FiveThirtyEight is Trying to Ruin Jahlil Okafor's Trade Value
Not that Okafor’s value is sky-high as it is, but I digress.
As we sit and wait (and Okafor sits and waits) to see what happens between the Sixers and their chosen suitor for Big Jah – likely the Pelicans – FiveThirtyEight is out here trying to squash whatever value Okafor may still have on the trade market. Here’s an excerpt from their piece that just went up, unsubtly titled “Does Jahlil Okafor Have A Place In Today’s NBA?“. COME ON, GUYS:
So we seem to know what Okafor does well, and what he doesn’t. And with the trade market for him as thin as it’s been, it seems the league is skeptical that a player such as Okafor can succeed in today’s NBA. There may be a good reason for that: Successful NBA teams haven’t really employed anyone with a game that looks like Okafor’s in quite some time.
I really hope FiveThirtyEight is blocked in the Pelicans’ facility. The crux of the piece isn’t Okafor shoddy defense, but his shoddy rebounding (which we have discussed before). Not only is his defensive real plus-minus “second-to-last among 70 qualified centers” – shut up – but his rebounding stats are “anemic numbers for a center, and ones that look even worse when you consider how he’s collecting them” – shut uppppp – and he “has shot 27 percent from outside 16 feet” – SHUT UP. But his rebounding is the big takeaway here:
While it may not be fair to judge Okafor’s defense just yet, his rebounding is another story. Going back to his days at Duke, Okafor has never rebounded especially well, particularly given his size. His total rebound rate (which is just the percent of available rebounds a player collects while he’s on the court) was 12.8 for the Sixers last year, and this year it’s fallen even lower to 11.6. Those are anemic numbers for a center, and ones that look even worse when you consider how he’s collecting them.
Okafor converts just 44.8 percent of his defensive rebound “chances”4 into rebounds. Among players who have played at least 15 minutes per game and 20 games this season, Okafor ranks 287th out of 294 players, coming in ahead of just two point guards, three shooting guards and, by professional rebounding standards, a pair of NBA Fatheads someone left on the court.
So, to recap: Okafor doesn’t do a good job of fighting for his boards, which is made worse by the fact that he isn’t in position for many in the first place.
A footnote on that 287th ranking adds more, saying if you discount deferred rebound chances, “the boards that Okafor has a chance for but allows a teammate to collect instead,” he’s actually 288th.
Look, FiveThirtyEight, I get it. Your whole thing is taking a look at things in sports, big and little, while using advanced statistics to analyze or back up what you’re saying. That’s cool. You’re good at it. But dude’s not gone yet, things are very testy around here, and no one has waited on a Woj Bomb like this since Kevin Durant turned his back on OKC – a move I’m pretty sure inspired the plot of The Fate of the Furious. Just give us some time, guys. We want this to be done. I’m sure you want this to be done. We all know it’s not that Jahlil Okafor is untalented, but his game is flawed. You even end your piece saying that the rumored deal return of a pick + Ajinca means “the league may have spoken on how it views a player of Okafor’s talents.” So stop trying to bring that even lower, guys. Just chill.