The Eagles have had success playing the underdog card over the previous two seasons, and they will have the opportunity to reprise that same role this afternoon in Buffalo. Not only are the Bills a small favorite at all of the PA online sportsbooks, the Eagles come into this game fresh off an embarrassing beat down in Dallas and an almost equally embarrassing week of off the field drama. We will break it all down and check out the current odds, best betting promos, and make some predictions and picks in our Eagles vs. Bills betting preview.

Note: The over under has moved to 40.5 with strong winds and potential rain showers in the weather forecast.

There was some hope after the Eagles annihilated the Jets at Lincoln Financial Field a few weeks ago that the team was ready to put an unexpectedly bumpy start behind them. At the time, the presumption was that they were getting healthier ahead of difficult but manageable games at Minnesota and Dallas. That didn’t happen and the Eagles proceeded to play non-competitive football in two blowout losses by a combined 45 points in which a disjointed offense struggled to gain traction and couldn’t cover for a hemorrhaging defense.

The ugly numbers match the ugly play. Doug Pederson’s offense has converted on only 6 of 21 third-downs, while the defense has given up a total of 849 yards and an average 37.5 points per game over the last two weeks.

Sprinkle in a touch of drama sparked by anonymous sources publicly pointing fingers, team leaders bickering through the media, and a scorned ex-Eagle airing locker room issues on national television, and we have ourselves a football team that looks to be on the brink of collapse.

Can the Eagles put a rough week in the rearview mirror by salvaging the final leg of a tumultuous three-game October road trip and stabilize a season that is seemingly spiraling out of control, or will the Bills’ continue their surprising early-season run and move to 6-1? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Bills

Pennsylvania

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There are plenty of excellent promo deals and sign-up bonuses out there to be had ahead of today’s action.Before we get into those, as always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market’s best deals.

We strongly recommend FOX Bet PA which is offering 10 different bet boosts on today’s Eagles-Bills game along with a $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less.

New Jersey

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For those of you in the state of New Jersey, check out our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is stocked with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses.

Indiana

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The best wagering option for Indiana online sports betting is DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, which is offering a generous $200 first-bet match available to new users right here.

FanDuel Sportsbook is now also live in Indiana and offering a $500 risk-free first bet.

 

How to Watch Eagles vs. Bills

  • Date: Sunday, October 27
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: New Era Field (Orchard Park, NY)
  • Network: FOX
  • Announcers:Chris Myers (play-by-play), Daryl Johnston (analyst), Laura Okmin (sideline)
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), WGR 550 (Buffalo)

 

Eagles vs. Bills Weather

It’s always a good idea to check the game conditions before locking in a play, and the conditions could be a major factor this afternoon.

Partly cloudy skies on Sunday morning in Orchard Park will give way to cloud cover and possible rain showers right around kickoff. Currently, there is approximately a 40% chance of precipitation throughout the game, but the winds, which will be blowing from 23-26 mph throughout, are also expected to be an issue. These conditions will likely have an impact on both teams’ passing and kicking games. Incidentally, the game total has plummeted from 43.5 earlier in the week to 40.5 as of Sunday morning.

Eagles vs. Bills Injury Report

Injuries continue to be a major concern for the Eagles. They will once again be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, linebacker Nigel Bradham, and left tackle Jason Peters, among others:

 

As for the Bills, they come into this one relatively healthy. Safety Kurt Coleman (hamstring), linebackers Corey Thompson (ankle) and Matt Milano (hamstring), along with corner Kevin Johnson (neck) and wide receiver Duke Williams (shoulder) are questionable.

Eagles vs. Bills Odds

Here are the current Eagles-Bills betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 9:00 a.m. Sunday morning:

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles      +2.5 (-110)     +105   O 40.5 (-110)
Bills      -2.5 (-110)     -125   U 40.5 (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +2.5 (-106)   +120   O 40.5 (-110)
Bills     -2.5 (-114)   -136   U 40.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +2.5 (-120)    +112   O 41.5 (-105)
Bills      -2.5 (+100)    -128   U 41.5 (-115)

 

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Why?

ELO and similar projection models aren’t a perfect science, but it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.

