Eagles vs. Giants Prop Picks: Buying Low on Carson Wentz

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PHOTO CREDIT: ERIC HARTLINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

It’s a pivotal Week 10 tilt in the NFC East as the Eagles travel up the NJ Turnpike to take on the Giants this Sunday. Be sure to check out our full game odds and predictions, but now let’s dive into some Eagles vs. Giants player prop picks.

Back in August, I’m not sure I could have illustrated a path to a situation in which the Eagles would enter Week 10 atop the NFC East and Carson Wentz would hold the following rankings among quarterbacks:

  • QBR: 27th
  • Yards per attempt: 30th
  • Yards per game: 23rd
  • Interceptions thrown: 1st
  • Times sacked: 32nd
  • Touchdown passes: 19th

And these aren’t handpicked numbers that ignore some huge positives to fit an anti-Wentz narrative, unless you want to toss in his 202 rushing yards and five scores, which I guess we can do. Still, even the most fervent Wentz supporter must concede this is not the type of season expected of what many thought was one of the league’s most complete quarterbacks as recently as last season.

 

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Eagles-Giants Props

Simply stated, Wentz has not been good through eight games, and I don’t know what it says about me that his poor play is part of the reason I’m rolling with him on some Eagles vs. Giants prop picks this week.

Buying Low on Carson Wentz

Listen, there’s this narrative out there about how underrated the Giants defense has been this season. Not really. It is a unit that plays hard, but it is one that is particularly suspect against the pass. The numbers bear this out:

  • 25.1 completions per game (25th)
  • 69.54% completion percentage (29th)
  • 10.6 yards per completion (18th)
  • 5.6 yards per attempt (30th)
  • 265.2 passing yards allowed per game (25th)

Of course, the Giants’ pass defense issues are only part of the equation. Wentz has to hold up his end of the deal, something he absolutely did not do in Week 8 against the Cowboys. He completed just 15 of 27 passes for a putrid 123 yards in that contest while also tossing three utterly ridiculous interceptions. That effort has created quite a bit of social media, sports talk radio, and water cooler discussion over his longterm viability as the Eagles’ franchise quarterback.

In other words, any play on Wentz this week is the ultimate buy-low proposition. Blind loyalists aside, confidence has never been lower in the 27-year-old quarterback.

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Eagles vs. Giants Prop Picks

So, we have a vulnerable pass defense against a quarterback whose play has been erratic, at best, through eight games. I don’t know what the longterm future holds for Wentz and the Eagles, but for this week, I’m in on a bounce back effort.

Some Wentz plays I like against the Giants:

Wentz has only exceeded 23 completions once over his last five games, which happened to come in the Eagles’ 22-21 win over the Giants in Week 7 in which he completed 25 attempts. He’s also only exceeded 250 passing yards in only three of eight contests this season, but one of those games was his 359-yard effort in that first matchup.

Ultimately, there are three variables coming together that give me enough confidence to back him in this spot:

  1. The Giants’ pass defense vulnerabilities
  2. The Eagles are fresh off a bye week
  3. Health

I’ve already illustrated the Giants’ deficiencies against the pass, deficiencies Wentz exploited in a furious fourth quarter comeback in Week 7.

It is also noteworthy Wentz and the coaching staff have had a bye week to hit the reset button and make adjustments. If ever a player needed a break to clear his head, it’s this one.

However, the greatest factor of all is the Eagles’ improving health, particularly on the offensive side of the football.

The Eagles should have the services of right tackle Lane Johnson, running back Miles Sanders, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. Only Johnson played against the Giants in Week 7 and that was sparingly. The Eagles also didn’t have Jason Peters, Jalen Reagor, or Dallas Goedert in that first meeting. Goedert was rusty and/or quiet against the Cowboys in Week 8, but off the bye week, he should be far more active against the Giants.

This added talent should not only boost the Eagles’ explosiveness, but it should provide a jolt to the confidence of a shaken Wentz.

In short, if he’s going to rebound in the second half, it’s going to start on Sunday. Given these deflated markets, I’m buying low on Wentz this week.

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