If the Eagles are going to make a move this season and ultimately become the bona fide NFC contender that many experts anticipated they would be a month ago, then they need to grab a win today in what will be their only home date at Lincoln Financial Field this month. Let’s get into it in our Eagles-Jets betting preview and predictions.
Fortunately, they have what looks to be a willing opponent on the schedule in the New York Jets.
With backup quarterback Luke Falk set to start for the NFL’s 31st-ranked scoring offense, one that is averaging just 11 points and an NFL-worst 196.7 yards per game, it’s not hard to see why the Eagles are favored by two touchdowns at PA online sportsbooks.
History isn’t on the Jets’ side, either.
Not only do the Eagles hold a 10-0 all-time series lead, NFL double-digit favorites are 6-0 this season, 38-6 over the past two seasons, and 68-10 (.872 winning percentage) over the past three seasons. And NFL teams that are favored by 13.5 points or more are a staggering 138-15-1 (.902 winning percentage).
Those are some daunting trends for Adam Gase’s team to overcome, particularly against an Eagles squad that has the NFL’s second-best home winning percentage (.750) since Doug Pederson took over prior to the 2016 season.
But there are no guarantees in the NFL.
You may recall the Vikings coming to Philly back in December of 2010 and derailing the Eagles’ quest for a first-round bye as a 14-point underdog behind little-known backup quarterback Joe Webb. That loss marked only one of seven times in 113 games dating back to the start of the 2003 season that a team lost as a favorite of 14 points or more.
With the backdrop now set, let’s get into what to expect this afternoon at The Linc.
How to Bet on Eagles-Jets
There are once again plenty of big odds boosts, generous welcome offers, and fun betting promos at the top PA online sportsbooks this week, so let’s take a look at what’s out there.
At FOX Bet this week are league-wide promos such as Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Special. Lock in on his five-pack of plays, and if at least three picks hit, you win your bet. In addition to other league-wide bet boosts, FOX Bet is offering two custom bets on the Eagles-Jets game:
- Carson Wentz 300+ passing yards, Alshon Jeffery 100+ receiving yards, and Jordan Howard 100+ rushing yards (+3000)
- Luke Falk 300+ passing yards, Robby Anderson 100+ receiving yards (+1000)
Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook PA continues to offer a $500 risk-free bet for new users and has NFL Close Loss Insurance that will refund you up to $50 if your team loses by six points or less on a moneyline bet.
For those of you in New Jersey, stop by our NJ online sports betting page for a comprehensive rundown of all the state’s best promos and welcome offers.
How to Watch Eagles-Jets
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field
- Network: CBS
- Announcers: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon, Jay Feely
- Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), ESPN 98.7 FM (New York)
Temperatures will hover right around 70 degrees at kickoff and stay there throughout the game under cloudy skies. There will be a slight breeze of 10-12 mph, but generally, the weather shouldn’t have an impact on this one.
Here are the current Eagles-Jets betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 7:30 a.m. Sunday morning.
|Jets||+14 (-110)||+700||O 43.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-14 (-110)||-1000||U 43.5 (-110)|
|Jets||+14 (-110)||+600||O 43.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-14 (-110)||-835||U 43.5 (-110)|
|Jets||+14.5 (-120)||+570||O 43.5 (-105)|
|Eagles||-14.5 (+100)||-750||U 43.5 (-115)|
|Jets||+14 (-110)||+575||O 43.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-14 (-110)||-835||U 43.5 (-110)|
We always like to include a look at how the point spreads and implied win probability of the moneyline options available at legal sportsbooks stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread and win probability projections.
Let’s knock this disclaimer out. ELO and other models are not necessarily accurate predictors of a game’s outcome, but occasionally, a pronounced disparity pops up that suggests there could be some value on a certain side.
This week, FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projection has the Eagles favored by 11.5 points and with an 84% win probability. With the Eagles currently favored by 14 points across most legal sportsbooks, the ELO measure indicates there is about 2.5 points of betting value on the Jets.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the Eagles at -835 moneyline odds over at DraftKings is 89.3%. That’s notably higher than their 84% ELO win probability, meaning the Eagles moneyline is juiced up by this measure.
As for the Jets, the implied probability of their +600 moneyline odds is 14.3%, meaning there is some slight moneyline payout value on the Jets when paired with the ELO projection.
