It’s official. The recent four-game losing streak for a shorthanded Sixers team is a thing of the past, as they are back to playing elite basketball.Tonight, they host the Atlanta Hawks for the second time in three days, having disposed of this injury-riddled squad by 43 points on Wednesday night. Understandably, a closing line in that rout that had Philly laying 9.5 points has opened around the same number today and lingers close to a double-digit spread.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Hawks vs. Sixers game picks and make some predictions for this April 30, 2021 matchup.

Will Philadelphia cruise to an easy win and cover again, or is this line a trap for bettors looking to exploit a Hawks team without so many of its key contributors on the front end of a back-to-back?

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Hawks vs. Sixers Pick (April 30, 2021)

With each of Philly’s last three games finishing as 30+ point blowouts, the Sixers have had the perfect storm happen to ease their regular lineup back into the flow of things. No player on the Sixers’ roster logged more than 26 minutes in the win the other night, so we should see some fresh legs out there this evening.

Atlanta is still in the midst of a miserable injury stretch with Kevin Huerter (12 points per game), De’Andre Hunter (16 ppg), and Cam Reddish (11 ppg) all currently listed as out for this one. Trae Young (25 ppg), Bogdan Bogdanovic (15 ppg), and Clint Capela (15 ppg, 14 rebounds per game) all carry questionable tags. If you’re Atlanta coach Nate McMillan, do you risk any of those players on the road here against a suddenly red-hot Sixers team, or do you give them an extra day of rest for a far easier matchup against Chicago tomorrow back at home?

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Hawks vs. Sixers Odds

Here’s the line for the Hawks and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Hawks +7 (-108) +240 O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers -7 (-113) -295 U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets we Like with a Sixers Win

Philadelphia 76ers to Win AND Over 212.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -155)

If you like the Sixers to win this one, jumping over 212.5 points should be a fair ask. To begin, Atlanta is fresh off consecutive sub 90-point efforts. The only other time this season the league’s 15th-ranked scoring offense (112.8 ppg) tallied less than 100 points in back-to-back games, it responded by scoring 115 points the next time out.

Before their recent two-game slide, the Hawks played 16 of their previous 17 games to at least 213 total points. Also, in their twelve prior front ends of games on back-to-back days, they have averaged 112.5 ppg.

If Atlanta can give us 100+ in this one, then we need 113 or more from the Sixers. This should be attainable for a team that has shot over 53% from the field in each of its last two games. Philly has averaged 116.6 ppg in its last nine games, topping 113 points in seven of those. Also of note, in 21 losses to teams above .500 this season, the Hawks have allowed a whopping 122.0 ppg.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Philadelphia 76ers Over 25.5 Points in Each Quarter (FOXBET +162)

The Sixers went wire-to-wire the other night against the Hawks, dropping 26 or more points in each quarter, despite the game essentially being done and dusted after the first quarter.

 

Philadelphia did the same in their previous game with 26+ points per stanza en route to a 31-point victory. Philly had at least four of their five preferred starters available for both of those routs, so it seems they are prone to scoring more than 25 points in a quarter with decent regularity when they have their best guys on the court.

In fact, in their last seven games with at least four of their usual starting lineup on the floor (and one of them being Joel Embiid), the 76ers have scored 25 or more points in 25 of 28 quarters. They also scored 25 or more in all four quarters in five of those seven games.

Granted, 25 points itself won’t get it done for this prop, but three of those games saw the Sixers win it.  Having a quarter of 25 points as the only red flag in the two other games shows just how consistent the offense is right now when they have their best guys available, like they do tonight.

On the other side, in the Hawks’ last 11 losses to teams above .500, they have allowed 25 or more points in 37 of 44 quarters.

They have allowed 26 points or more in each quarter of four of their last nine losses in this same role. Three of the other losses in that stretch saw Atlanta allow 26+ points in three quarters and 23 or more points in the other quarter (within one basket of winning this prop).

With a diminished Hawks team that has to try a drastically different approach tonight to compete, we expect the Sixers to have every opportunity to score 26 or more in each quarter with their recent hot shooting.

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Hawks vs. Sixers Prediction

Listen, we have been riding the Sixers’ under the total train quite often this season, and with good reason, as they have played 34 of their 62 games under the number (54.8%). However, we are going to buck that tendency tonight and play an over in a head-to-head series that had sailed past the number in five of the last six meetings coming into this season.

With Young, Capela, and Bogdanovic all questionable, it leaves the door open for some surprise boosts in offense here tonight for the Hawks. I don’t see the sense in playing Young ahead of an easier game tomorrow, as it’s hard to imagine McMillan running him out there on back-to-back nights right out of the gate. However, Bogdanovic’s presence would give Atlanta at least two dangerous shooters to couple with Lou Williams. And if Capela can go, he’s likely to give more than his nine point, eight rebound effort in 24 limited minutes Wednesday night.

Regardless, we discussed earlier the likelihood that Atlanta would rebound from two games in a row of failing to reach 90 points. Whether it is an uptempo game plan, hotter shooting from those available, or just a lack of mental focus from the Sixers’ defense against a potentially weakened lineup that they just manhandled two nights ago, it feels to us the Hawks will find a way to score close to 110 points tonight.

The Sixers, as mentioned, have a bunch of fresh bodies who have missed time and gotten to play sparing minutes in their returns due to three blowouts in a row. The team still needs to firm up its continuity and chemistry for the impending playoffs. Philadelphia also needs to play 48 minutes of basketball each night to lock up wins in hopes of catching Brooklyn for the top seed in the East. Perhaps tonight could be a training ground type of game for them where they test a quicker tempo to mimic what they would see against Milwaukee and/or Brooklyn in the playoffs.

Trends to Know

  • We love the Hawks elite foul shooting and that they have played four straight games over after allowing 125 or more points their previous time out.
  • In fact, Atlanta has played six of their last seven over after both a SU loss and an ATS loss.
  • The Hawks have played six of their last eight on the road over the number against teams with winning home records, more specifically hitting the over in four of their last five at opponents with above .600 home records.
  • This pairs well with the fact that the 76ers have played 20 of their last 29 home games over against teams with losing road records.

ATS Pick

Expect there to be a points explosion tonight, as the Hawks have played 25 of their last 35 games after a double-digit loss over the total.

Our Pick: OVER 220 total points

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