Titans vs. Jaguars Predictions: Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

titans vs. jaguars betting preview
PHOTO CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER HANEWINCKEL-USA TODAY SPORTS

When I think about Thursday Night Football and all that it encompasses–the often lethargic play, the frequent absence of any true drama, and a three-plus hour viewing experience that is typically best described as watching football simply for the sake of watching football–I think about the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Let’s get into it in our Titans-Jaguars betting preview.

It’s not that Jacksonville and Tennessee haven’t had some decent teams in recent years, it’s just that, I mean, they’re kind of…boring? Truly, this is a game that only a sports bettor could love, so good news for those of you placing wagers tonight, you have come to the right place.

Let’s go on a deep dive on how to bet and survive this early-season AFC South “clash” in our Titans-Jaguars betting preview.

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How to Bet on Titans-Jaguars

Pennsylvania

It’s Week 3 and there are still several excellent sign-up bonuses and promotions at PA sportsbooks. Here are some of the top legal online sportsbooks to place your Thursday Night Football plays:

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New Jersey

Over at the New Jersey sports betting apps, there continues to be several great options. Among them:

 

Titans-Jaguars Betting Promos

It’s not just about lucrative sign-up bonuses and risk-free bets. There are several great promotions and odds boosts out there as well. Here are some of the best for tonight’s game.

FanDuel Sportsbook PA

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Same Game Parlay bet that, you guessed it, allows users to build their own same-game parlays. Think Derrick Henry is going to score and the total will stay under 39? You can bet on it or build your own from dozens of other options.

And you don’t have to worry about getting beat on a close loss because FanDuel is offering close loss insurance for all Week 3 games.

They are also offering $50 moneyline insurance on all Week 3 games.

 

PointsBet

This Titans-Jaguars game is a perfect spot to take advantage of the PointsBet First TD Early Payout promo.  Here’s how it works. Lock in a pre-game moneyline bet on either side of Thursday and Monday night games. If your team finds paydirt first, you get paid on your bet up to the first $100 staked.

 

DraftKings Sportsbook

The total is currently set at 39, but bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook will be hoping for some unexpected offense tonight.

There will be boosts on Marcus Mariota touchdown passes, Derrick Henry to score the first touchdown, both teams to score in the first quarter, and a special second half boost that will hit the board after kickoff.

DraftKings also has an Offensive Defense promo that helps protect bettors when their teams can’t stop the opposition. If you back the Titans or Jags and they score at least 24 points but still lose, DraftKings will credit your wager back as a free bet of up to $25. Not quite sure that either squad is going to get there tonight, but we’ll see.

 

How to Watch Titans-Jaguars

It will once again be Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call with reports by Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink from the sidelines as the top FOX crew will provide the telecast for NFL Network.

  • Date: Thursday, September 19
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
  • Network: NFL Network
  • Sirius/XM: Sirius 81, XM 225, SXM 225, Streaming 830
  • National Radio: Westwood One Sports

 

Titans-Jaguars Odds

You better shop around.

We recommend bettors always shop prices to make sure they’re taking advantage of the market’s best odds and prices.  With that said, here are the current Tians-Jaguars betting odds at some of the best legal online sportsbooks as of 12:00 p.m. Thursday.

FanDuel Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Titans     -1.5 (-115)   -122   O 39 (-110)
Jaguars     +1.5  (-105)   +106   U 39 (-110)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Titans     -1.5 (-110)  -125   O 39 (-110)
Jaguars      +1.5 (-110)  +104   U 39 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Titans      -1.5 (-110)   -121   O 39 (-110)
Jaguars      +1.5 (-110)   +107   U 39 (-110)

PointsBet

    Spread     Money        Total 
Titans     -1.5 (-105)  -125   O 39 (-110)
Jaguars     +1.5  (-105)  +105   U 39 (-110)

 

Win Probability

As always, let’s take a brief look at the sportsbook point spreads and moneyline probabilities in relation to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection.

I like to start with the following disclaimer: ELO and other projection models aren’t always accurate predictors of future events, but they serve as a comparison point to track where there could exist some potential betting value.

The ELO point spread projection installs Tennessee as a five-point favorite and gives them a healthy 67% win probability tonight. With the Titans currently on the board as only a 1.5-point favorite across several of the the major legal online sportsbooks, ELO indicates bettors are getting roughly 3.5 points of value by backing Tennessee.

As for moneyline value, the implied win probability of the Titans’ -122 moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is 55%. In relation to the ELO projection, the Titans are extremely under-priced. ELO’s 67% win probability suggests the Tennessee moneyline should be in the -200 neighborhood.

The Titans are an excellent value tonight.

On the other hand, the Jags’ +105 moneyline odds carry a 48.8% win probability, which is far greater than the 33% ELO projection, and thus it doesn’t  provide betting value.

 

Betting Preview

Things are going just great down in Jacksonville!

Okay, maybe not.

The Jaguars are now 0-2 after a tough loss at Houston a week ago, and it appears a very real possibility that star cornerback Jalen Ramsey could be playing his last game with the team as trade rumors continue to swirl.

