Eagles vs. Rams Betting Preview: Why the Under Looks Like the Right Side

eagles rams betting preview odds pick

The Eagles will look to rebound from one of the worst losses of the Doug Pederson era on Sunday afternoon, while the Rams attempt to knock off an NFC East favorite for the second straight week. Can the Eagles bounce back and avoid a disastrous 0-2 start? Let’s jump into it with our Eagles vs. Rams betting preview to find out.

Preview

The top two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft will face off on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field, and the two quarterbacks enter coming off of very different Week 1 performances.

Things were going so well for the Eagles in the first half last Sunday at Washington. Carson Wentz was on point, the defense suffocated an anemic Football Team (still weird) offense, and the Eagles looked well on their way to a blowout victory. In fact, the question wasn’t a matter of if the Eagles would win, it was a matter of by how much they would win.

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And then, well, the wheels fell off. A late first-half interception by Washington cornerback Fabian Moreau sparked a miserable collapse and led to a week in Philadelphia filled with questions about the quarterback, head coach, and general manager.

Allowing eight sacks and going scoreless over the final 36:54 against a team with no name will do that, I guess.

Meanwhile, the Rams gutted out a tight win over the Cowboys in their first game at the $5 billion SoFi Stadium. The trio of running back Malcolm Brown, wide receiver Robert Woods, and quarterback Jared Goff each finished with solid stat lines, and the Rams benefited from a pair of questionable fourth quarter calls.

The first was a curious fourth down decision by Mike McCarthy, who passed on a would-be game-tying field goal before his team turned the ball over on downs. The second was a debatable offensive pass interference call on Michael Gallup, a call that would negate a 47-yard gain and ultimately prevent an opportunity for Dallas to tie things up in the final seconds.

Will the Eagles recover, or will the Rams fly east and pick up a second straight win to start the season. Let’s get into it with our Eagles vs. Rams betting preview, odds, picks, and predictions.

Eagles vs. Rams Odds

The Eagles vs. Rams odds have been all over the place this week. Initially, Philadelphia opened as a short favorite before money on the other side pushed the line to Rams -1.5. However, as the week has progressed, the Eagles are now back to a small one-point favorite. This figures to be one of the most highly bet games on the board this weekend, so expect some more back-and-forth fluctuation ahead of kickoff.

In terms of the total, which opened at 46 across several sportsbooks, there has been a slight downward tilt as it currently sits at 45.5 on Friday afternoon. Here is a look at the current Eagles vs. Rams Week 2 odds:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Rams        +1 (-120)       -107   O 45.5 (-110)
Eagles        -1 (-103)      -107   U 45.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Rams       +1 (-110)      +100   O 45.5 (-110)
Eagles       -1 (-110)      -118   U 45.5 (-110)

Win Probability

Let’s take a look at how the current point spread and moneyline odds stack up with an alternate game projection model in search of some potential betting value with these Eagles vs. Rams odds.

To do so, let’s examine FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model, which gives the Rams an ever-so-slight edge in this matchup. According to ELO, the Rams should be favored by 1/2 point and have a 51% chance of winning the game.

Given this rollercoaster spread has seen both the Rams and Eagles favored as it has evolved throughout the week, it’s hard to definitively say if there will be any value on either side by kickoff.

If the Eagles remain a one-point favorite, ELO suggests bettors are getting roughly 1.5 points of value by backing the Rams.

Ultimately, however, ELO is generally in line with the Eagles vs. Rams odds in that both essentially deem this one a coin flip.

Where Is the Money Going?

Let’s take a quick look at the Eagles-Rams betting splits.

As of Friday afternoon, the Eagles are receiving only 27% of total point spread bets but are getting 53% of the money. On the surface, this would seem to indicate that early-week big bettors are backing the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Rams are catching 70% of moneyline bets as well as 63% of the handle.

As for the total, bettors are hitting the under at a 68% clip, while 64% of the money backs the same side.

 

How to Watch Eagles vs. Rams

  • Date: Sunday, September 20
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Lincoln Financial Field
  • Network: FOX
  • Announcers: Kenny Albert (play-by-play), Jonathan Vilma (analyst), Shannon Spake (reporter)
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), KSPN 710 AM and KCBS-FM 93.1 FM (Los Angeles)

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Rams

Bettors located in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Indiana are once again able to wager on the NFL this season, but players in Colorado and Illinois got their first taste of legal NFL betting last weekend.

