It will be a battle between two of the nation’s Top 10 teams when No. 9 Penn State and No. 2 Ohio State do battle in Columbus on Saturday afternoon, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the point spread. The Buckeyes are currently an overwhelming favorite at PA online sportsbooks despite the fact that each of the last three meetings between these two teams were decided by a field goal or less. Do the Nittany Lions have any shot to pull off a major upset? Can they even cover the spread? Let’s get into it with our Penn State vs. Ohio State betting predictions and preview.
Despite Penn State’s success this season, it’s not hard to see why Ohio State is supposed to not only win this game but also win in convincing fashion. Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young (13.5 sacks) was a Heisman Trophy candidate prior to sitting out two games over concerns about potential NCAA rules violations and could be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He paces the nation’s top scoring defense (9.8 points per game), which alone would be a daunting task to overcome for any opponent, but Ohio State also possesses the nation’s top scoring offense (51.5 points per game).
Quarterback Justin Fields, who initially committed to Penn State coming out of high school, remains a Heisman contender and has some gaudy stats to pad his resume. Fields has thrown an astounding 31 touchdowns to just one interception this season and has also added 10 touchdowns on the ground. He has three receives with at least 400 yards and six touchdown receptions this year, while star running back J.K. Dobbins has amassed 1,289 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry.
That’s bad news for a suddenly vulnerable Penn State defense that had trouble limiting explosive plays at Minnesota two weeks ago and struggled at times last week to get off the field against an Indiana offense that was missing top playmaker Whop Philyor for much of the game.
All of that being said, a nearly 20-point underdog? That’s a lot of points and what is an almost unprecedented line in recent seasons. Dating back to 2005, only one Top 10 team–the 2013 Miami Hurricanes–has been a bigger underdog than Penn State is today. No. 7 Miami entered its matchup with No. 3 Florida State that season as a 21.5-point underdog and was blown out by a 41-14 margin.
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DraftKings Sportsbook PA, which went live earlier this month in Pennsylvania is offering new users in both states a generous $200 first-bet match available right here.
We also like FOX Bet PA because of its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab here.
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It’s going to be a cold and raw one in Columbus on Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the low 40s at kickoff under cloudy skies. Steady rain is forecasted to move into the area just before halftime and is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the game. Light NE winds will blow between 7-8 mph.
Note: Certainly, rain tends to depress scoring, though oddsmakers account for weather conditions when setting the total. We’ll have more on the Penn State vs. Ohio State over/under in a bit.
Here are the current Penn State vs. Ohio State betting odds at some of the top legal sportsbooks as of early Saturday morning:
Spread | Money | Total | |
Penn State | +18.5 (-110) | +750 | O 57.5 (-110) |
Ohio State | -18.5 (-110) | -1250 | U 57.5 (-110) |
Spread | Money | Total | |
Penn State | +19 (-110) | +650 | O 57.5 (+100) |
Ohio State | -19 (-110) | -900 | U 57.5 (-118) |
Market Watch: Man, check out these numbers. The total is steady at both DraftKings Sportsbook and FOX Bet, while there’s not too much variation in the current point spread, but how about that moneyline? If you’re looking to bet on Penn State to win outright, then DraftKings (+750) is the place to go. Meanwhile, if you’re looking to roll an Ohio State moneyline play into a parlay, FOX Bet has substantially better value (-900) on the Buckeyes moneyline.
With Ohio State a near 20-point favorite this afternoon, let’s look at this game from a different angle by using ESPN’s FPI model.
Simply put, we like to do this because we feel that it’s often worth a look to compare the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source in order to see if any betting value exists.
As for this game, ESPN’s FPI index gives Ohio State an overwhelming 83.9% win probability over Penn State.
In relation to the Buckeyes’ FPI win probability, the -1250 moneyline odds (92.6% implied win probability) at DraftKings Sportsbook mean that there is no value whatsoever there on the moneyline. Even FOX Bet’s substantially cheaper -900 offering (90% implied win probability) presents no value.
As for Penn State, there’s some slight moneyline value at +750 moneyline odds (11.8 % implied win probability) over at DraftKings when stacked against the FPI projection.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions have numerous key injury concerns this week.
The availability of wide receiver KJ Hamler remains unclear, though there is a growing sense that he will play.
Meanwhile, center Michal Menet is out this week. Menet has started all 10 games this season and will be missed against a ferocious Ohio State defensive front.
Finally, running back Noah Cain hasn’t played since Penn State’s Oct. 26 win over Michigan State. The freshman running back dressed and went through pregame warmups two weeks ago at Minnesota, but has yet to return to game action. Earlier this week, Penn State head coach James Franklin said Cain will be a game-time decision.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are getting healthy at just the right time. Defensive end Jonathon Cooper, linebacker Baron Browning, cornerback Damon Arnette, and WR Austin Mack each sat out last week against Rutgers but are expected to play this week.
FOX Bet is all over this game.
New users can cash in on a +200 payout if Penn State simply scores a touchdown. That’s it. One touchdown triples your money.
Meanwhile, Penn State is also a part of Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 Bet Boost, which includes: Penn State (+19), Indiana (+9.5), USC (-14). This three-leg parlay has been boosted from +600 to +650. But wait, there’s more!
FOX Bet has eight bet boosts for this game, including:
You can take advantage of these offers right here.
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they are boosting Penn State, Minnesota and Utah to each win from +915 to +980.
Finally, FanDuel Sportsbook has a good deal for those that believe Penn State is poised to pull off the big upset today. Pregame moneyline bettors there can take advantage of Close Loss Insurance by getting a $50 refund if your team loses by six points or less.
Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2005 season, unless otherwise noted.
Penn State has some difficult historical trends to overcome this week in relation to this massive point spread:
Penn State is also just 2-6 ATS and SU against Top 25 teams on the road under Franklin. They are also 1-4 ATS against Top 10 teams and 0-3 ATS against Top 5 opponents.
Penn State is also 0-7 ATS in its last seven November games against Top 25 opponents.
Crazy state here–the over is 16-1 in Penn State’s last 17 day games against Top 25 teams, and it’s 6-3 ATS in November and December when two Top 10 Big Ten teams square off.
Still, I wanted to look at how enormous point spreads between two elite teams impacted the total:
As of 8 a.m. Saturday morning, 60% of spread bets and 64% of spread money backs Ohio State, while 74% of bets and 77% of the money is on the over.
Let’s start with the total. While that 16-1 over run Penn State is on when playing ranked opponents during the day is pretty wild, I like the under in this game. Historically speaking, when two ranked teams play with massive point spreads, the under has been a successful play. I think the absence of Penn State center Michal Menet is a huge factor. Hostile environment, elite defensive line, potentially wet conditions. That’s not a good mix.
As for the side, I don’t see any way Penn State wins. Though I’m extremely hesitant to lay 19 points in a game like this, I can’t get over how substantial the spread is given the last three contests between these teams have gone down to the wire. I also can’t look past the incredibly poor track record of Top 10 teams as huge underdogs, so I’m going to lay the points and back the Buckeyes.
Note: If you’re looking to bet on Ohio State, but would like to eliminate the large point spread from the equation while also avoiding expensive moneyline prices, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the Buckeyes to win outright with the over and the Buckeyes to win outright with the under at +104 odds.
Prediction: Ohio State (-19) over Penn State and Under 57.5 points