Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 14, 2021)

phillies blue jays odds pick prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies failed to complete their first three-game road sweep in over three years yesterday, but did leave town with their first three-game road victory since the 2019 season. They will try to carry that momentum into a three-game road set against the Toronto Blue Jays, one that will take place in Dunedin, Florida. The Phillies will send Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) to the hill, while the Blue Jays will counter with Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA).

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds for the opener of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.

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Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds (May 14, 2021)

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds for this May 14, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)

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Phillies vs. Blue Jays Betting Prediction

After going through the motions in a complacent 5-1 loss to the Nationals in yesterday’s series finale in Washington, the Phils head south for their first interleague action of the season.

Vince Velasquez will get the call for the first time since the Phillies blew three separate leads after the eighth inning following his last start in Atlanta.

Velasquez went 5 1/3 innings pitched with just one run allowed and still watched his team find a way to lose 8-7 in extra innings. The right-hander has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts, but the problem for Phillies’ backers tonight is that he just does not tend to pitch deep into games. That means a sizable chunk of the game must be navigated by Philadelphia’s bullpen, which often remains a roller coaster ride.

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Moreover, the Phillies have lost seven of Velasquez’s last 10 starts. He has only reached six innings in two of those outings.

The righty has allowed five of his six home runs this season on the road, a trend that has plagued him throughout his career. The Blue Jays are the perfect team to exploit that vulnerability, as they are third in MLB with 1.42 home runs per game and hit a blistering 1.91 per game at home. Velasquez has allowed four home runs and eight walks in three career starts against Toronto.

He was also on the mound for the Phillies’ ridiculous 9-8 loss to the Blue Jays last August.

The Blue Jays will counter with former Mets starter Steven Matz. Toronto is 5-2 in his starts this season, supporting him with 6.43 runs per game, which is why he already has five wins despite a relatively high ERA.

He has had mixed results against Philly over the course of his career, but he has seen his teams win three of his last five starts against the Phils. He will be facing a Philadelphia lineup likely missing J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius tonight, with Gregorius boasting a 7-for-16 (.438) mark against Matz throughout his career.

While this is the Phillies’ first game against the American League, Toronto is currently 7-1 against National League opponents.

They return home after a 10 game road trip that culminated with a sweep of the Braves in Atlanta. They are 7-4 so far in Dunedin.

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Betting Trends to Know

We dove into the trends, and, frankly, they don’t look great for the Phillies.

Working against the Phils

  • 7-15 L22 on road against above .500 teams
  • 24-60 L64 as road dogs
  • 2-5 L7 against LHP
  • 1-6 L7 interleague road games

Working for the Jays:

  • 6-1 L7 home games
  • 6-0 L6 interleague games, all against the NL East
  • 4-0 L4 interleague games against RHP
  • 5-1 L6 home games against RHP
  • 4-1 L5 as a favorite and 7-3 L10 as a home favorite

H2H Trends

  • Toronto 12-4 L16 as home team
  • Toronto 20-8 L28 overall

One other note: Toronto has won both opening games of series at home against National League opponents so far, tallying a total of 22 runs in the two victories.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Pick

The Blue Jays know they have difficult series against Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees coming up, so this series should be of great importance to them, trying to set themselves up as much as possible for tough divisional play by getting some wins against a 7-12 road team in the Phillies.

The banged up Phils brought no energy yesterday in the loss, and I don’t believe they are good enough at this juncture to just flip the switch against a quality AL team tonight. Toronto should find a way to win their fifth home game against the Phils in their last six tries here.

Our Pick: Toronto -148 (DraftKings)

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