Super Bowl 54 Betting Prediction Against The Spread

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If the current 2020 Super Bowl odds are any indication, it would seem that we are in store for an epic championship slugfest between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday night. Let’s get into our Super Bowl betting prediction.

Beyond the numerous intriguing matchups, this high-stakes bout is rife with captivating storylines that should make for fascinating theatre. And if these lofty expectations fall short? Fear not–legal sports betting in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Indiana should supply us with plenty of drama.

Bettors will be able to wager on hundreds of the game’s outcomes, including Super Bowl props (such as the coin toss) and the game total, but the focus here will be on the spread. Included in this post is a look at the current spread, line movement, game matchups, betting trends, and who you should take against the spread.

 

Super Bowl 54 Odds

From our Super Bowl 54 odds page: The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorite at several legal sportsbooks following the conference championship round and have since remained there. As of mid-week, 59% of spread bets and 56% of the spread handle back Kansas City at reporting books. Meanwhile, San Francisco is getting 60% of moneyline bets but only 43% of the moneyline handle.

The public’s slant towards Kansas City probably has a lot to do with the quarterback matchup. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes enters this game off of two outstanding postseason performances in which he completed 65.7% of his pass attempts for 615 yards and eight touchdowns. That’s good for a ridiculous 131.5 quarterback rating.

Jimmy Garappolo, meanwhile, has had a much different postseason as he’s played more of a complimentary role in his team’s two convincing victories. Garappolo has completed 63% of his passes for just 208 yards and one touchdown for a rather underwhelming 83.6 rating.

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
49ers         +1.5 (-110)      +108   O 54.5 (-110)
Chiefs         -1.5  (-110)      -122   U 54.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
49ers         +2 (-110)      +105   O 54 (-105)
Chiefs         -2  (-110)      -125   U 54 (-115)

 

 

How to Bet on Super Bowl 54

Ready our full guide on how to bet on the Super Bowl. In PA, NJ, or IN? Here’s a quick primer of the best options in those states:

Pennsylvania

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. Only 1x Wager Applies, Playable in PA Only

Read about Super Bowl betting in PA.

 

New Jersey

The best offer is BetMGM’s 200-to-1 Super Bowl promo and DraftKings’ +300 Super Bowl moneyline promo.

Read about Super Bowl betting in NJ.

 

Indiana

 

Super Bowl 54 Betting Preview

The Setup

With a short point spread set for Super Bowl 54, picking the winner likely also means picking the team that will cover. That would be in line with past Super Bowl results in which 45 of the 53 winners also covered the spread.

Chiefs

The Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) have been red-hot against the spread over past two months, going 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight contests. The last time the Chiefs failed to cover the spread came back on Nov. 10 when they fell in a 35-32 upset at Tennessee, and they haven’t looked back since.

Kansas City has been the NFL’s best bet as a favorite this season on its way to a 10-4-1 ATS mark, including a 5-2 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs backers will also be happy to know that favorites have a strong 35-18 all-time straight up record in the Super Bowl.

49ers

The 49ers (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) have also been a solid bet over their last eight games. Sporting a 6-2 ATS mark since mid-November, San Francisco cruised to easy covers against both Minnesota and Green Bay on its way to Miami.

Those planning to back the 49ers will be glad to hear that they were the NFL’s best underdog bet this season at a perfect 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU). They will also be glad to learn that underdogs are on a 10-6 ATS run dating back to the 2003 season.

Note: The 49ers enter with the superior record, but, perhaps surprisingly, only two teams over the past 14 years that possessed the better regular season record went on to win the Super Bowl.

 

Super Bowl 54 Betting Trends

Let’s take a look at both some historical Super Bowl betting trends and each team’s situational trends.

Trends Backing the 49ers

Shanahan’s 49ers a Good Dog

The 49ers are 18-13 ATS as un underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan, including 8-2 ATS when quarterback Jimmy Garappolo starts.

Balance is Key

Much has been made of the Chiefs’ explosive offensive attack, but at 30.2 points per game, it’s the 49ers who have been the higher scoring team. San Francisco features the league’s No. 2 scoring offense and its No. 5 scoring defense (18.2 points per game), making it the more balanced team in this contest.

There Are Concerns for the Chiefs

Winners of 9 of their last 10 games, the Chiefs have been red-hot and often dominant since mid-November, but the fates of past similarly-performing teams should be cause for concern. The last eight teams to have have won 9 of their previous 10 games leading into the Super Bowl are only 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS, while teams that have outscored their opposition by at least 12 points per game over a 10-game stretch leading into the Super Bowl are only 4-8 ATS.

Weird Pro-49ers Trend

In what is most definitely one of the more bizarre recent Super Bowl trends, teams wearing white have won 13 of the previous 15 championship games. San Francisco will be wearing white on Sunday night.

Trends Backing the Chiefs

Reid’s Teams Excel With Extra Rest

Andy Reid has long been known as one of the NFL’s best coaches when given extra time to prepare.  Since the 2003 season, Reid is 19-6 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) with at least 11 days to prepare for an opponent.

Public Trust

Reid has also had considerable success when the public bets on his team. Since ’03, Reid is 87-68-5 ATS when getting at least 55% of spread bets, including 39-28-2 ATS with the Chiefs. He’s 33-21-2 ATS (61.1%) when getting at least 58% of spread bets. While it’s not usually great to be on the same side as the public, it’s worth noting that teams getting at least 55% of spread bets are 7-3 ATS over the last 10 Super Bowls.

Offensive Momentum

Teams that have scored at least 30 points in the previous two games leading up to the Super Bowl are 5-2 ATS over the last seven games this has occurred.

Weird Pro-Chiefs Trend

Kansas City has only two players with Super Bowl experience to San Francisco’s eight. Fortunately for them, teams with less Super Bowl experience are 8-5 over the last 13 Super Bowls.

 

Super Bowl 54 Prediction

Much of the focus leading up to this game has been placed on the Chiefs’ explosive playmaking ability, but the 49ers’ offense shouldn’t be overlooked. Jimmy Garappolo has had a quiet postseason, much in part to Kyle Shanahan’s ultra-conservative approach, but he continues to collect wins and has shown the ability throughout the regular season to make plays when needed. San Francisco’s balance, particularly its ability to run the football and get after the passer, gives it a terrific chance to pull the upset.

Still, I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl following the wild card round, and I don’t see any reason to change that pick now. Kansas City should be able to run the football just well enough to keep San Francisco’s secondary honest. The 49ers are a terrific defensive unit, but I’m not so sure how they’re going to deal with the Chiefs’ overwhelming speed. Ultimately, I’m buying into the storyline that this year is finally Andy Reid’s year. San Francisco is legit, but I just can’t pass up a red-hot Mahomes in what essentially boils down to a pick’em. Give me the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs (-1.5) over 49ers

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1 Comment

  • The Dawg January 30, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    Hey Wanks- your weird Pro-49er trend is actually not really a pro-49ers trend. Of the last 15 championship games, 13 of the white wearing teams won but 49ers were one of the 2 losing teams. So I would say it is a trend, but maybe not exactly a 49ers pro-trend?

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