Riddle me this: Notre Dame is the No. 8 team in the country. Michigan, on the other hand, has been impossibly bad against Top 10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. And yet–yet–oddsmakers across the Indiana online sports betting landscape, among other markets, have basically handicapped this game as a toss up.

What gives?

 

The Fighting Irish are coming off a bye week after a solid 5-1 start, their lone blemish coming on the road at Georgia, and have covered the spread in four of their last five contests. Michigan, meanwhile, battled back from an early 21-0 deficit with a spirited second half effort a week ago at Penn State, but once again fell short against an elite opponent in an important game.

Now, the two teams will meet up on Saturday night under the lights in Ann Arbor.

It has been a split history in recent seasons between these two teams. Notre Dame got the best of Michigan last September in South Bend with a 24-17 win. Notre Dame has won three of the previous five meetings between these two teams, while Michigan has won 6 of the last 10 matchups, including the last four played in Ann Arbor. In fact, the home team has won eight of the previous nine meetings when these two squads get together.

Notably, tonight marks the first time this rivalry game will be played after the month of September in 76 years as Notre Dame will look to keep its slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, while Michigan will look to finally put an end to its big-game woes and score Harbaugh a much-needed win in front of a national audience.

Which team will get it done? Let’s get into it with our Notre Dame vs. Michigan betting preview that is loaded with need-to-know info, including odds, picks, trends and predictions.

How to Bet on Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Indiana

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If you’re in the state of Indiana, you now have two great online wagering options. DraftKings Sportsbook Indianais our preferred choice with its first-bet match of up to $200. Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook is now also live and offering a $500 risk-free first bet.

Pennsylvania

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If you’re in the state of Pennsylvania, be sure to check out our comprehensive rundown of PA online sportsbooks to find all of the best welcome offers, big odds boosts and betting promos.

FOX Bet PA leads the way with its creative and enticing daily bet boosts in addition to its usual $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here.

FOX Bet is running a parlay odds boost that includes action on this game with Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 Super Boost. This week’s bet is a three-leg parlay on Michigan (+1) , LSU (-10.5), and Wisconsin (+14). The payout has been boosted from +600 to +650. Strong.

New Jersey

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If you’re over in New Jersey, be sure to checkout our NJ online sports betting that’s loaded with comprehensive sportsbook reviews, welcome promos, and bonus offers.

How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Date: Saturday, October 26

Time: 7:30 p.m. EST

Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, MI)

Network: ABC

Announcers:Chris Fowler (play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (color), Maria Taylor (sideline)

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Weather

It’s always a good idea to check the game conditions before locking in a play, and the conditions could be a major factor tonight.

Partly cloudy skies on Saturday morning in Ann Arbor will give way to cloud cover and a steady rain by mid-afternoon. Currently, rain is expected throughout the game along with winds reaching up to 18 mph. The weather conditions could create a slippery track on the Big House Turf at Michigan Stadium, while the winds could impact each team’s kicking game.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Odds

Here are the current Notre Dame vs. Michigan betting odds as of 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame      +1 (-120)   -106   O 50.5 (-110)
Michigan     -1 (-103)   -115   U 50.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame       OFF   -110   O 49 (-110)
Michigan       OFF   -110   U 49 (-110)

 

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Notre Dame      0 (-110)     -110   O 49.5 (-110)
Michigan       0 (-110)     -110   U 49.5 (-110)

Win Probability

With the sportsbooks basically telling us this game is a toss up, let’s look at this one from a different angle by using ESPN’s FPI model.

Such projection models aren’t always accurate predictors of an event’s outcome, but it’s worth a look to compare the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source in order to find out if there’s potentially some betting value on the board. If there exists a pronounced disparity between the two numbers, there could be an opportunity to exploit a certain betting angle.

ESPN’s FPI index gives Notre Dame a 62 % win probability in this game.

So what?

In relation to the Fighting Irish’s FPI win probability, the -110 moneyline odds (52.4% implied win probability) at FanDuel represent tremendous moneyline value on the visitor.

As for Michigan, there’s no value on the Wolverines at -110 moneyline odds (52.4% implied win probability) when stacked against the FPI projection.

