build on their success of a season ago? Or will Aaron Rodgers lead Green Bay back to the top?
Let’s run through the best sportsbook promotions, odds, and game trends in this full Packers-Bears betting preview so that you can open the NFL season with a bang.
How to Bet on Bears-Packers
Pennsylvania
There are plenty of excellent promos and sign-up bonuses to take advantage of out there. Here are our favorite sportsbooks to place your bets for Thursday Night Football:
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New Jersey
Our top picks include:
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How to Watch Bears-Packers
It will be Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call as NBC once again has the rights to the NFL opener this season.
- Date: Thursday, September 5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
- Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
- Network: NBC
Bears-Packers Odds
Here are the current Packers-Bears betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:
Spread | Money | Total | |
Packers | +3 (-105) | +144 | O 46.5 (-110) |
Bears | -3 (-115) | -166 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Spread | Money | Total | |
Packers | +3 (-110) | +140 | O 46.5 (-110) |
Bears | -3 (-110) | -175 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Spread | Money | Total | |
Packers | +3 (-110) | +140 | O 46.5 (-110) |
Bears | -3 (-110) | -167 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Spread | Money | Total | |
Packers | +3 (-105) | +146 | O 46.5 (-110) |
Bears | -3 (-105) | -171 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Win Probability
Let’s look at the sportsbook moneyline probability in relation to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projections.
While such projection systems are far from perfect, using one such as ELO allows for a comparison point to track where there could be some potential betting value on the board.
FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection makes the Bears a four-point favorite and gives Chicago a 64% chance of winning the game. By this measure, with the Bears currently a three-point favorite at most sportsbooks, there is some value on a Chicago spread bet.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -167 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 62.5%. In relation to the ELO projections, the Bears are just a shade cheaper on the moneyline than they should be.
On the other hand, the implied probability of Green Bay at +140 moneyline odds is 41.7%, which far exceeds the 36% ELO projection. This means the Packers are juiced up a little bit and don’t carry moneyline betting value. The Bears are the better bet from a value standpoint, if you put any weight into Nate Silver’s methods, which we do.
Betting Preview
I noted it above, but it’s worth repeating. This is a revenge game for the Bears and head coach Matt Nagy:
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It doesn’t matter that Chicago went on to reach the postseason. It doesn’t matter that Green Bay went on to have a disastrous season. And it doesn’t matter that Chicago later avenged the loss last December. I’m sure there’s nothing the Bears would like more than to return the favor for that season-opening shocker and set the tone for what many expect will be a deep playoff run.
As is often the case, much will be made of the two quarterbacks ahead of this game.
Will LaFleur help Aaron Rodgers shake off a somewhat underwhelming 2018 season? Despite throwing for 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions a season ago, Rodgers finished with his lowest TD% and QBR since becoming the Packers full-time starting quarterback in 2008.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky will attempt to take the next step in his second full season as the Bears’ starting quarterback.
After a promising season in which he threw for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns, he led the Bears to only 15 points in a home playoff loss to the Eagles at Soldier Field in last year’s NFC Wild Card round.
While that game will be remembered for the “double-doink,” had then-kicker Cody Parkey drilled the potential game-winning field goal, the narrative would’ve been all about Trubisky’s ability to engineer a clutch late-game scoring drive.
That’s life in the NFL, I guess.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s defense will be led by a different coordinator, but it should once again be an elite unit. Former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano takes over for Vic Fangio, who is now Denver’s head coach. Aside from some unknowns about schematic tweaks, this defense enters the season with few, if any, question marks. They can stop the run, they can get after the quarterback, and they can cover.
There’s not quite as much certainty about a Green Bay defense that underwent some major changes this offseason.
Defensive tackle Mike Daniels is now in Detroit, while the Packers added big-name free agent linebackers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith to boost the pass rush. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine hopes those additions will help improve a group that was 22nd in scoring defense.
Betting Trends
Why Backing Green Bay is a Good Bet
Aaron Rodgers, of course
I talked about how Rodgers is coming off a bit of a down season, one in which he threw for 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
In a down season.
He’s cerebral, he can still extend plays with his legs, and he’s clutch. The Bears can attest to all of those things as they watched Rodgers work his magic in that miracle Week 1 comeback win last season. He remains an elite quarterback, and in a quarterback-driven league, he’s a guy you want in your corner.
Series Dominance
Simply put, Green Bay has owned this series in recent seasons. The Packers have won eight of their last nine against the Bears, although the lone loss came in the last meeting between these two teams.
Watch the line
Keep an eye on the line as kickoff approaches. Green Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog of 3-4 points when Aaron Rodgers starts. Specifically, they are 3-1 ATS when an underdog of exactly four points.
Why Backing Chicago is a Good Bet
Sweet revenge
I believe in revenge spots, and as I explained earlier, this is absolutely a revenge spot for Chicago.
Going streaking
The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against NFC North opponents. Green Bay, meanwhile, is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against NFC North opponents and has lost 9 of 10 games overall on the road.
Trubisky is money
Quite literally, Mitch Trubisky is money. He’s 17-8-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season, making him the league’s most profitable ATS quarterback during that span. He’s also 5-0 ATS in prime-time games and 7-2 ATS (6-0 ATS with Nagy last season) when he starts as a home favorite.
Troubling trends for Green Bay
The Packers are only 6-9-1 ATS when an underdog of three points or less when Rodgers starts. They’re also only 11-16-1 ATS as a road dog overall when he starts. My take? When oddsmakers install Green Bay as an underdog, it’s for a reason.
Here’s some more proof. The Packers are 3-9-1 ATS when Rodgers starts as a prime-time underdog and only 7-13-1 ATS in his prime-time road starts. Things don’t get better for Rodgers in this role within the division. The Packers are only 2-5 ATS as a divisional road underdog when he starts.
One last thing: Green Bay is 0-5 when Rodgers starts as a road underdog in September.
Ouch.
North Trends
NFC North home favorites of three points or less in September division games are 5-0-1 ATS. They’re 6-1-1 ATS when favored by four or less and 14-8-1 ATS when favored by any amount.
Betting Splits
Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of late Wednesday night:
Packers-Bears Prediction
Prediction: Can I see a scenario in which Rodgers goes into Soldier Field and continues his recent overall mastery of the Bears? I guess so, but it’s much easier to envision a scenario where Green Bay experiences some early growing pains in LaFleur’s offense, the Chicago defense makes a few big plays in front of the home grown, and Trubisky has a good night against an improved but still evolving defense.
Green Bay has the advantage at quarterback, but I believe Chicago has the better overall offense, better defense, and better special teams.
Give me Chicago.
Bears 26, Packers 18