Ahead of Week 2, the promo offers remain strong.

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Finally,  FOX Bet, which also gives away up to $1,000 in free bets, is giving bettors a no-brainer chance to double their money if the Eagles score a touchdownGet it here in PA and here  in NJ. 

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Eagles vs. Rams Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated. The Eagles are favored at the time of this post.

Why Backing the Eagles Makes Sense

Short Spread Success

  • As a favorite of three points or less, the Eagles are 6-3 ATS when favored at home under Doug Pederson.
  • AFC/NFC East teams that are favored at home by three points or less against an AFC/NFC West team are 19-8 ATS in 1 p.m. ET games.

What If The Eagles Are an Underdog?

If the Eagles kickoff as an underdog, know that AFC/NFC East home dogs playing a 1p game against AFC/NFC west teams are 26-16 ATS.

Does the Early Start Matter?

East coast home teams are 72-60-1 ATS against west coast teams with early starts.

Head-to-head advantage

Doug Pederson is 2-0 ATS and SU against Sean McVay. Both of those wins came with the Eagles as an underdog.

Why Backing the Rams Makes Sense

Rough Rebounds

  • The Eagles are only 4-8 ATS at home following a loss and 1-4 ATS when favored at home following a loss as a favorite.
  • The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in Carson Wentz’s home starts following a loss.
  • The Eagles are 3-7 ATS at home when they score 20 points or less in their game previous game. They’re 9-14 ATS overall when this happens.

If the Eagles are an Underdog…

Home teams are 33-43-1 ATS against the spread as a dog of less than 3 points with a total set between 45-47 points.

A Tale of Two Starts

The Eagles are 5-8 ATS in Wentz’s September starts and 2-4 ATS in his home September starts. Meanwhile, the Rams are 8-4 ATS in Goff’s September starts and 3-1 ATS in his starts as a road team.

A Note on the Total

The Eagles and Rams combined for a total of 78 points in their 2017 matchup and a total 53 points in 2018. Plus, the Eagles averaged 36.5 ppg in those two contests, and yet, this is a fairly low total. Why?

Well, consider the following:

  • The under is 7-3 in Doug Pederson home games with a total set at 46 or higher. It is 15-5 at 45 or higher. It’s 23-9 in all Pederson regular season home games. It’s 14-5 when he coaches at home following an over (the Eagles went over the total last week).
  • The under is 15-8-1 in 1 p.m. games that feature AFC/NFC East teams playing AFC/NFC West teams with a total between 45-47 points.
  • The under is 44-33-1 in games with a total of 45-47 points when both teams scored between 10-20 points the previous game.

Eagles vs. Rams Prediction

I remain concerned about the Eagles’ ability to protect Carson Wentz, and I remain concerned about Wentz’s decision-making and reluctance to get rid of the football. Still, while there are plenty of valid reasons for concern regarding the Eagles’ overall direction, I’m not so sure that Los Angeles is an NFC powerhouse, either. Assuming Miles Sanders and Lane Johnson play, an embarrassed team that seemed to let its guard down a week ago should have enough talent to rebound at home this week.

That being said, the Eagles have struggled to cover the number with Wentz at home in September games, and, frankly, they looked awful in Week 1. For that reason, I’m treading lightly on the side and turning my attention to the total. The trends overwhelmingly suggest that these two teams will play under the total. Historically, the Philadelphia defense has been vastly better at home under Jim Schwartz, and this one feels much more likely to be an offensive struggle than one with back-and-forth explosive plays like we saw in the first two meetings between Doug Pederson and Sean McVay.

Bets We Like

If you like the Eagles to win, the play is to grab them to do so by 1-13 points with FanDuel Sportsbook at +165 odds (get it here ).

New players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Get the Eagles (or any NFL team) to win in Week 2 at 100-1 odds (get it here ).

Eagles vs. Rams Pick

My lean is on the Eagles to win, but the play I’m going to roll with is under 45.5 points.

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