The Phillies’ most recent road trip ended with a 9-1 thud in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon, but if you would’ve told me last Monday that they would manage a 4-3 record against two teams that had entered the week with a combined 30-14 home record, I would’ve signed up for that in a minute. While far from a flawless team, there’s plenty to feel good about when it comes to the Phillies right now as they return to Citizens Bank Park for a quick three-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Maybe you’re feeling so good that you want place a little wager over at DraftKings Sportsbook on the Phils to win the NL East. I could think of worse bets, but just know that you might not be getting a great deal.

It’s not that the Phils can’t or won’t win the division, it’s just that they’re currently a terrible value bet.

Phillies NL East odds

Smart people constantly get the most value out of their time and money. For instance, let’s use the Jersey Shore for reference. If you left around 2 p.m. yesterday, it’s not that you didn’t make it home. You did. It just probably took three to four hours of your weekend. If you left at 6 a.m. or waited until late last night, you probably shaved two hours off the trip. That’s maximizing your time. That’s value. Bettors do the same thing, looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies and pounce on value plays.

Here’s how that relates to the Phillies:


They currently sit atop the NL East by 1.5 games over the Atlanta Braves. In turn, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering them at -129 to win the division, which seems about right given their big-name talent and short division lead, but it’s not.

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Implied probability vs. actual probability

A -129 moneyline implies the Phils have a 56.3% chance to take the NL East, but the FanGraphs’ projection model isn’t nearly as bullish.

In fact, after the Braves’ 4-3 comeback win in St. Louis on Sunday night, they are now projected to win the division by FanGraphs with a 39.9% probability, while the Phillies check in just behind at 38.1%. In case you’re wondering, no other NL East team is even close. Sorry. The Nationals (11.8%), Mets (10.2%), and Marlins (0%) are each well behind. And no, FanGraphs doesn’t totally hate the Phillies, as it still gives them a strong 61.8% chance to reach the postseason.

As for the validity of the FanGraphs model, it’s formula isn’t based on current standings alone. Strength of schedule, team stats, ZiPS and Steamer projections, along with current standings are each variables in FanGraphs’ 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. It’s far from perfect, and not always correct, but there are multiple sport-specific variables in the lengthy equation. Of course, these current projections don’t take into account the Phillies’ deep pockets or the likelihood of the team adding to the starting rotation or bullpen. Throw Craig Kimbrel’s 13.9 K/9 into the mix and a reliable No. 2/3 starter and everything changes.

Other sportsbooks

The Phillies are only slightly better value at other sportsbooks:

PointsBet: -118 (54.13%)

FOX Bet: -120 (54.55%)

SugarHouse Sportsbook: -129 (same odds)

And worse odds:

FanDuel Sportsbook: (57.54%)

The real value

That said, the Braves are a healthy +210 to win the NL East at DraftKings, a moneyline suggesting only a 31.7% chance to win the division. If you have any believe in those FanGraphs’ projections, then a futures bet backing the Braves presents some value with a +8.2% difference between the implied moneyline probability and FanGraphs model. Conversely, a Phillies future wager with a -18.2% difference presents one of the worst values in all of baseball.

Other teams presenting opportunities for bettors using this same philosophy include the Cubs, Twins, and Yankees. Personally, I’m all over the Cubs at +140 to win the NL Central. FanGraphs currently gives them a 63.6% chance to win the division, well ahead of the Brewers at 19.2%.

H/T to reader Joe