Not all games on the NFL schedule are created equal, and that’s why the NFL is giving you the 1-6 Washington Redskins vs. the 5-2 Minnesota Vikings tonight from U.S. Bank Stadium to kickoff the Week 8 slate.

Something tells me if the league’s schedule-makers could have a do-over on this one as a primetime pick, they would take it.

It’s the Case Keenum vs. Kirk Cousins Quarterback Swap Bowl!

Yeah, gotta be honest. That storyline doesn’t exactly do it for me.

Though the game may lack organic suspense with Minnesota expected to blow the doors off a hapless Redskins squad, you can still add plenty of intrigue to tonight’s action by taking advantage of some great odds boosts and betting promos across PA online sportsbooks. Just exactly where should your money go? Let’s take a look inside with our Redskins vs. Vikings betting preview to find out.

The heat was on Kirk Cousins after a miserable 16-6 Vikings loss at Chicago back in Week 4 in which the offense sputtered its way to only 222 total yards, but that ugly performance seems like forever ago.

In the three weeks since that loss, the Vikings have dropped an average of 36 points per game, as Cousins has thrown for 977 yards to go with 10 touchdowns and just a single interception.

Washington, meanwhile, can only hope for a similar offensive revival after a 9-0 loss to the 49ers at a rain-soaked FedEx Field last Sunday in which its meager offense managed only 154 total yards (3.8 yards per play). Quarterback Case Keenum completed 9 of just 12 pass attempts for 77 yards.

I don’t know about you, but I’m FIRED UP to watch these guys in action tonight.

Will it be the Vikings covering a monster spread, or will the Redskins hang around and unexpectedly make it a competitive game? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Redskins vs. Vikings

Pennsylvania

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There are plenty of odds boosts, excellent betting promos, and sign-up bonuses to be had out there as Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off tonight. As always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market’s best deals.

We strongly recommend FOX Bet PA because of its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less.

New Jersey

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For those of you in the state of New Jersey, our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is loaded with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses is a must-see.

Indiana

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FanDuel Sportsbook launched in Indiana this week, giving the Indiana online sports betting market another competitor to join top option DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana. DraftKings Sportsbook IN is offering a generous $200 first-bet match available to new users right here.

 

How to Watch Redskins vs. Vikings

  • Date: Thursday, October 24
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
  • Network: FOX
  • Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink (sideline)
  • Radio: The Team 980 and WMAL 105.9 FM (Washington), KFAN 100.3 FM (Twin Cities)

 

Redskins vs. Vikings Weather

There’s no doubt that matchups and situational trends matter most, but placing a bet on a game without checking the weather report is just irresponsible–usually, that is.

U.S. Bank Stadium is an enclosed dome, so uncomfortable outdoor temperatures in Minneapolis tonight that are expected to be in the upper 30s at kickoff won’t be an issue.

Redskins vs. Vikings Odds

Here are the current Redskins-Vikings betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 11:00 a.m. Thursday morning:

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Redskins     +17 (-110)      +900   O 42.5 (-110)
Vikings      -17 (-110)     -1600   U 42.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Redskins     +16.5 (-106)   +800   O 42 (-110)
Vikings     -16.5 (-115)   -1115   U 42 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Redskins     +16.5 (-105)   +800   O 41.5 (-120)
Vikings     -16.5 (-115)   -1200   U 41.5 (+100)

 

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Why?

ELO and similar projection models aren’t a perfect science, but it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.

As for tonight’s game, the ELO projection model has the Vikings favored by 14 points and with an 88% win probability. With Minnesota currently favored between 16.5 and 17 points, ELO suggests there is as much as three points of betting value on the Redskins. It’s not too hard to believe this spread may be inflated because, I mean, let’s be honest here–who on earth wants to bet on the Redskins tonight?

Anyway, the implied win probability of FanDuel’s -1200 moneyline odds is 92.3%, which means that the moneyline price is more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-733 would be in line with an 88% win probability).

As for the Redskins, the implied win probability of their +800 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 11.1%, meaning their moneyline market provides some ever so slight value.

Recommended Bets

FOX Bet excels at incorporating the FOX Sports brand and the network’s talent into its betting app. Cousin Sal’s Custom Sal’s Money Back Special has been a popular Thursday night promo, and this week’s guaranteed money-back offer is on the Redskins to commit two-plus turnovers and the Vikings to win at -120 odds.

