Eagles vs. Vikings Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks

eagles vikings betting preview: odds, picks, predictions
PHOTO CREDIT: JAMES LANG-USA TODAY SPORTS

Some tense showdowns, along with the palpable animosity between their fanbases, has turned the Eagles-Vikings matchup into one of the NFL’s best budding rivalries in recent seasons. And as if any additional intrigue was needed ahead of this game, one that figures to have serious ramifications on the NFC playoff picture, you can bet on it at PA online sportsbooks, which are offering a number of odds boosts on the Eagles today.

Trap alert?

Maybe.

The Eagles and Vikings will meet for the fourth time in as many seasons this afternoon in Minnesota, and if recent history is any indication, we should be in for an intriguing football game.

After losing in the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago–a loss that denied Minnesota the distinction of becoming the first NFL team to play in the Super Bowl at home–the Vikings and their fans not only had to watch the Eagles go on to win one of the best Super Bowls of all-time in their stadium, they also had to watch that video of a drunk kid screaming, “GO BIIIIIIRRRRDDSSS!!!” on loop for an entire offseason.

And then there was also this:

Anyway, while the Vikings scored some revenge last season in a gift-wrapped 23-21 win at Lincoln Financial Field, the Eagles would once again have the last laugh as Minnesota folded down the stretch, allowing the Birds to slip into the postseason in the process.

As for today’s meeting, sometimes the importance of these early-season games get a bit overblown, but with both teams entering with a 3-2 record in a crowded NFC that currently features 11 teams over .500, the loser of today’s game runs the risk of encountering a significant roadblock in its path to the playoffs.

So, which team will score an important victory and grab the cover in the process? Let’s get into it with our Eagles-Vikings betting predictions.

How to Bet on Eagles-Vikings

Pennsylvania

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There are once again plenty of big odds boosts, generous welcome offers, and fun betting promos at the top PA online sportsbooks this week, so let’s take a look at what’s out there.

FOX Bet PA continues to offer a free $20 sign up bonus and up to a $100 deposit match that you can catch right here .

At FOX Bet this week are league-wide promos such as Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Special. Lock in on his five-pack of plays, and if at least three picks hit, you win your bet. In addition to other league-wide bet boosts, FOX Bet is offering a parlay boost that includes the Eagles. Grab the Birds (+3.5), along with the Redskins (-4.5) and Saints (+2.5) to cover and cash in a +600 payout.

Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook PA continues to offer a $500 risk-free bet for new users and has NFL Close Loss Insurance that will refund you up to $50 if your team loses by six points or less on a moneyline bet.

Finally, SugarHouse Sportsbook is also offering the Eagles moneyline at a strong +300 payout (boosted from +148).

New Jersey

For those of you in New Jersey, stop by our NJ online sports betting page for a comprehensive rundown of all the state’s best promos and welcome offers.

FOX Bet is running their same offers in New Jersey, but it is available in NJ via a separate app. Download it right here .

Indiana

Indiana online sports betting went live late last month and DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, which will match your first bet up to $200, is far and away the state’s top mobile option.

 

How to Watch Eagles-Vikings

  • Date: Sunday, October 13
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: US Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
  • Network: FOX
  • Announcers: Kenny Albert (play-by-play), Charles Davis (analyst), Pam Oliver (field)
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), KFAN 100.3 (Twin Cities)

 

Eagles-Vikings Weather

This game will be played indoors, so the weather is a non-factor. Good thing it’s indoors, too. Temperatures in Minneapolis are expected to be in the mid-30s with an early-October wintry mix hitting the region. Isn’t it too early for that stuff?

 

Eagles-Vikings Odds

Here are the current Eagles-Vikings betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 8:30 a.m. Sunday morning.

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3.5 (-118)   +150   O 44.5 (-110)
Vikings     -3.5 (+100)   -175   U 44.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3.5 (-120)   +160   O 44.5 (-110)
Vikings     -3.5 (-103)   -182   U 44.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3 (-110)   +164   O 44 (-115)
Vikings     -3 (-110)   -190   U 44 (-105)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles     +3.5 (-120)   +155   O 44.5 (-110)
Vikings     -3.5 (-103)   -195   U 44.5 (-110)

 

Win Probability

We always like to include a look at how the point spreads and implied win probability of the moneyline options available at legal sportsbooks stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread and win probability projections.

Let’s get this acknowledgement out of the way: ELO and other models are not necessarily accurate predictors of a game’s outcome, but occasionally, a pronounced disparity pops up that suggests there could be some value on a certain side.

This week, FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projection has the Vikings favored by 1.5 points and with a 55% win probability. With the Eagles currently getting 3.5 points across most legal sportsbooks, the ELO measure indicates there is about 2.5 points of betting value on Philly, which is particularly substantial as the spread crosses over three points.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the Vikings at -182 moneyline odds is 64.5%. That’s notably higher than their 55% ELO win probability, meaning the Vikings moneyline is juiced up by this measure.

