49ers vs. Cardinals Predictions: Odds and Picks for Thursday Night Football

49ers vs. Cardinals betting odds, picks, predictions
PHOTO CREDIT: KYLE TERADA-USA TODAY SPORTS

The 49ers and Cardinals kick off Week 9 of the NFL regular season schedule tonight when these two NFC West squads meet up at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, and you can bet on all of the Thursday Night Football action at the top PA online sportsbooks. Just where should your hard-earned money go? Let’s answer that question with our 49ers vs. Cardinals betting preview.

The San Francisco 49ers are rolling.

You want offense? They’ve got it. Entering Week 9, the 49ers are the league’s third-best scoring team at 29.6 points per game.

You want defense? They’ve got that, too, as they enter tonight allowing only 11 points per game.

San Francisco, along with New England, are the league’s only two remaining unbeaten teams, and the 49ers looked poised to remain perfect this week as a double-digit favorite ahead of kickoff.

So hammer the 49ers, right? Actually, we advise against that move. We will explain why in just a bit, but before we do, let’s first take a look at the current odds, most important betting trends, and best sportsbook promos available ahead of kickoff.

How to Bet on 49ers vs. Cardinals

Pennsylvania

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There are plenty of odds boosts, excellent betting promos, and sign-up bonuses to be had out there as Week 9 of the NFL season gets underway tonight. As always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market’s best deals.

We strongly recommend FOX Bet PA because of its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less.

New Jersey

For those of you in the state of New Jersey, our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is loaded with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses is a must-see.

Indiana

FanDuel Sportsbook launched in Indiana last week, giving the Indiana online sports betting market another competitor to join top option DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana. DraftKings Sportsbook is our favorite Indiana legal online sportsbook, and offers a generous $200 first-bet match available to new users right here.

 

How to Watch 49ers vs. Cardinals

  • Date: Thursday, October 31
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
  • Network: FOX/NFL Network
  • Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink (sideline)
  • Radio: KNBR 680 (San Francisco), 98.7 FM (Phoenix)

49ers vs. Cardinals Weather

There’s no doubt that matchups and situational trends matter most, but placing a bet on a game without checking the weather report is just irresponsible.

The retractable roof at State Farm Stadium is expected to be open for tonight’s game. Clear skies are expected with temperatures right around 70 degrees at kickoff. Skies will remain clear and temps will dip into the upper 60s by the fourth quarter. It should be a picturesque night in Glendale.

49ers vs. Cardinals Odds

Here are the current 49ers-Cardinals betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 12:00 p.m. Thursday afternoon:

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
49ers     -10 (-110)      -500   O 43.5 (-105)
Cardinals      +10 (-110)      +380   U 43.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
49ers     -10 (-118)      -435   O 43 (-110)
Cardinals      +10 (-103)     +370   U 43 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
49ers      -10.5 (-105)     -450   O 43 (-110)
Cardinals      +10.5 (-115)    +360   U 43 (-110)

 

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Why?

ELO and similar projection models aren’t a perfect science, but it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.

As for tonight’s game, the ELO projection model has the 49ers favored by eight points and with a 75% win probability. With San Francisco currently favored between 10 and 10.5 points, ELO suggests there is as much as 2.5 points of betting value on the Cardinals. It’s not too hard to believe this spread may be inflated because the public will want to back the 49ers after their 51-13 demolition of Carolina last Sunday.

The implied win probability of FanDuel’s -450 moneyline odds is 81.8%, which means that the moneyline price is substantially more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-300 would be in line with a 75% win probability).

As for the Cardinals, the implied win probability of their +360 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 21.1%, meaning their moneyline market provides some slight value.

Recommended Bets

FOX Bet excels at incorporating the FOX Sports brand and the network’s talent into its betting app. Cousin Sal’s Custom Sal’s Money Back Special has been a popular Thursday night promo, and this week’s guaranteed money-back offer is on the game total to go over 49.5 points and tight end George Kittle to go over 49.5 receiving yards at +250 odds.

49.5 points, 49.5 yards, 49ers…get it? Cute.

Some quick analysis on this two-part play:

  • Kittle looks like a pretty good bet to go over 49.5 yards. He’s had at least 54 yards receiving in six of seven games this season and has gone over that total in 19 of 23 games since the start of the 2018 season. Also this:

  • As for the over component, the 49ers are only allowing 11 points per game, but the over is 8-3 in Thursday division games when the spread closes between 42.5 and 43.5 points, so there is some evidence that suggests we could be in for some unexpected scoring this evening, perhaps enough to clear that inflated 49.5 total.

