Eagles vs. Giants Pick, Prediction: Wentz Rebounds, Expect Points

eagles giants odds pick prediction

This week’s Eagles vs. Giants pick and prediction piece takes a closer look at what to expect from two teams sporting a combined 5-11-1 record that, somehow, meet with major postseason implications on the line.

Indeed, the Giants’ victory over Washington last Sunday that pushed them to *checks notes* 2-7 has them suddenly very much alive in the NFC East. With a win this week, they would jump to second place in the NFC East and position themselves very much within striking distance of the Eagles.

Bet just $1 at FOX Bet on the Eagles to score at least once against the Giants this Sunday to win $50. PA bettors can get this offer by clicking right here . NJ bettors can get it here . Read more about the offer here.

That doesn’t figure to be an easy task, even against a lackluster 3-4-1 Eagles team that has inspired very little confidence to this point, a team that played absolutely dreadful football in its Week 8 win over the Cowboys. That’s because Philadelphia comes into this matchup both well-rested and healthier than it has been at any points this season. The Eagles should have the services of wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, running back Miles Sanders, and right tackle Lane Johnson.

Will the Giants pull off the minor home upset, or will the Eagles tighten their grip on the division lead? Let’s get break it all down with a look at Eagles vs. Giants odds, pick, and prediction.

 

Eagles vs. Giants Week 10 Odds

Here is the current Eagles vs. Giants odds at some PA online sportsbooks.

Best Eagles-Giants Odds by Sportsbook

 

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Eagles   -3 (-117) -175 44.5 (-110)
Giants  +3  (-105) +150 44.5 (-110)

Eagles vs. Giants Line Analysis

I guess if you’re an Eagles fan, you probably wanted to see this number be a little bit stronger, but can you blame oddsmakers at shops like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook? Some points to consider:

  1. Regardless of opponent, should the Eagles demand 4+ points of respect as a road team (or home team) right now?
  2. The Giants are a bad team. They are also a competitive team. I know, the latter claim is a weird thing to write about a 2-7 football team — one that is winless against every team but Washington — but at 6-3 ATS, the Giants are also one of the NFL’s best cover teams thus far. They took the Rams, Cowboys, Bucs, Bears, and, most notably, the Eagles to the limit in five of their losses. I know, I know. Many teams, including the Eagles, can speculate about being a play or two away from a better record. But I remain steadfast in my belief that a) the Giants aren’t good enough, and b) the Giants aren’t bad enough that this spread should be more than 3 to 3.5 points.

 

Eagles vs. Giants Betting Preview

The Eagles are perceived as the superior team in this contest, and that makes sense. For years, they have had the better team. They also currently possess the superior record. On paper, they have more talent, too.

But if you watch both the Eagles and Giants play week to week, it’s truly difficult to see discern much of a difference between the two squads. Neither team hasn’t been impressive, and that’s what makes selecting an Eagles vs. Giants pick so difficult.

In fact, the Eagles have been more aesthetically appealing in losses to the Steelers and Ravens than they were in wins over the Cowboys and Giants. Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-7 and getting participation trophies for “almosts.” The bar has been set so low in NEW YORK of all places that hard-fought losses featuring high-effort, low-talent football is viewed as a step in the right direction.

That said, the Giants (No. 25) actually outrank the Eagles (No. 28) in terms of Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Much of this is driven by special teams metrics in which the Giants (No. 3) hold a decisive advantage over the Eagles (No. 20).

The Giants (No. 25) also outperform the Eagles on offense (No. 30). However, Philadelphia (No. 11) does hold a defensive advantage over New York (No. 22).

Meanwhile, each team’s traditional offensive and deficiency statistics are fairly similar.

Offensively, the Eagles hold a points per game (23.2 to 18.7), points per play (0.35 to 0.30), score margin (-2.4 to -5.7), yards per game (330 to 298), and yards per play (5.0 to 4.9) edge.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles allow less yardage (340 to 360), less yards to per play (5.0 to 5.6) and are better at getting after the quarterback (9.15% to 6.34% of QB dropbacks).

So what gives?

 

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The equalizer is turnovers. The Giants have an even 0.0 turnover differential (No. 17) while the Eagles (No. 31) check in at -0.9, better than only the Cowboys (-1.4). Part of the equation is that the Giants defense has been exceptional in terms of interception rate (2.46% to the Eagles’ 1.08%). The other part is because Carson Wentz has somehow turned the ball over more than noted turnover-machine Daniel Jones.

In short, if Carson Wentz can protect the football, then the Eagles probably win the game. If he can’t, they’re not going to get away with it like they did against the Cowboys in Week 8.

