Eagles vs. Packers Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Raise your hand if you had the Eagles getting off to a 1-2 start ahead of a daunting Week 4 trip to Lambeau Field tonight.

If your hand is up, put it down, weirdo—but also, congratulations. You were wayyyy ahead of the curve on a confluence of events most people didn’t see coming. Hope you pounded the Eagles’ opponents at all of the PA online sportsbooks.

Injuries, turnovers, drops, and mental lapses have each plagued the Eagles throughout a sluggish and disappointing start that has included back-to-back exasperating and completely avoidable defeats. Now, Doug Pederson’s short-handed team will have to find a way to vanquish the undefeated Packers at Lambeau Field on a short week.

Perhaps a different setup will help change the Eagles’ fortunes this week because playing as the betting favorite hasn’t exactly worked out thus far, so maybe playing as an underdog for the first time this season will bring about a welcomed change.

As for Green Bay, favorite or underdog–it has not mattered as the Packers have raced out to a perfect 3-0 start, winning their opener as a road underdog in Week 1 at Chicago and then following that effort with back-to-back wins as a home favorite. The Packers, who have won five of their last six meetings with the Eagles, will have an opportunity on Thursday night to earn their first 4-0 start since the 2007 season.

Can the Eagles weather the storm and stabilize their surprisingly turbulent start to the season, or will the Packers stay perfect at the season’s quarter pole? Let’s get into it with our Eagles-Packers betting preview.

How to Bet on Eagles-Packers

Pennsylvania

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It looks like the PA online sportsbooks are setting up for a big Week 4 of the NFL season with some of their best and most aggressive offers to date ahead of the Eagles and Packers primetime tilt.

As usual, we offer a quick reminder to make sure that you are shopping at multiple sportsbooks to ensure that you are getting the best odds, friendliest spreads, and the most lucrative welcome offers.

Now, let’s take a look at this week’s top options.

FOX Bet is offering Carson Wentz to throw a touchdown at +100 odds.

This is in addition to their regular $20 free + $100 deposit match promo.

For what it’s worth (quite a bit, I think), Wentz has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 26 of his last 27 games dating back to the start of the 2017 season. I like those odds. You can get in on that offer by signing up here.

We also strongly recommend FanDuel Sportsbook PA, which continues to offer a $500 risk-free bet for new users this week and is offering an odds boost on Carson Wentz to throw for three touchdowns and the Eagles to win (boosted from +700 to +850).

New Jersey

If you’re in the state of New Jersey, we strongly urge you to check out our must-see NJ online sports betting page for a complete look at all of the best welcome and promo offers.

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FOX Bet is running their same offer in New Jersey. But it is a separate app which you can download here.

William Hill NJ is another top option. Take advantage of a free $50 when you place a $50 bet. William Hill NJ is also running their The First 6 promo for the Eagles-Packers game. Bet $10 on the first touchdown scorer, and if you win and your player scores again, get double your total winnings. If your player doesn’t find the end zone first but scores the game’s second touchdown, then you will get 50% cash back on your wager.

Finally, PointsBet has tons of great stuff tonight. They are still offering a deposit $50, get $100 welcome deal and have cheap -105 point spread prices for every NFL game.

How to Watch Eagles-Packers

• Date: Thursday, September 26
• Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI)
• Network: FOX, NFL Network
• Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink (sideline)
• Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), WTMJ 620 AM (Milwaukee)

Eagles-Packers Odds

Here are the current Eagles-Packers betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:00 a.m. Thursday morning.

FOX Bet

FanDuel Sportsbook

SugarHouse Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook

Win Probability

As we do every week with our betting previews, we like to include a look at how the implied win probability at the current legal sportsbooks stacks up with FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread and win probability projections.

ELO and other similar models aren’t an exact science, nor are they necessarily accurate predictors of a game’s outcome, but we think it’s a worthwhile exercise to compare the two sources in search of possible betting value.

Tonight, FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projection has the Packers favored by only three points and at a 61% win probability. With the Packers currently favored by four points at most local legal sportsbooks, the ELO measure indicates there is about one point of betting value on the Eagles, but it’s a big point as it crosses the magic betting number of three.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the Packers at -194 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 66%. That’s higher than their 61% ELO win probability. By this comparison, the Packers moneyline odds are a little bit juiced up.

As for the Eagles, the implied probability of their +166 moneyline odds is 37.6%. That win probability is pretty much synched up with ELO.

In short, the Eagles are a fair bet and may provide some value on the spread. The Packers are juiced up.

Betting Preview

These aren’t your slightly older big brother’s Green Bay Packers. At least not yet, anyway.

For years, the Packers were an offense-first team. Actually, they were an Aaron Rodgers-first team, and while the sure-fire future Hall of Fame quarterback is off to a stellar start through three games, it’s the Packers defense that is leading the way.

Green Bay’s offense enters tonight scoring just 19.3 points per game (24th overall) and averaging 286.7 yards per game (28th overall).

The Packers have struggled to establish the run game, averaging only 3.4 yards per rush (26th) and 89.3 rushing yards per game (24th), and the passing game has been less than prolific, too, averaging only 197.3 passing yards per game (27^th). That being said, Rodgers has still tossed four touchdown passes against zero interceptions and has a solid 96.5 quarterback rating.

