The Eagles fell to 1-1 after suffering a gut-punch of a 24-20 loss late on the road in Atlanta last week. It was yet another crushing late-game defeat in what has become a developing pattern over the last two seasons. The truth is that no loss is good, but when the Eagles lose, they seem to do it in the most painful ways possible. Let’s see if they can bounce back and cover in our Eagles-Lions betting preview.
Anybody remember 4th and 16 on the road at Tennessee last season, or the overtime road loss in Dallas last December?
As for last week, the only thing worse than being an Eagles fan watching Nelson Agholor let the game quite literally slip through his fingers was watching him do it while also backing the Birds with your wallet at PA online sportsbooks.
Two weeks feels like forever ago with the borderline uncomfortable amounts of optimism about the 2019 Eagles now almost entirely replaced by concern and doubt over the team’s injury situation and early-game struggles.
Suddenly, the Eagles return home to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday afternoon in search of a much-needed win, and they’ll need to do it without the services of DeSean Jackson (and likely Alshon Jeffery) against a Detroit squad coming off an upset win at home over the Chargers.
Far from ideal.
Let’s run through what to expect, along with some predictions in our Eagles-Lions betting preview.
How to Bet on Eagles-Lions
The initial frenzy brought by the first two weeks of the NFL season may be over, but legal online sportsbooks continue to serve up big sign-up bonuses, risk-free bets, odds boosts, and other fun promotional offers this week.
As always, we strongly advise making sure that you are getting the best odds, friendliest spreads, and the most lucrative welcome offers by checking out multiple sportsbooks. With that said, let’s take a look at some of the market’s best current options:
FOX Bet has come out hot in PA, quickly emerging as one of the top betting options in the state. FOX Bet’s enticing $20 sign up bonus and $100 first bet match are only a minor part of the equation as the app’s user-friendly experience, creative promotions, and brand power have each contributed to its overall success. You can sign up here .
Another top option is FanDuel Sportsbook PA, which is offering a $500 risk-free bet and Close Loss Insurance on all Week 3 NFL games. Place a $50 moneyline bet, and if you lose, you will be issued up to $50 in site credit if your team loses by six points or less.
We strongly urger those of you in New Jersey to check out our must-see NJ online sports betting page for a thorough rundown of all the best promos and sign-up bonuses:
William Hill NJ is another top option. Take advantage of a free $50 when you place a $50 bet by signing up.
PointsBet is also offering a generous new promo–deposit $50, get $100, and it also offers cheap -105 point spread prices and has a fun Make it Rain promo that runs for all Eagles, Jets, and Giants games. Bettors get $6 in bonus cash for every touchdown scored by their team when making a $50 pre-game spread bet.
How to Watch Eagles-Lions
- Date: Sunday, September 22
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- Network: FOX
- Announcers: Thom Brennaman (play-by-play), Chris Spielman (analyst), and Shannon Spake (sideline)
- Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), 760 AM WJR (Detroit)
Here are the current Eagles-Lions betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks about 24 hours away from kickoff:
|Lions||+5 (-118)||+188||O 45 (-110)|
|Eagles||-5 (-110)||-225||U 45 (-118)|
|Lions||+5.5 (-110)||+210||O 45.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-5.5 (-110)||-245||U 45.5 (-110)|
|Lions||+5.5 (-114)||+195||O 45 (-110)|
|Eagles||-5.5 (-107)||-240||U 45 (-110)|
|Lions||+5.5 (-114)||+200||O 45 (-110)|
|Eagles||-5.5 (-107)||-235||U 45 (-110)|
As always, we like to take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it matches up with legal sportsbook odds in case there’s any potential value on the board.
FiveThirtyEight has the Eagles favored by 6 points and predicts them to win at a 70% rate. With the Eagles currently favored by five to six points at most sportsbooks, there may be a slight point spread value on the Eagles depending on market fluctuation over the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FOX Bet’s Eagles -225 moneyline odds, the current cheapest moneyline price at legal PA and NJ sportsbooks, is 69.2%, which is basically right in line with the ELO projection.
As for the Lions, the implied probability of their +210 moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is 32.3%, which means there’s no value on a Detroit moneyline play at that price.
