It’s hard to imagine Jared Dudley directly contributing to another Sixers win in this series, but who knows, anything is possible, I guess. Anyway, the Sixers have the Nets on the brink of elimination and will take the floor Tuesday night at Wells Fargo Center looking to turn out the lights once and for all on Brooklyn. If the current odds are any indication, this series appears to be just about over. Will the Sixers close it out? Will they cover the spread? Here’s what you need to know before betting on Sixers-Nets Game 5.
Here are the LIVE Sixers-Nets odds for Game 5, courtesy of our news odds tool, which you can check out after the jump.[sportsbook filters=”teams:Philadelphia 76ers”]
If you wanted to grab the Sixers to win the series, the time to do it was after Game 1 when they were a modest -180. That number reached -1000 prior to Game 4 and is now all the way up to -10000. There’s absolutely no value remaining on the Sixers side, but if you think an epic Philadelphia collapse is possible, you can grab the Nets with a +2000 payout at PointsBet. Good luck with that.
As for the Game 5 spread, the Sixers bounced between an 8 to 8.5-point favorite yesterday and are now currently a strong 9-point favorite at some of the best NJ online sportsbooks.
Free Bets and Parlay Promos
If you’re looking for some good deals, be sure to take advantage of PointsBet’s $50 free bet with no deposit and up to $1,000 in risk free bets with code BROADLINES.
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NBA Parlay Insurance. Place a bet of 4+ legs on any parlay during the playoffs at moneyline odds of -200 or greater. If you hit all but one of the bets, FanDuel will help ease the sting of a crushing loss by offering a cash refund of up to $25. With the Sixers currently a strong -390 moneyline favorite at FanDuel, you can take advantage of this offer by rolling them into your parlays tonight.
General Betting Trends
Let’s first start with each team’s overall performance against the spread. The Sixers haven’t been a good ATS bet this season, going only 41-45. The Nets, on the other hand, have been a solid spread performer, compiling a 46-40 ATS record.
The Sixers are 21-20 as a home favorite this season, while the Nets are a solid 21-16 as a road underdog.
Sixers Have Thrived as a Big Favorite
While those home/road trends favor Brooklyn, Philadelphia has been the better performer this season in this spread range. The Sixers are 10-5 ATS when favored between 6.5 and 9.5 points, while the Nets are only 7-8 ATS when an underdog in the same range. The Sixers are also 8-5 ATS when favored at home by at least 8 points.
League-wide, home favorites of at least 8 points are 5-2 ATS this postseason.
History Shows the Nets are Up Against It
Recent historical data in games that parallel this series’ path favor the Sixers. Home teams that have won three-straight games entering Game 5 after dropping the opener are 6-1 straight up and 4-3 ATS in closeout games since 2005. In that same time frame, home teams favored by at least 8 points in Game 5s of any playoff round have won a staggering 45 of 50 games outright and are 29-20-1 ATS. Such teams are also 18-12-1 ATS in Game 5s of the opening round. But wait, there’s more! Home teams favored by at least 8 points that are coming off a Game 4 win are 23-0 straight up (and 13-9-1 against the spread) in Game 5s since the start of the 2005 postseason.
In other words, the Nets might be in trouble.
Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s go a little bit deeper and look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Nets and Sixers have split the cover in their 8 games, with each team 2-2 ATS at home and on the road. The Sixers, however, not only hold a 3-1 series lead, they also lead 3-1 in covers this postseason, too.
Since this is the playoffs, the level of competition is an important contextual factor to consider, so it’s probably worth noting Brooklyn is 25-20 ATS against teams .500 or better and 20-17 ATS against such teams as an underdog. The Sixers, meanwhile, are 16-14 ATS when playing teams that are .500 or better as a favorite.
What About Joel Embiid?
Will Joel Embiid play? Your guess is as good as mine. Probably? Just know this. If Embiid plays, Philly is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS this season when Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick, and Embiid start together. As for when Embiid sits out, the Sixers are 8-11 both SU and ATS this season.
The Sixers seem like a virtual lock to close out the series tonight. It feels like the Nets took their last big swing on Saturday afternoon and came up short. I don’t know if the Sixers are good enough to blow the Nets out of the gym tonight, but I think they’ll pull away late and cover the number.