Some quick analysis on this two-part play:

  1. Minnesota is a virtual lock to win tonight. Since the start of the 2003 season, NFL teams that are favored by 14 points or more are 110-7 straight up. Teams that are favored by 15 points or more are 57-1 straight up. And teams that are favored by 17 points or more are 16-0 straight up.
  2. As for the turnover component, Washington has committed 12 of them (eight interceptions, four fumbles) through seven games (1.71 turnovers per game), while Minnesota has forced 11 turnovers (seven interceptions, four fumble recoveries) through seven games (1.6 turnovers forced per game).

As you can see above, Washington isn’t overly sloppy with the ball, while Minnesota hasn’t been outstanding in terms of forcing turnovers–probably because of a mediocre pass rush that has produced only 12 sacks thus far.

That being said, if the Vikings offense jumps out to an early lead and puts pressure on Keenum to throw the football, the probability of the Redskins being forced into making aggressive errors will rise. I like this prop play, and with a money-back guarantee attached to it, there’s every reason to take a shot on it.

Also of note, FOX Bet is offering three different bet bosts on Redskins-Vikings, including:

  • Kirk Cousins 3+ passing TDs at +210 odds
  • Vikings -14.5, Kirk Cousins 250+ pass yards, Stefon Diggs 85+ receiving yards and Vikings 3+ TD at +400 odds
  • Dalvin Cook to score 3+ TDs at +900

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering bet protection on the first player to score a TD prop. Just bet on which player will score the game’s first touchdown and get protected with your money back if your player doesn’t score first but goes on to score later . Bets will be refunded up to $20.

My pick is on Dalvin Cook–for this reason, among others:

I have to roll with the Vikings to score first and with Adam Thielen’s six touchdowns out of the lineup tonight, Cook is poised to add to his eight touchdowns this season. It should be noted that all eight of his scores have come on the ground as he’s hasn’t scored on any of his 24 receptions to date.

Redskins vs. Vikings Betting Trends

Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Vikings is a Good Bet

Thursdays are for the Favorites

Favorites haven’t been great in Thursday games this season, but consider the following trends:

  • Favorites in non-division Thursday games played in October or later are 41-22-2 ATS.
  • All home favorites are 71-47-4 ATS in Thursday games.
  • Teams favored between 7.5 to 16.5 points are 35-17 ATS in Thursday games.
  • Teams favored between 10 to 16.5 points are 18-8 ATS on Thursdays.

The Vikings Have Been Dominant Under Mike Zimmer at Home

The Vikings are an outrageous 30-12-1 ATS under Zimmer at home and are 24-8-1 ATS at home as a favorite.

Why Backing the Redskins is a Good Bet

The Law of Averages

Here are two long-term system trends that support taking bad teams to cover against good teams after the first month of the season:

  • When one team has an ATS cover percentage of between 0-30% and their opponent has a cover percentage between 51-100%, those teams are 167-104-9 ATS (61.6%) in games played in Week 6 or later.
  • In games played in Week 5 or later, underdogs with a win percentage between .100 and .250 that are playing a team covering on average by three points or more are 85-40-5 ATS.

A Word on the Total

The Minnesota offense has been cooking lately, but Washington’s unit? Not so much. Still, with a relatively low total set in this one, I’m rolling with the over. Here are two reasons why:

The over is only 45-55-1 when one team is shutout in its previous game, but the over is 6-2 when the road team is coming off a shutout and the total is set between 41-43 points.

The over is 28-15 in games that close with a total of 33.5-44 points in non-division contests featuring a home team that’s gone over the total less than 55% of the time since the start of the 2018 season. This same trend applied over the long-term (dating back to ’03) is hitting at a nearly 60% rate.

Where’s the Action Going?

As of noon Thursday, 61% of spread bets and 59% of the spread handle backs the Vikings.

In terms of totals bets, 62% of bets are on the over and 61% of the money is on the over.

Redskins vs. Vikings Prediction

It’s time to make a Redskins vs. Vikings prediction.

Washington stinks. It’s pretty simple. They don’t win (1-6 SU), and they don’t do a much better job of covering (2-5 ATS). That being said, 16.5 is a BIG spread, and Minnesota will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen…but I still can’t do it. I can’t take the points.

Despite struggling this season, favorites have more often than not been the correct side in Thursday games–particularly as big favorites. Plus, the Vikings have been outstanding against the spread at home since Zimmer took over as head coach. I expect Cousins to stay hot and light up his former team, while helping his current one to its fourth straight victory.

Prediction: Vikings (-16.5) over Redskins/ OVER 42