As for today’s game, the ELO projection model has the Bills favored by 2.5 points and with a 58% win probability. With Buffalo currently favored by 2.5 points, there’s no additional value on either side.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FOX Bet’s -125 moneyline odds on the Bills is 55.6%, which means the price on Buffalo is slightly cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests it should be.

As for the Eagles, the implied win probability of their +105 moneyline odds at FOX Bet is 48.8%, meaning they are a bit overpriced based on the ELO projection.

Eagles vs. Bills Player Prop Bets

We already told you that FOX Bet is offering 10 different odds boosts for the Eagles-Bills game, but here are two plays that we think are worth a closer look:

Zach Ertz to have 8+ receptions and Eagles to win +425 (boosted from +380)

Ertz has only pulled in eight receptions once this season and is coming off back-to-back poor games. Still, he remains the Eagles’ best pass-catching threat and with poor conditions expected to limit deeper routes, something the Eagles already struggle with, this could be the game where Ertz re-emerges as Wentz’s primary target. Keep in mind that he had at least eight catches in seven different regular season games a year ago.

Josh Allen to rush for 50+ yards and Bills to win +260 (boosted from +230)

Allen, who has rushed for 190 yards this season, will be the most mobile quarterback the Eagles have faced so far this season. He’s not the most accurate passer and with the wind looming as a major factor, I expect him to make some plays with his legs today. Keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers ran for 46 yards on five attempts back in the Eagles’ Week 4 win at Green Bay.

 

Eagles vs. Bills Betting Trends

There are some strong trends backing the Eagles over the Bills. All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

The Spread and Recent History

Road underdogs of 2.5 points or less that are coming off a loss of 25+ points and playing a team that is coming off a win are 3-1 ATS.

Road underdogs of 2.5 points or less that have lost and failed to cover in two straight games and are playing a team that is coming off a win are 3-1 ATS.

Road underdogs of 2.5 points or less that failed to cover in their previous two games and are playing a team that’s coming off a win are 13-8 ATS.

Road underdogs that failed to cover in its previous two games that are playing a team coming off a win are 94-66-6 ATS.

Good vs. Bad

Road underdogs of three points or less that have a winning percentage between 25-50% worse than their opponent are 34-16-4 ATS overall. When that range moves to 35-50% worse, the record becomes 15-4-1 ATS.

Road underdogs of three points or less coming off a double-digit loss against a team off a double-digit win are 18-11-2 ATS.

What Goes Down Must Go Up?

Underdogs of three points or less that failed to cover their previous two games by an average of 16 points or more are 13-3-1 ATS. When you change the parameters to 10 points or more, such teams are 32-12-2 ATS.

Eagles vs. Bills Betting Total Trends

The total in this game has dropped from 43.5 at mid-week to 40.5 this morning. That happened despite the fact that an Eagles defense which has allowed an average of 37.5 points per game over its last two outings will be on the field. Smells like an under spot, but before locking in your play, consider the following:

The over is 19-8 in Bills home games since the start of the 2016 season. It’s 11-4 in Bills home games when they are favored.

The over is 19-9 in Eagles road games since the start of the 2016 season. It’s 12-3 when they are a road underdog.

Where’s the Action Going?

The Eagles opened as a one-point underdog last Sunday night so the spread swelled before settling at Bills -2.5.

As of Sunday morning, 51% of total spread bets and 54% of the spread handle is on the Eagles across reporting markets, while 45% of totals bets and 32% of totals money is on the under.

Eagles vs. Bills Prediction

I can see a scenario in which the Eagles’ lack of depth at linebacker and defensive tackle shows up today, leading to a big day on the ground for Buffalo. That wouldn’t surprise me.

Really, from an X’s and O’s standpoint, I’m not sure what you can really feel good about with this Eagles team right now.

Still, I don’t see the Bills being able to exploit the Eagles’ biggest weakness–their inability to defend the pass–and I just wonder about this situational spot. From the outside, the Eagles appear to be a mess right now, but I also wonder if the noise of the past week will have a galvanizing effect today.

The Eagles have done a good job of overcoming adversity and playing the “nobody believes in us card” since Pederson took over, and they should have no problem selling themselves on that idea ahead of this one. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m taking the Eagles.

The Pick: Eagles (+2.5) over Bills