That being said, if you’re taking the Jets on the moneyline–good luck.
My focus heading into this game is on a Jets offense that has been simply terrible through its first three games this season. They’re dead-last in yards per game (196.7), dead-last in passing yards per game (131), 31st in points per game (11), and 28th in rushing yards per game (65.7).
Beyond the big-picture numbers, the New York offense has been brutal in other statistical categories. It is ranked last in the league in third-down conversion percentage, first downs per game, and yards per play. It’s also 25th in time of possession.
Bad, bad, bad across the board.
Compounding the issue for the Jets is that starting quarterback Sam Darnold was ruled out late in the week after some mid-week hope that he could suit up for this one. At 0-3 and desperately needing a win, head coach Adam Gase gave Darnold an important share of first-team practice reps, but will once again have to turn to second-year backup Luke Falk:
Our early edition @NYDNSports back page as we wait for Yankees-Twins Game 1: From @MMehtaNYDN — Adam Gase's plan to give Sam Darnold the bulk of first-team snaps blows up as QB is ruled out. — https://t.co/fnJ57KXCdc pic.twitter.com/5in1wXMbQI
— Tom Biersdorfer (@TomBiersdorfer) October 5, 2019
And yet, it’s hard to feel totally confident backing the Eagles given their absolutely depleted secondary and an inconsistent pass rush that has combined to yield the NFL’s worst passing defense through four games. Philadelphia comes in allowing 323.8 passing yards per game and has only generated a total of three sacks.
That’s bad, and it sounds even worse when you consider that the Panthers and Patriots are tied for the NFL lead with 18 sacks.
And it’s not just hyper-critical Eagles fans that are noticing the team’s pass defense issues:
Sam Darnold to Jamison Crowder at practice. Crowder going up against the Eagles cornerbacks, I mean, air. pic.twitter.com/S9o26pZTdf
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) October 3, 2019
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense comes in with the NFL’s seventh-best scoring unit at 27.5 points per game. They possess the eighth-ranked red zone offense and have converted an NFL-best 56.1% on third-down this season. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is a big reason for that success. He leads the NFL in third-down passing yards per game and is second in the NFL in third-down passer rating.
The Jets are allowing over 286 passing yards per game but do possess the league’s eighth-best run defense, so it will likely be up to Wentz once again this week to keep the sticks moving through the air.
Eagles-Jets Betting Trends
Why Backing the Jets is a Good Bet
Tough to Keep it Up
Home teams coming off a cover in their previous game that are favored by 13-15, as the Eagles are this week, are only 6-11 ATS over the past 15 seasons.
Teams that are on a one-game cover streak are 17-26 ATS when favored by 13.5-15 points.
“Who are the Eagles to be Giving All of These Points?”
Since 2003, teams with a .500 record that are favored at home by 11 or more points are only 6-13 ATS overall and 2-5 ATS after a win.
Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet
Teams favored by 13-15 points after a road game are 15-8 ATS in out of conference games.
Doug Keeps it Rolling
The Eagles under Doug Pederson have done a good job at riding momentum. Check this out:
- The Eagles are 9-2 ATS at home when covering their previous game under Doug Pederson.
- The Eagles are 9-4 ATS at home off of any win.
NFL teams with at least 10 days between games that are favored by double-digits are 9-4 ATS during the month of October since the 2003 season. Such teams are also 3-1 ATS in this role when they were an underdog in their previous game.
A Word on the Total
Don’t love the total in this one, but I can’t neglect it, so consider these trends:
- The over is 4-2 in Eagles games coached by Pederson against AFC opponents.
- The over is 6-2-1 when NFC teams host AFC teams as a favorite of 11+ points and the total is between 43-45 points.
- The over has hit in both Eagles’ home games this season, but is still just 9-17 overall in the regular season since Pederson took over.
It’s time to make an Eagles-Jets prediction, so here it is.
The Eagles can’t defend the pass, but the Jets are an absolute mess on the offensive side of the football, and I don’t see that changing this week against an Eagles team that should have learned its lesson about look-ahead spots two weeks ago against Detroit. While I don’t expect fireworks from Wentz and the Eagles offense against a solid New York defense, I do think Carson Wentz will continue his third-down efficiency, leading to a methodical and workmanlike win that also covers the spread.
Pick: Eagles (-14) over Jets