Chiefs vs. Texans Betting Preview: Why The Under Is The Play

chiefs texans betting preview odds picks
PHOTO CREDIT: JAY BIGGERSTAFF-USA TODAY SPORTS

Football is back, and, of course, you can bet on it, so let’s jump right into our Chiefs vs. Texans betting preview.

 

Preview

The 101st NFL season kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium tonight when the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans in a rematch of last January’s AFC Divisional Playoff matchup.

All users get the Chiefs as a +101 underdog tonight with DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking right here.

Memorably, the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second quarter deficit in that game with a barrage of quick-hitting touchdowns to take a 28-24 lead into the locker room at the half en route to a 51-31 victory. In doing so, Kansas City became the first team in league history to erase a postseason deficit of at least 20 points and go on to win by 20+ points.

Tonight, a new-look Texans offense  will attempt to avenge that loss, while the Chiefs look to avoid a Super Bowl victory hangover on the national stage.

With the setup out of the way, let’s get into everything you need to know about how to bet the Chiefs vs. Texans game, including Chiefs vs. Texans odds, betting trends, and top promos.

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Chiefs vs. Texans Odds

Here is a look at the current Chiefs vs. Texans odds. The Chiefs enter this matchup as a strong 9.5-point favorite, and it’s not particularly hard to understand why. Here is a look at the current odds:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Texans         +9.5 (-107)       +360   O 53 (-110)
Chiefs          -9.5 (-114)      -455   U 53 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook,

      Spread     Money        Total
Texans       +9.5 (-110)      +350   O 53.5 (-110)
Chiefs       -9.5 (-110)      -450   U  53.5 (-110)

There are three points to consider with this spread.

  • After falling behind 24-0 in their playoff meeting last January, Kansas City ended the game on a 51-7 run. The overmatched Texans defense simply had no answer for the explosive Chiefs offense.
  • The Chiefs are favored by oddsmakers to win Super Bowl 55, so the defending champs enter the season (and this game) with sky-high expectations. Meanwhile, the Texans enter widely regarded as a middle-of-the-pack team, particularly after the team parted ways with DeAndre Hopkins this past offseason.
  • The Chiefs were money down the stretch in 2019. Literally. Kansas City rattled off nine straight covers on their way to winning Super Bowl 54.

In short, we have a star-studded championship team that is expected to repeat going up against a team it demolished eight months ago. That’s why we’re seeing such an abnormally large spread in the season opener.

It’s also worth noting the Chiefs are +101 at DraftKings.

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Win Probability

In terms of how the current odds stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model, there is some slight point spread value on the Texans. ELO installs the Chiefs as a 7.5-point favorite with a 75% win probability. Meanwhile, DraftKings has the Kansas City moneyline at -455, which carries an implied win probability of 82%. ELO suggest this is an overpay as a 75% win probability would place the Chiefs at -300.

 

Where Is the Money Going?

Let’s take a quick look at the Chiefs-Texans betting breakdown.

As of Thursday morning, the Chiefs are receiving 58% of all spread bets and 65% of all spread money. This isn’t particularly surprising since the general public wants to back an explosive offense with a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes.

In terms of the total, 61% of bets are on the over, but 57% of the money is on the under. This means more aggressive bettors are on the under.

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Texans

  • Date: Thursday, September 10
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Network: NBC
  • Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
  • Radio: WDAF 106.5 FM (KC), KILT 100.3 FM and 610 AM (HOU)

How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans

Like last football season, sports bettors in states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Indiana can wager on pro football. However, this season, bettors in states such as Colorado and Illinois can also bet on the NFL legally.

If you’ve yet to sign up for some of the top sportsbooks, you’re in luck as they are bringing some aggressive bonus offers for the season opener.

DraftKings Sportsbook, with $1,000 in free bets for new users, is giving both new and current players the opportunity to grab the Chiefs as a 101-point underdog with a $50 max bet tonight. This, by any definition, is a no-brainer. Get these offers by clicking here.

FanDuel Sportsbook, which recently bumped its risk-free bet offer all the way up to $1,000, is also giving new players the Chiefs at +2500 odds tonight. With a $5 max bet, new players at FanDuel Sportsbook will receive a $125 payout if the Chiefs beat the Texans. Get these offers here.

Meanwhile, FOX Bet, which also gives away up to $1,000 in free bets, has a $10 bonus for every Patrick Mahomes touchdown tonight. Get it here in PA and here in NJ. 

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Chiefs vs. Texans Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated.

Why Backing the Chiefs Makes Sense

Andy Reid Starts Fast

Reid is 10-7 ATS in Week 1 since ’03, and he’s 5-2 ATS (6-1 straight up) with the Chiefs. Kansas City has won five straight Week 1 games under Reid.

Reid is 19-9 ATS in Weeks 1-4 as Chiefs head coach, and he’s 15-6 ATS in Weeks 1-3.

Houston, Not So Much

The Texans have lost four of their last five season openers.

Why Backing the Texans Makes Sense

Big Spreads, Big Problems

Week 1 home teams favored between 9 and 11 points are 3-14 ATS. Teams favored between 9 and 10 points are 3-10 ATS, including four straight losses.

Totals Trends

The under is 33-22-1 in Chiefs games coached by Reid at Arrowhead Stadium.

The under is 11-4-1 in the Texans’ last 16 September games.

 

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction

After a sluggish start to last season’s playoff meeting between these two teams, the Chiefs blew the doors off an overmatched Texans defense. Ostensibly, Houston hasn’t done much to bolster its defense in terms of personnel, but it did move on from coordinator Romeo Crennel. Anthony Weaver is now in charge, but it would seem that he’s up against it in his debut.

I’m aware of how hot the Chiefs were down the stretch last season, and I recognize the likelihood that they will make a similar run this season. Still, given the huge point spread in play here, I’m hesitant to lay the number for a few reasons.

I suspect Bill O’ Brien will attempt to slow things down a bit after the Chiefs dropped 51 points last January. The Texans aren’t going to win a track meet tonight, and O’Brien knows it.

More importantly, however, is the lack of preseason action and fine-tuning. As noted above, big favorites struggle early in the season, and I have concerns there could be some rust to shake. I like the Chiefs to win, but a double-digit victory under this context is a big ask.

Given the lack of preseason game action, I’m actually going to go against the grain a bit and say these two teams don’t come near their combined 82-point output from January. Combine the preseason rust factor with Reid’s track record of the under hitting at home, the Texans’ propensity to stay under in September under O’Brien, and the fact that the sharp money seems to be on this side, and that’s enough for me to lock in a play on under 54.5 points.

Bets We Like

New players at FanDuel Sportsbook: Chiefs to win at +2500 odds and Chiefs to win by 1-13 points (get it here).

All players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Chiefs +101 at -110 odds (get it here).

Chiefs vs. Texans Pick

The official pick is under 54.5 points.

Note: The spread has since dropped to 53 at some books since publication.

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