It’s No. 12 Penn State making the short trip to Maryland for a Friday night Big Ten primetime clash, and you can get in on the action at PA online sportsbooks. Let’s get into it in our Penn State-Maryland betting preview.

An electric atmosphere is expected tonight at Capital One Field where the Nittany Lions and Terrapins will square off. Maryland’s Friday afternoon classes are cancelled across campus, and the school is adding extra seating ahead of this highly-anticipated matchup. As is usually the case for short road trips, there is expected to be a strong PSU presence in attendance.

Penn State is hitting the road for the first time this season and is coming off a bye week after opening up 3-0 at Beaver Stadium, most recently outlasting Pitt in an ugly 17-10 grind-it-out win.

On the home sideline will be a Maryland squad that opened the season with a bang after pasting Howard by a 79-0 final and then blowing the doors off then 21st-ranked Syracuse. That win catapulted Maryland into the Top 25, but their stay was short-lived after a disappointing road loss to Temple.

That’s the setup, but what about the money?

Read ahead to find out where you can find the best deals and which side we like tonight with our Penn State vs. Maryland betting preview.

How to Bet on Penn State-Maryland

Pennsylvania

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PA online sportsbooks are setting up for a big weekend of college football and Week 4 NFL action with some of their best and most aggressive offers.

As always, we encourage you to make sure that you are shopping around at all of the different sportsbooks to ensure that you are getting the best value, most advantageous spreads, and the most lucrative welcome offers.

Now, let’s take a look at this week’s top options.

FOX Bet PA is offering their regular $20 free + $100 deposit match promo and has a Sal’s Moneyback Special offer for Penn State vs. Maryland. Lock in Penn State at -9.5 and over 60 points, and if your bet doesn’t win, you get your money back.  You can get in on that offer by signing up right here.

We also strongly recommend FanDuel Sportsbook PA, which continues to offer a $500 risk-free bet for new users this week and is offering an odds boost on Penn State to win by 7+ points and the game total to go over 62.5 at a +300 payout (boosted from +225). There’s a separate boost on Penn State to win the first half by 4+ points at a +120 payout (boosted from -105).

New Jersey

If you’re in the state of New Jersey, we strongly suggest that you check out our must-see NJ online sports betting page for a complete look at all of the best welcome offers, bonuses, promotions, and odds boosts.

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FOX Bet is running the same odds boosts for this game in New Jersey, but it is a separate app which you can download here.

William Hill NJ is another top option. Take advantage of a free $50 when you place a $50 bet. 

Finally, PointsBet is still offering a deposit $50, get $100 welcome deal and a promo in which bettors get an additional $6 for every touchdown your team scores in this game when you make a $50 or more pregame spread bet.

 

How to Watch Penn State-Maryland

  • Date: Friday, September 27
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Maryland Stadium (College Park, MD)
  • Network: FS1
  • Announcers: Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman, Coley Harvey
  • Radio:  1210 WPHT (Philadelphia-market)

 

Penn State-Maryland Odds

Here are the current Penn State-Maryland betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:00 a.m. Friday morning.

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Penn State      -6.5 (-110)   -225   O 60.5 (-110)
Maryland     +6.5 (-110)   +185   U 60.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Penn State     -6.5 (-110)   -240   O 61 (-110)
Maryland     +6.5 (-110)   +190   U 61 (-110)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Penn State     -6.5 (-110)    -235   O 60.5 (-110)
Maryland     +6.5 (-110)   +185   U 60.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Penn State     -6.5 (-110)   -235   O 60.5 (-110)
Maryland    +6.5 (-110)   +185   U 60.5 (-110)

 

Win Probability

A quick word on projection systems. Models such as FPI aren’t always accurate predictors of a game’s outcome, but we like to take a look at how they compare with the implied probability of moneyline odds to see if any potential betting value exists. If there’s a pronounced disparity in the numbers, there could be an opportunity for bettors to make a value play.

ESPN’s FPI index gives Penn State a 70.9% win probability.

The Penn State moneyline of -240 at FanDuel carries an implied win probability of 70.6%, so in this case, it’s actually synced up with the FPI projection.

As for Maryland, the +190 payout carries a 34.5% win probability, which is a little bit more than the FPI probability. What’s that mean? You’re not getting moneyline value on Maryland based on FPI’s projection because a 29.4% win probability should pay out at approximately +240 odds.

 

Betting Preview

It’s Penn State. It’s Maryland. It’s Friday Night Lights, man:

You know when something looks good on paper, but it just doesn’t feel right? Ever been there? I’m talking about a situation in which every single box is checked and logic tells you—nay, screams to you—that one side is absolutely the right side, and yet, you just gotta go the other way? That’s exactly where I’m at with this game tonight.

Allow me to explain.

