Eagles vs. Washington Betting Preview: Why the Eagles Will Cover
The Eagles look to continue their recent dominance against Washington on Sunday afternoon at FedExField, so let’s jump right into our Eagles vs. Washington Football Team betting preview to find out if they will do it.
Preview
Ostensibly, the Eagles and Washington come into this game in two very different places. Philadelphia has reached the playoffs in three straight years, including its Super Bowl 52 victory. Washington, meanwhile, is in the middle of a franchise transformation led by new head coach Ron Rivera. In fact, almost everything is different for this football team than it was in Week 1 a season ago – a new coaching staff, front office, starting quarterback, starting running back, uniforms, and entirely new branding.
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How’s that for change?
What is the same, however, is that Philly and Washington meet in Week 1 once again, and once again, the Eagles enter are a significant favorite.
Will Washington begin the Ron Rivera era with a bang, or will the Eagles open the season with a Week 1 win for the fifth straight year? Let’s break it all down with our Eagles vs. Washington betting preview, odds, picks, and predictions.
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Eagles vs. Washington Odds
After spending most of the summer months as a six-point favorite over Washington, the are Eagles moved down to a 5.5-point favorite over the last week and have held there.
While this isn’t a line that suggests Philly is a vastly superior team, it is a fairly substantial point spread given this is a Week 1 division road game. Typically, road teams don’t lay a ton of points on the road in the first week.
In terms of the total, after spending most of the week sitting at 43 points, the total jumped down to 42.5 by mid-Friday afternoon. Here is a look at the current Eagles vs. Washington Week 1 odds:
| Spread | Money | Total | |
| Eagles | -5.5 (-110) | -245 | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Washington | +5.5 (-110) | +210 | U 42.5 (-110) |
| Spread | Money | Total | |
| Eagles | -5.5 (-115) | -250 | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Washington | +5.5 (-105) | +210 | U 42.5 (-110) |
It’s worth mentioning that you can get up to $1,000 of free bets and double your money on the Eagles via a special +200 super boost at FOX Bet this weekend. Get that offer in Pennsylvania by clicking here. Get it in New Jersey right here.
Win Probability
Let’s examine how the current odds stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model. This is a rare occurrence, but the ELO model actually matches the current point spread at Eagles -5.5; thus, there’s no indication of spread value between the two data points.
However, the same can’t be said for moneyline prices when compared with ELO win probability.
Currently, the Eagles are -245 on the moneyline at DraftKings, which translates to a 71% implied win probability. The current ELO number is 69%, meaning the FiveThirtyEight model suggests the moneyline price is a tad inflated and should instead sit around -223.
Meanwhile, Washington’s market win implied probability is essentially in line with the ELO model.
Where Is the Money Going?
Let’s take a quick look at the Eagles-Washington betting splits.
As of Friday afternoon, the Eagles are receiving the majority of spread bets across reporting sportsbooks at 65%. However, despite receiving such a high percentage of bets, only 42% of the spread money is on the Eagles. This tells us right now that the early-week big bettors are on Washington. We will monitor the money and update the splits on Sunday morning.
As for the total, bettors are overwhelmingly on the under. While 57% bettors are backing it, an astounding 86% of the money is on the under.
How to Watch Eagles vs. Washington
- Date: Sunday, September 13
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: FedExField (Landover, MD)
- Network: FOX
- Announcers: Kevin Burkhardt (play-by-play), Daryl Johnston (analyst), Pam Oliver (sideline)
- Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), WMAL 105.9FM/630AM (Washington)
How to Bet on Eagles vs. Washington
While bettors located in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Indiana are once again able to wager on the NFL this season, now bettors located in states such as Colorado and Illinois can also bet on football legally.
Ahead of Week 1, there are plenty of offers to grab.
DraftKings, which continues to offer new players $1,000 in free bets, has an awesome 100-1 odds special on any team to win their Week 1 matchup. Get these offers by clicking here.
FanDuel Sportsbook, which recently bumped its risk-free bet offer all the way up to $1,000, is rolling out its “Spread the Love” campaign for the Rams vs. Cowboys game. Bettors can get the Rams as a huge underdog at no-brainer odds against Dallas. Get these offers here.
Finally, as noted above, FOX Bet, which also gives away up to $1,000 in free bets, has a triple your money offer on the Eagles. Get it here in PA and here in NJ.
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Eagles vs. Washington Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated.
Why Backing the Eagles Makes Sense
Fast Starters
The Eagles are 4-0 straight up in Week 1 games under Doug Pederson, while also covering three of those four games. Comparatively, Ron Rivera teams are just 4-5 ATS in Week 1.
Head-to-head Dominance
The Eagles have straight up dominated this matchup over the last three seasons. Since Pederson took over in 2016, the Eagles have gone 6-2 straight up against Washington, including six straight wins. Overall, they are 5-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS at FedExField during this stretch.
Five of the Eagles’ six wins over Washington have been by double-digits. The only game in which the Eagles didn’t win by at least 10 points came back in Week 1 last season. You may remember that one because Washington busted an Eagles’ cover with six seconds left.
The Sweet Spot
The Eagles are 5-1 ATS under Pederson in games when they are favored between 5.5-6.5 points.
Why Backing Washington Makes Sense
And Then What Happens?
Despite big Week 1 success, the Eagles are only 6-8 ATS (3-4 ATS on the road) during September and only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite during September under Pederson.
Rough Go for Early Division Road Favorites
Road favorites in Week 1 division games are only 13-19 ATS since 2003 and just 2-5 ATS since start of 2015 season.
Big Rebounds
Underdogs that won between 0-5 games previous season are 144-118-5 ATS in Weeks 1-3. They are 52-39-1 ATS in Week 1.
A Note on the Total
A Strong Trend
The over is 24-11 in Eagles road games since Pederson took over as head coach. Jim Schwartz’s defenses have been great at home and not so great on the road. The over is also 5-2 in Eagles’ September road games and 8-4 overall against NFC East squads on the road.
Eagles vs. Washington Prediction
Since the start of the 2017 season, in which the Eagles began their Super Bowl march with a Week 1 win in Washington, Philadelphia has simply dominated this series. A perfect 6-0 record, a 5-1 ATS mark, and five double-digit wins.
Certainly, it would seem Washington is headed in the right direction with the hire of Ron Rivera. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio has considerable talent to work with up front, and it’s widely thought that his defensive line could be one of the best in football this season. Still, there are reasons that I keep coming back to the Eagles in this one – and none of thee reasons have anything to do with their recent success in this series.
I wonder how much the lack of minicamps and preseason action is going to stunt Washington in the early going. While the Eagles experienced the same disadvantage, they had the benefit of general continuity in terms of scheme and program. Moreover, the Eagles are still the more talented team. If a shuffled offensive line can hold its own against the Washington front, DeSean Jackson could be in line to repeat his 2019 Week 1 performance, the one in which he hauled in eight passes for 154 yards and two scores.
The Eagles defensive front should also have its way with a below average Washington offensive line, and though Dwayne Haskins had some success in a December loss to Philly, that front, along with a revamped Eagles secondary, should prove to be too much for the second-year quarterback to handle.
Bets We Like
The Eagles to win by 1-13 points at FanDuel Sportsbook (+140).
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New players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Get the Eagles (or any NFL team) to win in Week 1 at 100-1 odds (get it here).
Eagles vs. Washington Pick
The official pick is Eagles -5.5 over Washington.
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