Recommended Bets

In addition to the aforementioned Cowherd-branded parlay boost, FOX Bet is offering seven bet boosts for Notre Dame vs. Michigan. Here’s a sampling:

  • Michigan to score first (-110)
  • Notre Dame to score first (-110)
  • Any defensive or special teams TD (+175)
  • Notre Dame -1.5 and Under 52.5 (+270)
  • Michigan +1.5 and Under 52.5 (+230)

I’d take a long look at the side/total parlay option that includes a play on the UNDER at 52.5. Given the current market, that deal gives bettors anywhere between 2 and 3.5 points of betting value.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Matchup to Watch

There’s lots of ways to look at this game. The coaching matchup, the defenses, the weather, are among many talkings point, but my focus is on the quarterbacks.

Shea Patterson vs. Ian Book

Patterson had an admirable performance in the second half last week at Penn State, and his overall numbers are pretty solid (1,522 yards, 9 touchdowns 4 INT). I guess a case could be made that perhaps the Michigan offense has turned a corner in recent weeks, but I don’t trust Patterson. He’s completing only 53% of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions against ranked opponents this season. I’m just not sure how enthusiastic I am about the idea of backing him against a Notre Dame defense that has racked up 18 sacks and forced 14 turnovers thus far, particularly when he’s prone to make mistakes such as this one:

That pick was a killer for Michigan because it put them in what ultimately proved to be an insurmountable 21-0 hole.

In a game that figures to be tightly played, I have the give the nod to Notre Dame QB Ian Book (1,419 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 2 INT). Book is more careful with the football and has been more efficient this season.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Betting Trends

Note: These trends were compiled when Notre Dame was a one-point favorite. Market volatility currently has Notre Dame anywhere between a one-point favorite and one-point underdog.

Why Backing Notre Dame is a Good Bet

Jim Harbaugh Problems

There’s no other way to say it. There are some big red flag trends out there when it comes to backing a Jim Harbaugh Michigan team:

  • After last week’s loss at Penn State, Michigan is 1-10 vs. AP Top 10 teams under Harbaugh.
  • Harbaugh’s Michigan teams are only 4-8 ATS in night games.
  • Harbaugh’s Michigan teams are 3-5 ATS as an underdog and are 0-2 ATS when an underdog of three points or less (keep an eye on the market with this one).

Looking Up

Teams ranked between No. 19 and No. 25 against Top 10 teams are only 59-82-3 ATS overall and 22-29-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Teams ranked No. 19-25 against Top 10 teams as a dog of three points or less are 8-11-2 ATS.

Notre Dame Has Been Good as a Short Favorite

The Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS when a favorite of three points or less since the 2008 season and 2-1 ATS as a favorite of three or less under Brian Kelly.

Why Backing Michigan is a Good Bet

Kelly’s Struggles Against Ranked Teams on the Road

Much has been made of Jim Harbaugh’s struggles at Michigan against ranked opponents, but Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly has struggled on the road against ranked squads with a 1-3 ATS record.

Rest is Overrated?

History shows that Notre Dame’s bye week doesn’t matter–at least not in this situation. Ranked home teams not coming off the bye are 27-17-1 ATS against ranked teams coming off the bye. Now, if Michigan was on the road in this one, well, that would be a different story. Ranked teams without a bye going up against a rested ranked squad are only 14-25-1 ATS when on the road.

A Word on the Total

The weather is a definitely a concern tonight, but consider these two trends:

  • The over is 36-22-1 in all Michigan games coached by Harbaugh. It’s 22-13-1 in games coached by Harbaugh at home and 2-0 when Michigan is a home underdog.
  • The over is 8-4 at The Big House in games against Top 25 teams that are coached by Harbaugh and 4-1 when Michigan plays a Top 10 opponent.

I’m not sure that’s enough for me to lock in a play on the over tonight, but it’s not like a steady rain is going to cause a sloppy mess on Michigan Stadium’s FieldTurf. I’m leaning towards the over.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan Prediction

I have to level with you. I don’t like this game–at all–so I’m not going to sell this as some five-star lock of the week.

Michigan and head coach Jim Harbaugh have taken a ton of heat for their inability to knock off elite teams throughout his tenure, but here is Michigan–now a small favorite at some sportsbooks–with another opportunity to get it done. Home-field advantage has been critical in this series with the home team winning eight of the last nine meetings. Still, I trust Ian Book more than I trust Shea Patterson. Helping matters for Book is Notre Dame running back Tony Jones, who has amassed 409 rushing yards over his last three games. He’s eclipsed the 100-yard mark in each of those games and is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this season.

Ultimately, I’m going to take Notre Dame to eek out a road win and keep its long-shot College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: Notre Dame (Pick) Over Michigan