Here’s what we know about this Penn State and Maryland matchup. The Nittany Lions have absolutely dominated this series with an all-time 39-2-1 head-to-head record. Penn State has also won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, including by a combined 104-6 margin over the last two seasons. 104-6! Go back another year and the margin becomes 142-20, which is an average margin of victory of 40.67 points per game.

And yet, they are favored by less than a touchdown tonight.

Trap City—population Penn State.

I know Penn State is putting up 47 points per game. I also know they’re allowing only 10 points and a stingy 323.3 yards per game. The defense has been legit, and you will see shortly why there are several reasons to back the Nittany Lions tonight with your wallet.

Listen, if you want to do that, go right ahead. But I’m out.

A strong PSU presence or not, you have a young offense led by a quarterback making his first college road start against his team’s most difficult opponent to date–one that’s coming off an embarrassing loss, no less–in a nationally televised primetime matchup. And the line is only 6.5? After that type of recent domination? And during a blackout?

Yeah, no thanks.

And that’s without mentioning that we saw what Maryland, a team averaging 537.7 yards per game, was capable of back on Sept. 7 when they dropped a ranked opponent by 43 points.

And, as we’ve seen, Maryland QB Josh Jackson possesses the ability to pop off, too:

Jackson struggled against Temple, a game that he called one of his worst college performances, but the Virginia Tech transfer has thrown for 724 yards and eight touchdowns against only two interceptions so far this season.

 

Penn State-Maryland Betting Trends

Why Backing Penn State is a Good Bet

Obviously, you see which way I’m going with my official prediction ahead of this game, but as I noted above, there’s some information out there that does support a play on Penn State, so let’s take a look at it.

Penn State Plays Up to Its Competition

Penn State is 16-6-2 ATS in its last 24 contests against teams with a winning record.

Winning the Night

James Franklin’s Penn State teams are 8-2 ATS in night games as a favorite, but it should be noted that they are 5-0 ATS at home and only 3-2 ATS in such games when on the road.

And Losing the Night

Maryland is 4-9 ATS at home in primetime games and 3-7 ATS as a home dog overall in primetime games since the 2005 season.

A Good Spread For Big Ten Road Favorites

Big Ten road favorites in conference games that are favored between 5-7 points are 22-12-2 ATS overall and 3-0 ATS when such games are played during the month of September.

Big Ten road favorites playing a team that failed to cover its previous game are 46-29-2 ATS and 6-2 ATS when favored between exactly 5-7 points.

Maryland’s Situational Home Struggles

Maryland is 16-24 ATS over its last 40 games as a home underdog and only 4-8 ATS as a home underdog following an outright loss.

Why Backing Maryland is a Good Bet

Really, more than any historical trend or piece of data, this is a line read and feel pick for me, but here’s some additional information that supports a play on the Terrapins tonight.

Penn State’s Road Struggles as a Favorite

Penn State is only 7-12-1 ATS under James Franklin in conference road games and is just 1-4-1 ATS when favored by seven points or less on the road.

Penn State is also only 1-3-2 ATS under Franklin when failing to cover its previous game and 4-7-1 ATS when failing to cover ahead of a conference game.

Penn State’s September Road Struggles

Franklin’s Nittany Lions teams have had quite a bit of early-season success at Beaver Stadium, but haven’t performed as well away from Happy Valley during the month of September. His teams are only 2-4-1 ATS in September road games.

 

Penn State-Maryland Over/Under

With the total set at 60.5 or 61 at most legal online sportsbooks, let’s take a brief look at some totals trends.

  • Both teams have gone over the total in two of their first three games.
  • The over is 16-12 in Penn State’s road games under Franklin and 12-10 in road conference games.
  • When Penn State plays a road conference game with a total set at 55 points or more, the over is 7-1 under Franklin.

I don’t love the total in this game, but that last trend is a pretty strong one. If I had to, I’d lean with the over.

 

Penn State-Maryland Prediction

I talked a little bit above about Maryland’s explosive offense, but it would be negligent to overlook what has been a very stellar Penn State defense through its first three games. While Terrapins quarterback Josh Jackson has made his share of big plays, he did struggle against Temple as he completed only 15 of 38 pass attempts for 183 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pick. Pair that with some of the pro-Penn State trends above, and I’m not all-in on Maryland to the point that I’m willing to bang them on the moneyline, but I like the setup of this game quite a bit, so I’m willing to roll with them against the spread for the reasons I elaborated upon earlier.

To recap:

  • Maryland is a quality team coming off a bad loss
  • That is now playing at home where they’ve already demonstrated they can take apart a quality opponent
  • They’re going up against a quarterback making his first collegiate start on the road
  • In a game that also features a curious line given Penn State’s total domination in this series

Crab cakes and (covering) football (games). That’s what Maryland does. (I hope.)

Pick: Maryland +6.5 over Penn State