The Eagles and Browns go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon in a game that features two total frauds. At 3-5-1, the first-place Eagles are a complete sham, while the 6-3 Browns have grossly outperformed their mediocre statistics. Though Cleveland sports the far superior record and has home-field advantage in this Week 11 matchup, our Eagles vs. Browns pick and prediction isn’t quite so simple.
A look at the current Eagles vs. Browns line shows that oddsmakers aren’t quite sure about what to make of either team.
There are many questions in play ahead of this one:
- Are the Eagles really, truly this bad (probably!)?
- Are the Browns the team that impressively took apart the Colts in mid-October, or are they the one that has limped to 10 points or less in three of their last four games?
- And, of course, how will COVID-19 and Cleveland’s loss of star defensive end Myles Garrett factor into the mix?
Let’s get into all of it with our Eagles vs. Browns picks and score prediction.
Eagles vs. Browns Week 11 Odds
Here are the current Eagles vs. Browns odds at some of the best PA online sportsbooks.
Best Eagles-Browns Odds by Sportsbook
|Eagles||+3 (-118)||+135||47.5 (-110)|
|Browns||-3 (-104)||-152||47.5 (-110)|
Eagles vs. Browns Line Analysis
A look at the odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook show oddsmakers essentially view this game as a toss-up. That’s interesting, particularly since Cleveland is off to a 6-3 start.
It’s true that the public generally likes to back the Eagles, but after last week’s listless loss to the Giants, any lingering positive illusions about Doug Pederson’s team were shattered. What we have here is an obviously crappy team that has been widely mocked all season playing a 6-3 team on the road, and yet, the obviously crappy/widely mocked team is only a three-point underdog.
Eagles vs. Browns Betting Preview
The Eagles Stink
If you have read our game previews in recent weeks, we’ve spent a great deal of time detailing the Eagles’ offensive woes. I don’t feel the need to rehash the gruesome statistics, but almost every traditional and advanced metric suggests that this is both an inefficient and impotent offense.
Last week, its futility was on full display when the Eagles failed to convert any of their nine third-down attempts. It had been 16 years since the Eagles played a game without a single third-down conversion.
We will see if they can achieve the miraculous this Sunday against the Browns’ No. 29 ranked third-down defense, one that has yielded a 48.7% conversion rate so far this season.
The Browns’ One-Dimensional Attack
If you’re looking for the SparkNotes version on the Browns, this is a team that is built around running the football. They are the NFL’s No. 3 team in run play percentage (51%), yards per rush (5.1), and rushing yards per game (159).
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, the Browns are outstanding at running the football – and they need to be outstanding at running the football. That’s because they are terrible at throwing it. This has been particularly true in the two games since Odell Beckham Jr. was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Baker Mayfield leads a passing attack that has completed a miserable 61.3% of its attempts (No. 29) and has produced just 188.8 passing yards per game (No. 30).
Despite the rough numbers, Cleveland’s offense still outperforms Philadelphia’s in almost all major categories. This holds up in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, too, as the Browns (No. 17) hold an advantage over the Eagles (No. 28).
Myles Garrett Is Out
COVID-19 will have a huge impact on this contest as star defensive end Myles Garrett is out. That’s particularly problematic for a suspect Browns pass defense that will now be missing the player responsible for 9.5 of its 22 sacks this season (43.2%).
Seumalo to Return
Don’t overlook the expected return of Isaac Seumalo. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson told reporters Friday that he expects Seumalo at left guard on Sunday. He should provide a big upgrade over Sua Opeta.
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Eagles vs. Browns Betting Trends
Reasons to Play the Eagles
Believe it or not, bad teams as road underdogs tend to be good bets later in the season. Why? Because oddsmakers account for bettors’ tendencies to back the better team, thus creating value:
- Road underdogs that have won between 30-37% of their games and are coming off a loss are 45-32-4 ATS.
- Road underdogs that have won less than 40% of their games are 47-34-1 ATS in November non-conference contests.
They also tend to be good bets off of big losses:
- Road underdogs that have won between 30-37% of their games and are coming off a double-digit loss are 23-16-2 ATS.
The Browns are currently only favored by three points, which also bodes well for the Eagles:
- Road underdogs of four points or less that have won between 25-40% of their games and are coming off a loss of at least 10 points are 6-1 ATS in November against teams that have won between 51-70% of their games.
- Underdogs on the road of four points or less that have won 25-40% of their games and are coming off of a 10+ point loss are 14-6-2 ATS in November.
- Road underdogs that have won 40% or less of their games and are playing a team over .500 have gone 25-17-1 ATS ATS in non-conference games in November.
One other thing — betting on Baker Mayfield as a favorite? Historically speaking, that’s a bad idea.
Mayfield is just 7-11-1 ATS as favorite. Since Mayfield became the starter, the Browns are only 6-7 SU and 3-9-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points.
Reasons to Play the Browns
Home favorites of 3-4 points that have won at least 66% of their games that play a sub .500 team coming off a loss are 10-3-1 ATS in November or later.
The Eagles are 7-10 ATS in Carson Wentz’s starts as a road underdog and 5-6 ATS as a road underdog of four points or less.
Eagles vs. Browns Over/Under Trends
The Eagles and Giants played to an under by 1/2 point last week because Doug Pederson inexplicably went for two down 21-17. Still, the over has been the right play in Pederson-coached road games:
- The over is 25-11 overall in Eagles regular season road games.
- The over is 16-4 in Eagles road games under Pederson following an under in the previous game.
That being said, there’s plenty of situational data that supports the under this week:
- The under is 30-23-2 in non-conference games with a total set between 47.5-49 points.
- The under 10-5 when the road team has gone under three straight games and the home team has gone under in two straight games with a total set at 47+ points.
- When both teams have gone under in at least two consecutive and the total is set at 47+ points, the under is 35-21-1 in November or later and 24-14-1 when the total is set between 47-49 points.
- The under is 72-52-2 when the home team scored 20 points or less in its previous game and the total is between 47-49 in November or later. It’s 35-21 in November.
- When the home team scored 10 points or less in its previous game and the total is between 47-49 in November or later, the under is 20-9-1.
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Eagles vs. Browns Prediction
Look, bet on this one at your own risk. Above, I laid out several situational trends that show why the Eagles are probably the right side. A suspect spread, a Browns team that’s not as good as its record indicates, and situational trends all point to the Eagles this week.
Cool story here — did you know that Cleveland’s point differential is worse than that of the 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers? It’s true. The Browns (-28) have a worse differential than the Chargers (-19) and have the Eagles (-29) beat by just a single point.
Oh yeah, and Cleveland’s only dominant player on a suspect defense is out.
The only problem is that, you know, you have to bet on the Eagles.
Everything is hard for this team. Moving the football is hard. Playing complimentary football is hard. Kicking extra points is hard. Betting on them? Nearly impossible.
Every week, right around Friday, I talk myself into the idea that the worst of the Eagles’ season is in the rearview mirror. And every week, right around the second quarter, I’m reminded that the Eagles are getting worse. They’re wretched in almost every way. And yet…
Eagles vs. Browns Pick
Ultimately, I’d like to think that I’m not betting on the Eagles, I’m betting against the Browns.
Eagles +3 Over Browns