I can’t blame you if Zach Ertz doesn’t jump out as the guy to back with your Eagles-Ravens player prop picks this morning.
He was brutal last week, and he’s been brutal pretty much all season. The numbers are ugly.
Ertz is coming off a game in which he had just one catch for six yards against Pittsburgh. He has just five total catches for 15 yards in his last two games. He’s recorded less than 20 receiving yards three times in five games, and he’s caught just 20 of 35 total targets this season.
Believe it or not, these are actually some of the reasons I’m turning to Ertz this week with my Eagles prop picks.
Eagles-Ravens Props: Take Ertz to Go Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
We’ll get into the numbers on why I’m rolling with such a risky play in a minute, but the idea originated with some “something’s gotta give/contrarian/he-doesn’t-suck-this-bad” logic. From there, the deeper I went, the more sense it made.
Beyond the Box Score
As hard as it might be, you have to look beyond Ertz’s game log because the reality is that Ertz has eclipsed 42.5 yards just once this season. He is averaging just 29 yards per game.
The good news is that Ertz is still averaging seven targets per contest, and though the Eagles are dealing with an elite Ravens defense today, tight ends have found some success against this unit in the early going.
Opposing tight ends are averaging 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches, and 53 receiving yards per game against the Ravens defense through five weeks. While the numbers aren’t eye-popping, they are efficient. And in three of those games, a single tight end recorded at least 50 yards receiving:
- Week 1: David Njoku (50 yards)
- Week 2: Jordan Akens (55 yards)
- Week 3: Travis Kelce (87 yards)
Eagles-Ravens Odds Suggest Opportunities
The Eagles are nearly a double-digit home underdog today (the last time the Eagles were a double-digit underdog was on October 31, 1993), and oddsmakers clearly expect Baltimore to control the football game. If it unfolds as anticipated, the Eagles will be spending the afternoon playing from behind, which should provide Ertz with added opportunities to exceed the total.
There Are Yards to Be Had
The Ravens have the league’s best scoring defense, but they’re not an impenetrable unit. In fact, Baltimore is just 18th in pass defense, allowing 243 yards per game. That’s actually just behind the Eagles’ 241 yards allowed per game.
Someone Has to Catch the Ball
Maybe you have Travis Fulgham going for 10 catches and 151 yards again, but I don’t. The Ravens are talented and well-coached, and even if Fulgham has a solid day, the thought here is that Doug Pederson knows he needs to get Ertz re-engaged in this offense. With DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Goedert all out again, this is a good week to do it.
Eagles-Ravens Prop Picks
I’m taking Ertz to go over 42.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get it here .
I’m also intrigued by Saturday’s news that Ravens nose tackle Brandon Williams will miss the game after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Williams is an elite run stopper–can the Eagles take advantage of his absence? Will Pederson even try?
Wow, just saw Brandon Williams is out for the Ravens tomorrow. That could matter… pic.twitter.com/kbgYpzObof
— Bob Wankel (@BobWankelCB) October 17, 2020
It might with worth a play on Miles Sanders to eclipse 59.5 yards at FOX BET, particularly because all new users can bet $1 on any Eagles-Ravens market and get $50 free, regardless if the bet wins or loses. In other words, it’s a no-brainer.