Still, an argument can be made that things may not be quite as bleak for Jacksonville as they currently seem in a suspect AFC South.

Despite the winless start, the Jags can take away a few positives from a rough two weeks.

They produced over 400 yards of total offense and hung with the Chiefs in several key statistical categories in a 40-26 Week 1 loss despite losing starting quarterback Nick Foles early on in that game.

Last week, the Jacksonville defense limited Houston to only 13 points on the road, and rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, who has completed 77.6% of his passes for 488 yards and three touchdowns, led a brilliant late-game drive in his first career start that brought his team within a point.

And then, well, you know:

I still can’t believe Doug Marrone took the ball out of Minshew’s hands in that spot.

As for this week, the Jags have a quick turnaround and an opportunity to jump back into the division race in a game that’s as close to a must-win situation as a team can face in Week 3.

As for the Titans, they followed their Week 1 upset road rout of the Cleveland Browns with a disappointing dud of a performance as a 3.5 point favorite in their home opener against Indianapolis last week:

The Titans have been a little bit hard to figure out through two weeks, particularly on the offensive side of the football.

Marcus Mariota is completing 63.5% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, continuing a streak of four games without a pick dating back to late last season. Given this, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that Tennessee sports a sterling +5 turnover differential in the early going.

Despite Mariota’s promising start and a defense that’s allowing only 16 points per game through two weeks, the Titans find themselves at 1-1 because of two glaring weaknesses:

  1. Pass protection
  2. Third down (in)efficiency

The Titans have allowed four sacks in each of their first two games, which probably helps to explain why they’ve often found themselves in third and long situations. That has clearly been an issue as the Titans have converted only 3 of 20 third down opportunities to start the season.

They’ll try to get things going this week against Jacksonville’s 21st-ranked third down defense that is allowing opponents to convert on 44% of third down opportunities.

 

Betting Trends

Why Backing the Titans is a Good Bet

Desperation Doesn’t Always Equal Success

Off of two tough losses to start the season, I liked the idea of backing Jacksonville as a desperate and ultra-motivated home underdog this week. Foolishly, I assumed the historical betting trends would back my thesis that this would be a good spot for a play on the Jags.

As it turns out, there are several trends working against Jacksonville this week. Consider the following: 

  • AFC South road favorites of 2.5 points or less are 7-4-1 ATS over their last 12 division games.
  • AFC South home underdogs of three points or less that are coming off a loss in their previous contest are only 4-10-1 ATS in division games.
  • All NFL home underdogs on a two-game losing streak are only 29-45-3 ATS in division games, and when they are home underdogs of three points or less, they’re a brutal 12-20-3 ATS. Add in the prime-time element to that same situation, and they’re 2-5 ATS.
  • Home dogs of any spread in division games on a two-game losing streak are only 3-11 ATS the last 14 games. 

So much for that theory.

Recent History Favors the Titans

Tennessee has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams and has covered five of the last six contests.

Night Terrors

Doug Marrone is 0-3 ATS in prime-time games as an NFL head coach.

Why Backing the Jaguars is a Good Bet

As I noted above, Jacksonville has had some encouraging moments through two weeks, but hasn’t been able to put it all together yet. Beyond that, there are also some trends supporting a Jags play. 

Mariota a Mush as a Road Favorite

The Titans are only 3-7 ATS when Marcus Mariota starts as a road favorite. He’s also only 1-3 ATS on on the road in prime-time games (compared to 3-0 ATS at home). 

Marrone’s Teams Have Been Good as a Home Dog

Marrone teams are 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog. For the purposes of full disclosure, however, he covered six of seven such contests in Buffalo, but is just 3-2-1 ATS in this role with Jacksonville. Still, Marrone teams are 7-2-1 ATS when a home dog of four points or less. 

 

Betting Splits

Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon:

The public is hammering Tennessee. 79% of point spread bets and 73% of the spread money is on the Titans.

As for the total, 65% of totals bets and 61% of totals money is on the under. If you like to go against the public money, then the Jags and the over it is.

 

Titans-Jaguars Prediction

Can I see a scenario in which Jacksonville rallies after two losses to open the season? 

Absolutely. 

Gardner Minshew has been impressive, and Jacksonville could have success establishing a power run game against a Titans defense allowing 134.5 yards per game on the ground. Throw in Tennessee’s suspect pass protection and third down struggles, and a Jacksonville outright win is entirely plausible.  

However, I expect the Titans to clean up their pass protection and do a better job on third downs in this game, and while I initially thought this seemed like a good spot for the Jags to rally, the historical trends don’t suggest that will happen. After his blowup with Ramsey a week ago, I also wonder if Marrone still has the support of his locker room. Too many questions for me. I’ll go with the Titans. 

Titans 23, Jaguars 17

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2 Comments

  • bruh September 20, 2019 at 9:50 am

    ouch…

    Reply
  • Rhawnhurst Rascal September 20, 2019 at 1:53 pm

    U suck at this. Steelers now Titans. Please, just stop. U have no clue at what U R doing & it’s beyond me how Kyle continues to post this trash analysis.

    Reply
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