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Eagles vs. Giants Betting Trends

Here’s a true story. I spend about an hour each week combing through a database to find interesting/relevant trends related to the Eagles’ upcoming game. I go into this process with an open-mind, though I typically expect to find trends that heavily favor one side over the other. This week, I expected the trends to favor the Giants ahead making this betting pick.

Why?

I look and see a relatively short line for a 2-7 Giants team that has been absolutely owned by the Eagles (a team with far more overall success) in recent seasons — one that the public believes stinks — and a field goal spread just strikes me as a bait line.

What I found, though, was quite the opposite. Maybe I’m missing something, but most of the situational trends I uncovered strongly support a play on the Eagles.

Betting Trends Favoring the Eagles

Road Division Favorites are Good Plays in November

  • Road favorites of 3-4 points are 31-17-3 ATS in November division games and 29-16-12 ATS when favored between 3-3.5 points.
  • Division road favorites of 3.5-4 points are 5-0-1 ATS in November when the opposing team is coming off of a win.
  • Road favorites in division games that won the previous head-to-head matchup are 57-33-4 ATS in November.
  • Road favorites of 3-4 points in November division games that won the previous head-to-head matchup are 7-3 ATS when favored by exactly 3.5 points.
  • Road favorites in November division contests are 15-9-3 ATS when both teams are coming off a win.

Daniel Jones Struggles As Home Dog

One other thing, as was the case in the Week 7 meeting between these teams, the Giants have been a great bet to cover as a road underdog with Daniel Jones at quarterback. They are not, however, nearly as successful as a home underdog:

  • Jones 8-1 ATS as a road underdog
  • Jones 1-6 ATS a home underdog

The Giants’ only cover in this spot came in the Giants’ 25-23 Week 8 loss to the Bucs.

Eagles’ Dominance

  • The Eagles are 17-3 straight up in division games as a favorite and 7-2 as a road favorite.
  • The over is 25-10 overall in Eagles road games and 9-4 in division road games coached by Doug Pederson.
  • And, of course, the Eagles are 8-1 against the Giants under Pederson. It’s been awhile for the Giants:

Eagles vs. Giants Over/Under Trends

If you have read these previews in the past, you know that I’m a big proponent of playing the over in Eagles road games. Simply put, the data is overwhelming:

  • The over is 25-10 overall in Eagles regular season road games and 9-4 in division road games coached by Doug Pederson.
  • The over is 16-3 in Eagles road games under Pederson following an under in the previous game and 5-0 in division games following an under in the previous game.
  • Also of note, the over is 22-15 in November division games when the total is set between 44-44.5 points. It’s 8-2 when exactly 44.5

This week, I also happen to like the setup. Carson Wentz is coming off of his worst game of the season, and though I’m not exactly the biggest Wentz believer, I like a bounce back effort from him following the bye week. I’m also encouraged by the aforementioned expected returns of Sanders, Johnson, and Jeffery, along with Dallas Goedert perhaps having more footing two weeks after his return from a prolonged absence.

I’m aware that counting on Jeffery in his first-game back following an 11-month process is a big ask, but then again, I’m not really asking for much. I don’t foresee a five-catch, 70-yard effort, but can he give better looks than, say, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside? Yeah, I think so. That helps.

Meanwhile, Jones played only his second career game without a turnover last week, and I think the Giants offense can do enough to produce 20-24 points in this contest. I can see this one scoring into the high 40s/low 50s.

 

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Eagles vs. Giants Prediction

Despite a fair share of close calls, the Eagles have dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons. Eventually, the law of averages will tip the other way, and the Giants will come out on top of one of these close calls. I just don’t think it’s going to happen this week.

Despite the Eagles’ flaws, they are well-rested, and they are getting healthier. They are also the more talented team — even if they have rarely played like it.

It all comes down Carson Wentz, who hasn’t played consistently well enough. With his offensive line solidified and his weapons returning to action, the excuses (and valid reasons for his struggles) are running out. He should be able to do enough to take advantage of a defense that plays hard but is by no means an elite unit.

I expect Wentz to play well in this spot and believe Jones will make enough plays against an Eagles defense to push this game over the total.

Eagles vs. Giants Pick

I like the Eagles to win a close one. If I can get Philly -3, I’m in for a small play. No thanks with the hook, though.

Either way, I’m turning my attention to the total for this one.

Eagles-Giants OVER 44.5 points

 

Bet just $1 at FOX Bet on the Eagles to score at least once against the Giants this Sunday to win $50. PA bettors can get this offer by clicking right here . NJ bettors can get it here . Read more about the offer here.

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