Also of note, FOX Bet is offering a +500 boost on the Flames, 49ers, Baylor and the Clippers to each win outright, along with 10 different bet bosts on the 49ers-Cardinals game, including:

  • Tevin Coleman to score 2+ touchdowns (boosted to +320 from +270)
  • Kenyan Drake to score 2+ touchdowns (boosted to +2000 from +1600)
  • 49ers -7.5, Garoppolo 260+ pass yards, Sanders 75+ receiving yards, 49ers 3+ TDs (boosted to +450 from +300)
  • Cardinals +10.5, Murray 250+ pass yards, Kirk 75+ receiving yards,  Cardinals 3+ TDs (boosted to +650 from +550)

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering bet protection on the first player to score a TD. Just bet on which player will score the game’s first touchdown and get protected with your money back if your player doesn’t score first but goes on to score later. Bets will be refunded up to $20.

My pick is on George Kittle. The 49ers put up 51 points last week and Kittle didn’t get a taste of the end zone. In fact, Kittle has only scored once this season despite hauling in 40 catches, but I think he gets his second score of the season early on tonight.

DraftKings also has a cool Trick and Treat promo running for this game tonight. Place a full-game spread bet on either side and get an extra $5 towards a free bet each time your team scores a touchdown (treat) or turns the ball over (trick). This delightful Halloween treat will be issued and available for use tomorrow.

49ers vs. Cardinals Betting Trends

Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the 49ers is a Good Bet

Short Week Bodes Well for Division Favorites

Road favorites in division games are 22-15-2 ATS on Thursdays and road favorites in games between NFC West teams are 4-2-1 ATS on Thursdays.

Underdogs of eight points or more are only 1-7 ATS on Thursdays and 1-4 ATS when dogs of 10 points or more.

Lucky Sevens

Road teams that are on a seven-game winning streak are 36-17 ATS overall and 19-4 ATS when on the road.

Why Backing the Cardinals is a Good Bet

There are several trends that support big home underdogs, particularly ones going against good teams that are coming off of impressive performances.

  • Home underdogs of 10-11 points to teams allowing less than 19 points per game are 14-7 ATS.
  • Home underdogs of 9-11 points are 60-43 ATS overall. When they’re dogs of 10-11 points, they are 32-20 ATS.
  • Home underdogs of 9-11 points are 25-15 ATS in division games. When they’re underdogs of 10-11 points, such teams are 15-7 ATS.
  • Home underdogs of 10-13 points are 4-0 ATS in games played between two NFC West teams.
  • Home underdogs of 7+ points that are coming off a 20+ point loss and playing a team coming off a 20+ point win are 9-5 ATS.
  • Home underdogs in division games are 6-2-1 ATS against teams that scored at least 50 points in its previous game.

A Word on the Total

As noted above, the over is 8-3 in Thursday division games when the spread closes between 42.5-43.5 points.

The over is also 28-16 in all division games when the spread closes between 42.5-43.5 points. Using these same guidelines, the over is also 24-11 after the month of September and 18-7 in games played during Week 9 or later.

What about San Francisco’s elite defense? The over is 15-10-1 when the road team is allowing 11 points or less per game in October or later.

Where’s the Action Going?

As of 1 p.m. Thursday, 73% of spread bets and 71% of the spread handle backs the 49ers.

In terms of totals bets, 64% of bets are on the over and 56% of the money is on the over.

49ers vs. Cardinals Prediction

It’s time to make a 49ers vs. Cardinals prediction.

It takes a strong stomach to do this, but I’m rolling with the Cardinals tonight.

San Francisco is coming off of a dominant performance on both sides of the ball at home against Carolina and looks unbeatable. History has shown us, however, that teams coming off impressive wins tend to struggle as big road favorites in their following game. The theory is that such performances cause some inflation in the point spread. I’ll grab that added value because I expect the Cardinals will keep things reasonably close, particularly after getting blown out in New Orleans last week. With the public all over the 49ers, I’ll gladly line up on the other side and take the points with the home team. I’ll throw in a play on the over, too.

Prediction: Cardinals (+10.5) over 49ers and OVER 43

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