Despite the absence of his typical gaudy statistics, Rodgers remains one of the game’s most dangerous passers, and the Eagles will have to overcome some unsettling history in order to slow him down and even their record at 2-2.

Rodgers has thrown for 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on his way to compiling a 112.4 passer rating over his last four Thursday night games. He’s also been absolutely outrageous over his last 13 September home starts, throwing for 3,725 yards and 34 touchdown passes against only three interceptions.

That trend could spell trouble for an Eagles defense that has generated only two total sacks through its first three games, particularly against an offensive line that didn’t yield a sack last week for the first time in over two seasons.

Their opponent in that game? The Eagles, of course.

Meanwhile, the Packers defense has put on a show.

Green Bay is tied for second in the NFL with 12 sacks and is fifth with 23 total quarterback hits. The Packers racked up a total of six sacks last week in their win over the Broncos. A suddenly formidable pass rush has been led by the tandem of Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. The duo has tallied a combined 7.5 sacks and 20 quarterback hits:

Za'Darius Smith submits his application for sack dance of the year 😅 @TheRealZSmith pic.twitter.com/MzFjX4SIrm

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 22, 2019

Unsurprisingly, that fierce pass rush has helped the Packers hold opponents to a total of only 35 points through three games and lead the NFL in takeaways. Green Bay has also been stingy in the red zone as opposing quarterbacks have completed only 2 of 10 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line this season.

Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz must find ways to make the offense’s red zone trips count, and they’ll need to improve upon the two touchdown passes they’ve thrown on 16 attempts inside the 20-yard line through three weeks.

If the Eagles are to reverse the trend that has seen the Packers take five of the last six meetings between these two teams, they will need to get out to a hot start against a Green Bay offense that has generated 21 first quarter points and has scored touchdowns on two of its three opening drives. Green Bay has dominated the first quarter, outscoring opponents by an average of six points per game.  This isn’t exactly great news for an Eagles team that has developed a well-deserved reputation as slow starters.

Maybe the 10 first quarter points the Eagles scored a week ago against Detroit is a sign of things to come. They better hope so.

While the positional matchups are key, above all else, if the Eagles are going to win this game, they need to CATCH THE BALL:

According to Pro Football Focus, 3 of Carson Wentz’ deep balls were dropped today, including this one at the end of the game.

The rest of the entire NFL had a combined 3 drops on deep balls today. #Eagles

https://t.co/WACFu2hqDJ

— Zac (@zacvoynow) September 23, 2019

Cool stat there, huh? Alshon Jeffery is expected to return tonight, so that should help.

Eagles-Packers Betting Trends

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

The Eagles are Due

Road underdogs with a winning percentage between .300-.350 that are coming off of two straight losses and going up against an undefeated team are 27-17-3 ATS (60.5% cover rate) since the 2003 season.

Also since 2003, teams that have failed to cover in three straight games that are playing against teams that have covered three straight games are 12-8-2 ATS (60%).

Road underdogs between 4 – 5.5 points that have failed to cover in three straight games are 12-5 ATS since October of 2003.

Can’t Run? Can’t Cover.

The Eagles are 7-2 ATS under Doug Pederson as an underdog against teams averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry and 5-0 ATS when facing teams averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry and less than 90 rushing yards per game.

Eagles Have Excelled on Thursday Night

The Eagles are 4-0 straight up and against the spread under Doug Pederson in Thursday night contests.

Why Backing the Packers is a Good Bet

The Eagles’ September Struggles

Dating back to last season, the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six September games.

A Rough Start Can Get Worse

While backing teams that fail to cover three straight games playing against teams that have covered three straight tends to be a good bet, it isn’t for road teams at the start of the season. Teams that have failed to cover in their first three games are 0-4-1 ATS and 0-2-1 ATS as the road team when playing an opponent that starts the season with three covers.

Doug Pederson’s Eagles Have Struggled as a Road Underdog

The Eagles are only 1-5 ATS under Pederson as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Packers Have Been Good in Primetime

The Packers are 15-6-1 ATS when Aaron Rodgers starts as a home favorite in primetime games and 7-1-1 ATS when favored between 4-7 points in such games.

Some Other Pro-Packers Trends

NFL home favorites that have won three straight games are 19-10 ATS in primetime games and 8-2 ATS when favored between 3-5 points in such contests. When they have won and covered three in a row coming in, they’re 8-5 ATS.

The Packers are 9-2 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback as a favorite on a three-game winning streak and 6-0 as a home favorite on a three-game winning streak.

Eagles-Packers Prediction

It’s time to make an Eagles-Packers prediction, so here it is.

Two weeks ago, the Eagles were considered to be one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. That was before a slew of injuries, ill-timed penalties, and drops derailed them in back-to-back losses to NFC opponents. Despite those losses, the Eagles remain a dangerous team, and they’re also now a desperate team.

Alshon Jeffery is expected to return tonight, and the Eagles are an experienced team that has played its share of high-stakes road games against difficult opponents over the past two seasons.

Typically, they show well in these games, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. I’ll take an aggressive play on the Eagles at +4 to cover and a lighter play on the moneyline for an outright win.

Pick: Eagles +4 over Packers