By the time Zach Ertz came up inches short on fourth down late in last week’s loss to the Falcons, I didn’t know whether I should be impressed by the Eagles’ ability to overcome a slew of pregame injuries and yet another sluggish start to even make it a game, or exasperated by yet another infuriating loss in which they stumbled late.
It’s now Saturday, and I’m still not sure what to make of it.
One thing is for sure, Carson Wentz must start faster this week. While Wentz had a furious finish a week ago that featured several highlight reel plays, he was simply awful in the first half. I mean, what is this?
He completed only 6 of 16 first half pass attempts as the Eagles continued their troubling trend of slow starts. They yet again failed to score in the opening quarter, and this time the slow start bled into the second half.
The Eagles have to hope a week of practice (if you want to call it that) between Wentz, Mack Hollins, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and the rest of the Eagles’ first-team offense will help the team pick up where it left off late in Sunday night’s game against a Lions defense that yielded only 10 points to a typically high-powered Chargers offense a week ago.
Speaking of Detroit, while the Lions did score an upset win to shake off a disappointing Week 1 tie after blowing a second half lead in Arizona, they needed a lot of help to do it.
The Chargers, as they often do, completely shot themselves in the foot with a series of miscues. Los Angeles foolishly rolled the dice by allowing punter Ty Long to handle field goal duties as kicker Michael Badgley dealt with a groin injury. Long missed from 39 and 41 yards last week, and those misses could also help to explain why quarterback Philip Rivers took a shot at the end zone on 3rd and 19 from the 28-yard line down only a field goal:
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 15, 2019
Chargers running back Austin Ekeler’s goal line fumble also aided the loss in a game Los Angeles out-gained Detroit both on the ground and through the air. The Chargers were also better on third down and held an edge in time of possession in a loss that was completely on-brand.
If the Eagles don’t replicate those same self-destructive tendencies this week, they should find a way to win. Big if, I know.
In terms of the head-to-head offensive numbers, Detroit has an edge over Philadelphia in yards per play (5.9 to 5.0) and red zone scoring percentage (66.67% to 50.00%), but the Eagles hold a distinct advantage on third down conversions (57.14% to 35.71%).
Defensively, Detroit holds the edge in opponent yards per play (5.6 to 6.4), opponent points per play (0.257 to 0.429), opponent completion percentage (55.56% to 65.52%), and red zone scoring percentage (28.57% to 50.00%), while Philadelphia has the edge on third down stop percentage (34.78% to 42.86%).
The Lions’ edge in defensive efficiency is somewhat concerning, and it highlights the challenge the Eagles will face to move the football and finish drives without some of their primary offensive weapons.
Eagles-Lions Betting Trends
- Watch the line in this one, particularly if it gets back to the 6.5-7 range. Home favorites of at least 6.5 points against a team coming off a cover are 15-8 ATS and 3-0 ATS in September dating back to 2003.
- There have been four instances where a team doesn’t cover its first two games of the season and plays at home as a favorite of six or more points against an opponent coming off a cover in September. Those teams are 4-0 ATS.
- When teams that fail to cover its first two games of the season play a team coming off a cover at home, they are 8-4 ATS.
- Matthew Stafford is 2-7 ATS when he starts as an underdog of 7-10 points on the road and 4-9-1 ATS when an underdog of seven points or more. He’s 8-13-1 ATS as a road dog of six points or more.
- When the game total closes between 46-48 points, Stafford is 4-11-2 ATS on the road and 2-7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
- Carson Wentz is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite dating back to last season after starting his career 9-2 ATS as a home favorite.
- At 2-6 ATS, Doug Pederson has been the least profitable head coach as a home favorite since the start of last season.
You’re here for the Eagles-Lions prediction, so I’ll make one–reluctantly.
With a quick turnaround and a tough road game in Green Bay looming, this is about as close to a must-win situation as a team can face in Week 3, so they should be motivated, particularly on the heels of an excruciating loss. The above trends also tilt the scale in the Eagles’ favor, but there remain some concerns.
The Eagles have struggled since the start of last season as a home favorite, and the injuries to Jackson and Jeffery are enough to give me pause. I’ll take the Eagles to win, and while I could certainly see a cover, I’m not willing to lay the six points with a short-handed offense.
Note: You can grab the Eagles at +140 odds to win by 1-13 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Eagles 24, Lions 20