Hey there, potential sports bettor person. Did you know the Sixers haven’t won at Scotiabank Arena since November 10, 2012? Did you know that’s 14 straight losses in Toronto? Did you know that Royal Ivey and Damien Wilkins each logged double-digit minutes off the bench that night for the Sixers?

Of course you did—about the losing streak, anyway. That’s because the Sixers have been M.I.S.E.R.A.B.L.E. north of the border for over six years, including their Game 1 loss to the Raptors on Saturday night, and they now have to find a way to a win as a sizable underdog tonight just to send the series back to Philadelphia tied.

This is Brett Brown’s plight.

The Sixers are a talented team, one that should be desperate to find a way to steal a road win. Will they do it? Or, will they at the very least find a way to play a competitive game and cover the spread?

This is the sports bettor’s plight.

I have no way of helping Brown, but I can at least help inform you, person who wants to bet on Game 2, so let’s take a closer look at this one and see what we can find.

Odds

Here are the LIVE Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 2, courtesy of our new odds tool, which you can check out after the jump.

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Free bets and parlay promos

If you want to grab the Sixers to win the series, now is probably the time to do it. Currently, the best series value on both sides is at PointsBet. The Sixers are +341 and the Raptors are -435.

If you’re looking for some good deals, be sure to take advantage of PointsBet’s  $50 free bet with no deposit and up to $1,000 in risk free bets with code BROADLINES.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NBA Parlay Insurance. Place a bet of 4+ legs on any parlay during the playoffs at moneyline odds of -200 or greater. If you hit all but one of the bets, FanDuel will help ease the sting of a crushing loss by offering a cash refund of up to $25. FanDuel is also offering multi-sport parlay insurance with the same guidelines, meaning you can roll playoff hockey and basketball bets into parlays with regular season baseball plays.

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they are offering a different type of insurance promotion. Users that place a single money line bet on any NBA Playoff game from now until May 3 will be protected up to $50 from a loss if their team scores 100 points first and goes on to lose the game.

General betting trends

Let’s first start with each team’s overall performance against the spread. The Sixers haven’t been a good ATS bet this season, going only 42-46. The Raptors have been slightly worse, compiling a 41-46-1 ATS record. Remember–just because a team is good, that doesn’t mean they are also a good bet.

In terms of home/road and favorite/underdog trends, the Sixers are only 11-14 ATS overall as an underdog and 10-13 ATS as a road underdog while the Raptors are 32-40-1 ATS as a favorite overall and 21-24 ATS as a home favorite. It’s worth noting the Raptors have been favored in all 45 home games this season, which makes sense because they are winning 77.8% percent of their games at Scotiabank Arena.

Game specific

Kawhi Lenoard was stupid in Game 1, tying his season-high of 45 points and putting up his third best margin of the season at +26. He made difficult shots and was generally as close to unstoppable as one can become. Gonna be hard to replicate that kind of effort in Game 2. The Sixers, to their credit, kept the game within reach and were not outscored by more than two in any one quarter after the first period the other night. This game should be closer unless the Raptors have just completely broken the Sixers’ will (possible).

The Sixers have been resilient

The Sixers have been excellent this season after a loss, going 20-12 ATS. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been an uninspiring 29-32-1 ATS after a win.

A Sign of things to come

If you’re looking to back the Sixers tonight, the following information is going to hurt. Road teams that lose the series opener and face odds similar to the Sixers’ in tonight’s contest haven’t fared well in Game 2. At all. Consider the following:

  • Road teams that lose Game 1 on the road are 15-19-1 ATS and only 10-25 straight up in Game 2 of any postseason round when an underdog of between 6 and 7 points.
  • Road teams that lose Game 1 on the road by 10+ points are 9-13 ATS and 7-15 SU in Game 2 of any postseason round when an underdog of between six and seven points.
  • Road teams that lost Game 1 on the road by 10+ points are 2-7 ATS and 2-7 SU in Game 2 of the second round when an underdog between six and seven points.
  • Road underdogs of any spread that lost Game 1 by at least 10 points are 41-50-1 ATS and 20-72 SU in Game 2 during all postseason rounds. They are only 10-15 ATS and 5-20 SU in Game 2 of the second round.

See a pattern here? Teams that get handled in Game 1 rarely win Game 2, and they often don’t cover.

More on the spread

Let’s talk about how each team has done with similar spreads this season. The Sixers are 2-6 ATS and SU when an underdog of at least six points. When the spread is between exactly five and eight points, they are only 3-9 ATS. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 11-8 ATS when favored in that same range. It’s worth pointing out that Toronto is only 23-25-1 ATS when a favorite of at least six points, but is 3-1 ATS this postseason. Finally, they are only 5-9-1 ATS when favored between 6-10 points against teams that are .500 or better.

Head-to-head trends

Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s go a little bit deeper and look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Raptors have a clear advantage here, going 4-1 ATS and SU against the Sixers this season. Unsurprisingly, Toronto is also a perfect 3-0 ATS and SU at home, which includes its Game 1 win on Saturday night.

What about Joel Embiid?

Will Joel Embiid play? Your guess is as good as mine. I think so?

That stinks…ha.

Just know this. If Embiid plays, Philly is 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS this season when Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick, and Embiid start together. As for when Embiid sits out, the Sixers are 8-11 both SU and ATS this season.

Prediction

I hate, absolutely hate, the historical Game 2 trends working against the Sixers tonight, but I’m also not thrilled about the Raptors’ ATS performance as a favorite this season. They have covered less than 50% of their games, both as a favorite and home favorite, so it’s not unreasonable the Sixers give a spirited effort and cover the number. Again, not a game I’m in love with, but I’d probably roll with the Sixers to keep it close tonight and score the cover.

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