I know the Eagles can’t cover anybody. I know they gave up 38 points to the Steelers a week ago in a game that featured 67 combined points. It’s true.
I’m still on the under this week. I’m on it hard. And I’m on it for a few reasons.
The latest Eagles-Ravens odds show that the total has crept up from 46.5 points earlier in the week to 47.5 points at the time this post was published. Bettors are crushing the over at both DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook , and I’m glad to see it — I’ll roll with a fade against public money all day long.
But more importantly, the contextual factors and trend data both overwhelmingly suggest Eagles-Ravens is going under on Sunday afternoon.
Eagles-Ravens Trends Point to Under
I could say something like “Doug Pederson teams usually hit the under at home,” and that would be true, but that statement doesn’t do the fact proper justice.
Check it out:
Since 2003, a span of 17+ seasons, no home head coach has been more profitable with under plays than Doug Pederson.
A look at the top five “home unders” coaches:
- Doug Pederson (24-10, $1,252)
- Anthony Lynn (19-7, $1,091)
- Romeo Crennel (27-15-1, $1,045)
- Chuck Pagano (27-16, $967)
- John Harbaugh (55-44, $841)
Interestingly, Pederson has been the second-most profitable road head coach betting the over at 25-10 ($1,396). Go figure.
But this game is at Lincoln Financial Field, and since it is, let’s look a little closer at some other trends for Pederson-coached teams that scream under:
- The under is 15-7 in 1 p.m. home games.
- The under is 7-2 in non-conference home games.
- The under is 15-6 when the Eagles are coming off an over in the previous game (last week went way over).
- The under is 7-1 when the Eagles are a home underdog. They are a massive underdog this week.
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Matchups Matter, Too
Cool trends, right?
I know some bettors don’t care about the historical numbers, and that’s cool. I get it. After all, you can just say “hit the under” because it usually happens when the Eagles play home under Pederson, but it also hasn’t happened 10 times, including once already this season.
Context and matchups play a role, too, and these factors also seem to favor a play on this game staying below the total.
Despite improved performance last week, Carson Wentz is still the owner of the league’s 25th best Total QBR. This week, he gets to deal with a Baltimore defense that grades out as the NFL’s No. 3 defense, per DVOA. Perhaps even more concerning is that the Eagles will be without four projected offensive lineman against a relentless Baltimore front seven that generated seven sacks against Cincinnati in Week 5.
I’m as excited about Travis Fulgham as anyone, but it’s hard to imagine another game resembling his 10-catch, 151-yard breakout performance against the Steelers. The Eagles simply just don’t have enough offensive firepower to consistently score into the high 20s week in and week out. I expect to be reminded of this reality once again on Sunday.
It has been a mixed bag for the Eagles defense. Run-stopping has remained strong, even as the pass defense struggles.
The good news for Philly this week is that Lamar Jackson is currently leading the NFL’s No. 31 passing offense, one averaging just 178.8 yards per game. What I’m getting at here is that the Baltimore offense shouldn’t be able to exploit the weaknesses of the Philadelphia defense.
Eagles vs. Ravens Prediction
I come back to four things:
- Crazy trends pointing to the under
- The Eagles’ inability to matchup with the Ravens’ defense
- The Ravens’ offense shouldn’t totally exploit the Eagles’ defense
- The public is all over…the over
I’m taking under 47.5 points.
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