As for the Eagles, the implied probability of their +160 moneyline odds is only 38.3%, meaning there is some moneyline value on the Eagles when paired with the ELO projection.

 

Eagles-Vikings Preview

The Eagles moved from dead-last in the NFL in sacks to 12th last week after becoming the first NFL team ever to record 10 sacks and two defensive touchdowns in their blowout win over the Jets.

That probably helps explain why Luke Falk, the quarterback who was thoroughly overwhelmed in that game, is no longer with the Jets.

While the Eagles should feel good about their breakout performance, they face a much more difficult task today against a Vikings offense that finally got on track in a blowout win over the Giants last week. After scoring just six points the two weeks ago against Chicago, a performance that led to wide receiver Adam Thielen voicing his frustrations with Vikings passing game, quarterback Kirk Cousins rebounded by completing 81.6% of his passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns.

That sets up a Jekyll and Hyde matchup today between the Eagles defense and Cousins.

Will the Eagles’ defensive front consistently get after the quarterback as they did a week ago, or will they look like the unit that recorded only three sacks over its first four games, helping contribute to what was then a league-worst pass defense?

Will Cousins push the ball down the field as he did a week ago, or will he stagnate a talented set of skill players like he has on multiple occasions this season?

The answers to those questions will likely decide the winner.

Eagles-Vikings Betting Trends

Note: All trends include data dating back to the start of the 2003 season.

Why Backing the Vikings is a Good Bet

The Vikings Have Been Dominant at Home

Minnesota has crushed it at home under Mike Zimmer. The numbers present a daunting task for the Eagles this afternoon:

  • The Vikings are 29-12-1 ATS under Mike Zimmer at home and 23-8-1 ATS at home as a favorite. They’re also 8-2 ATS when favored at home by three points or less.
  • The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite against teams coming off a win are 4-0 ATS when favored by three points or less.

Momentum Killers

History shows big problems for short road underdogs that enter on a roll:

  • Road underdogs of three points or less that won and covered their previous two games are 15-33-2 ATS and only 11-21-1 in conference games.
  • Road underdogs of three points or less that won and covered their previous two games are 9-27-1 ATS after the month of September.
  • Road underdogs of three points or less that won and covered their previous two games are 10-20-1 ATS when playing a team coming off a win and 6-16-1 ATS after the month of September.

 

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

Short Favorites are Bad Bets off Blowout Wins

Frankly, it was a difficult process to find trends that worked against Minnesota today, but I was able to dig up some problematic trends built around short home favorites coming off of a blowout win:

  • Home teams favored by three points or less that won their previous game by 16 points or more playing a team coming off a win are only 21-30-4 ATS and 11-23-4 ATS in conference games.
  • Home teams favored by three points or less that won their previous game by 16 points or more playing a team coming off a 16+ win are only 3-10-1 ATS and 0-3-1 ATS during the month of October.

Staying Hot

The Eagles are 4-2 ATS under Doug Pederson when they have scored 30 points or more in their previous two games.

 

A Word on the Total

Here a few quick notes to know about the total, which is currently 44.5 at most sportsbooks.

The over is 18-8 in all regular season road games coached by Doug Pederson.

The under has hit in six of Minnesota’s last seven games.

When the road team is averaging between 28-29 points per game and the total is set between 44-45 points, the under is 15-7.

 

Eagles-Vikings Prediction

It’s time to make an Eagles-Vikings prediction, so here it is.

I’m still bullish on the Eagles’ long-term prospects this season, but I have strong concerns about this game. Kirk Cousins takes a lot of heat, and rightfully so, but he has had success in his career against Philadelphia and even beat them on the road a season ago. I expect that he’s going to make his share of plays throwing the ball to both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, as will running back Dalvin Cook, who’s one of the game’s most dangerous offensive weapons.

I’m also not sure the Eagles can consistently run the ball on this Minnesota front, which will put continued pressure on Carson Wentz to convert third-and-long situations. Despite his ability to do so, that remains a dangerous way to live.

I’ll take the home team in what should be an extremely loud and hostile environment.

Pick: Vikings (-3.5) over Eagles

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3 Comments

  • Stone cold lock October 13, 2019 at 11:47 am

    Roob, DGunn, & NFL HoFer Ray D picked the Eagles to win.

    Reply
  • Ribbed for Bwanks’s pleasure October 13, 2019 at 12:15 pm

    Thank god you picked the Vikings. That’s a fucking heinous shirt you’re wearing.

    Reply
  • The following receivers were all picked near or after JJ arcega Whiteside and are outperforming him October 13, 2019 at 4:36 pm

    Howie Roseman wasting high draft picks on scrubbs like cb Sidney Jones and wr JJ Arcega Whiteside is hurting this team.

    Reply
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