It all comes down to this. A decisive Game 7 in which the Sixers will look to ride the momentum of their Game 6 rout of the Raptors. Will a presumably healthier Joel Embiid, who is coming off what Brett Brown called a “stupid” +40 on Thursday night, lead the way? Will Ben Simmons and his shorter tights rise to the occasion in what is to this point the most important game of his young career? Like this:

https://twitter.com/_MarcusD3_/status/1126666868939472896

Or, is it going to be Kawhi Leonard going off one more time, carrying the Raptors on his back to an Eastern Conference Finals date with Milwaukee? Let’s break it down.

Odds

Here are the Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 7:

DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread Money Total
Sixers +6.5 +225 209.5
Raptors -6.5 -265 209.5

PointsBet

Spread Money Total
Sixers +6 +215 209.5
Raptors -6 -270 209.5

 

The Sixers were as much as a 6.5-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook shortly after the Game 7 odds were first posted. The spread briefly dipped down to +5.5 by early Saturday afternoon, but as of early Sunday morning, the Sixers are back to where they started at +6.5. Maybe it has something to do with this:

Nothing like some organizational drama ahead of a franchise’s most important game in roughly 18 years to get you feeling good.

The Raptors are getting 58% of the total wagers and 61% of the money across reporting markets. In terms of the totals market for this one, 33% of the total bets are on the under but so is 58% of the total money. It seems the big bettors like it stay under 209. More on that in a bit.

Money line bettors looking for the best value on Philly should jump over to DraftKings where the Sixers are +225. Money must be coming in hot on Toronto at DraftKings because the Sixers were only +200 late Saturday afternoon. Those picking Toronto outright should also head to DraftKings where you can get the Raptors at -265. That is a markedly higher price than the -235 you could have bought them at yesterday.

Home Teams Have Been Tough in Game 7s

I’ll preface the data I’m about to show here by saying that in many cases, home teams tend to win Game 7 because they are simply the superior team. Watching this series, one could certainly make the claim that home-court advantage has played a role (home teams are 4-2), but can anyone say Toronto is definitively the better team? If anything, I think a case could be made that Philadelphia has shown itself to be the more talented team, and that perhaps the biggest obstacle standing in their way of advancing is themselves.

That being said, the Sixers are up against some pretty daunting recent history on Sunday night. Let’s start with some general Game 7 trends and then work to more specific ones. Favored home teams are 24-19 ATS and 31-12 outright in Game 7s since the 2005 NBA Playoffs.

Sizable spreads like the one in this game have also indicated trouble. The Sixers were a 6.5-point underdog on Friday afternoon, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of survival. Home teams favored by at least six points are 12-7 ATS and a very strong 17-2 SU, including nine straight outright wins since 2005.  The only two teams to overcome this spot in that span are the 2012-2013 Chicago Bulls and the 2011-2012 Los Angeles Clippers. If we get more specific with this trend, home teams favored between exactly six and seven points are 6-5 ATS and 10-1 SU. Not great!

Does the Game 6 Blowout Mean Anything?

So we know that road teams, particularly those that are healthy underdogs, are in a tough spot heading into Game 7s. That’s fine, but I also wondered how Game 6 blowouts impacted the decisive games of past series. Specifically, I wanted to see how road teams fared in Game 7s after winning the previous game. To my surprise, they haven’t fared very well. Road underdogs coming off a win of any margin are only 12-15 ATS and 7-20 SU in Game 7s since 2005, and when the margin is 10+ points, those teams are 9-9 ATS and 6-12 SU.

Moreover, road underdogs of at least six points that are coming off a 10+ point win are only 2-3 ATS and a miserable 0-5 SU. So, if you’re working theory is that a convincing win will create confidence and momentum heading into Game 7, I get it, but that hypothesis hasn’t historically held up.

As for the Sixers’ own performance after a win as an underdog in the previous game, they are only 4-8 ATS this season.

Raptors’ Resiliency is Problematic

The Raptors haven’t done a great job covering the spread after a loss, going only 13-14 ATS, but they’ve typically played well after losing, compiling a 18-9 SU record off a loss. They’ve also been one of the league’s elite teams over the last three years following a loss with a 59-32 record in such a spot.

Equally concerning are the Sixers’ road struggles. They’ve won only 10 of their 27 road games coming off a win this season and are 6-9 SU when playing as a road underdog after a win.

Rest Easy?

The Raptors are 6-2 ATS in home games this season when coming off exactly two days rest. The Sixers, meanwhile, are only 3-5 ATS as underdogs coming off two days rest.

Going Under

Anecdotally, the under feels like the right play here. Game 6 hit the over by a bucket, but needed dreadful garbage time basketball to get there and the majority of the games in this series have slanted towards under plays. Pair that with recent historical data of Game 7s, and there’s plenty to like about the under in this one.

Under plays are 26-19 in Game 7s since 2005. When the total is set at 210 or less, as it is here, under plays are 24-17, and they are 17-13 when the home team is favored by at least five points. Maybe we can chalk up these diminished offensive outputs to nerves or apprehension? Also note the over is 5-12 in Raptors games at Scotiabank Arena when they are coming off a loss this season. Finally, the over is only 7-13 when Toronto is coming off a loss as a favorite and 4-8 when the Sixers win as an underdog. Pretty convincing stuff.

Prediction

I look at this line and keep thinking to myself, “Damn. That’s a lot of points.” Then, I ask myself, “Why, though?” Is this a revealing line suggesting the Sixers are about to lose by double digits on the road for the third time in this series, or is it a tremendous opportunity for value. That’s a lot of points in a decisive game for what may be the better team. The overall success of home teams in Game 7s is concerning, for sure, but as I pointed out above, in many cases the clearly superior team is the home team. We can’t definitively say that here. Despite the trends working against Philly, I’ll take my chances with the points in what I expect to be a close game that won’t be decided until late in the fourth quarter. Give me the Sixers +6.5. 

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