Sixers vs. Warriors Betting Pick (March 23, 2021)

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Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday night, the Philadelphia 76ers are on the road taking on the Golden State Warriors. The Sixers enter play at 30-13, which is the best record in the Eastern Conference. Their 30 wins are matched by only the Western Conference’s Utah Jazz. The Warriors are 22-21 on the season, one which saw Steph Curry lose his running mate Klay Thompson prior to the season with a torn right Achilles tendon.

Let’s get into our Sixers-Warriors betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.

Sixers vs. Warriors Betting Pick (March 23, 2021)

The Philadelphia 76ers have kept their high-speed train going at breakneck speed despite the absence of franchise center and early MVP candidate Joel Embiid.

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Although it’s not how Doc Rivers and his staff likely envisioned it, the Sixers walked away from a road matchup with the New York Knicks with a 101-100 overtime victory. Shake Milton once again came up large as the Sixers’ primary bench scoring, dropping 21 points and dishing out three assists.

Despite struggling from the field at a combined 13-35, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons combined for 36 points, while Furkan Korkmaz and Danny Green combined to shoot 6-13 from beyond the arc to fill in the floor-stretching shoes of Seth Curry.

The win over New York took the Sixers to 8-1 over their last nine games, including 4-1 since losing Joel Embiid to a bone bruise in his knee following a dunk against the Washington Wizards.

In fairness, the Sixers played four of those five games in the friendly confines of Wells Fargo Center, where the team has gone 19-4. They’ll now embark on a five-game road trip including games against the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Cavaliers.

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The Warriors have had a relatively decent season, especially considering how many pundits declared them dead in the water when the news came out that Klay Thompson had torn his right Achilles tendon prior to the season. Although they’ve gone just 9-14 on the road, Golden State has been solid at home, going 13-7 in 20 games at Chase Center.

The Warriors are 2-1 in their last three games, including a 108-94 victory over the Houston Rockets and a 116-103 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies did, however, exact their revenge in a 111-103 home win on Saturday.

The back-to-back results against Memphis are notable in that Golden State was able to pull off a split despite the absence of Steph Curry, who suffered a nasty tailbone injury against t he Houston Rockets. His status ahead of tonight’s game will certainly have implications on a number of team-based betting markets.

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Sixers vs. Warriors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Warriors at DraftKings Sportsbook:

    • Spread: Sixers -4.5, Warriors +4.5
    • Moneyline: Sixers -175, Warriors +143
    • Total: 217

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

 

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Sixers just a 45% chance of winning with a +1 point line. The oddsmakers clearly disagree, with the Sixers’ implied win probability based on the moneyline at 61%.

Sixers to Win and Over 217 Points (+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Philadelphia 76ers are 8-2 in their last ten games and have won the second-most games on the road of any Eastern Conference team with 11. They’re also 5-0 in each of their last five games against Western Conference teams.

Although the Warriors have won two of their last three games, it’s worth noting that the quality of their competition hasn’t exactly been world beaters. Golden State took down a .500 Memphis Grizzlies team in the first half of a back-to-back and dropped the second game. Prior to that, they were able to pick up a road win against a Houston Rockets squad that’s gone just 12-30 on the season.

Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid and Seth Curry again in this one, but Golden State will also be shorthanded as Steph Curry will miss yet another game for the Warriors with a contusion of his tailbone.

The Sixers have seen the over hit in seven of their last games against teams from the Western Conference and it stands to reason that the likelihood of an open-court game favors a Ben Simmons-led lineup.

If you’re looking for added value beyond a Sixers moneyline bet, consider a same-game parlay with over 217 points.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Each Team to Score Over 100 Points (-300, FOX Bet)

The Sixers have scored at least 100 points in 30 of their last 31 games. They’ve allowed their opponents to put up at least 100 points in eight of their last eleven games. Golden State has put up at least 100 points in 20 of their last 23 games, including in back-to-back games without Curry. They’ve allowed at least 100 points in 14 of their last 16 games, with only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets failing to hit the century mark.

Although this doesn’t have the same financial upside as other prop bets, it’s a solid bet and could be a worthwhile add to a multi-game parlay.

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Sixers to Win the First Quarter (-135, BetMGM)

The Sixers have gotten out to hot starts, which has propelled them to an 8-2 record in their last ten games. Philadelphia has won the first quarter in six of their seven games since the NBA All-Star break:

  • 3/11/21 @ CHI: 30-23
  • 3/12/21 @ WSH: 32-15
  • 3/14/21 v. SAS: 33-22
  • 3/17/21 v. MIL: 25-18
  • 3/20/21 v. SAC: 42-21
  • 3/21/21 @ NYK: 23-15

The important thing to note about their first quarter success is that they’ve done it three times at home and three times on the road, which would otherwise dispel the notion that the Sixers are only capable of getting off to a good start in games played at the Wells Fargo Center.

To their credit, the Warriors have won the first quarter in five of their last ten games, but they did most of their damage when Steph Curry was in the lineup, which will not be the case against Philadelphia.

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Sixers vs. Warriors Prediction

Pick: The chances of this game becoming an open-court, free-flowing matchup are high. Expect Ben Simmons to have a big game facilitating and on the boards as he collapses the Warriors’ defense. Take the Sixers and Over 217 Points.

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